Samson Mow, the CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3, publicly advocated for Germany to adopt Bitcoin as part of its national strategic reserves.
In a recent appearance at the German Bundestag, Mow discussed Bitcoin strategies for nation-states, expressing his belief that Germany should acquire 281,267 Bitcoin (BTC) for their strategic reserve.
“I hope that Germany is successful in acquiring 281,267 BTC for its future strategic reserves,” Mow posted on X.
The initiative reportedly brought together Members of Parliament and Bitcoin supporters to explore Bitcoin’s potential as a financial tool for the country.
Many thanks to @JoanaCotar for inviting me to speak at the German Bundestag on #Bitcoin strategies for nation-states. @BTCimBundestag has been a very successful and much needed initiative, and I look forward to more from @btcverband in the future.
This summer in the United States, speculation was growing about whether Donald Trump will announce the creation of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Samson Mow’s role in Bitcoin advocacy
Samson Mow is a prominent figure in the Bitcoin community, known for his work as CEO of Jan3, a company focused on advancing Bitcoin adoption globally.
Before his role at Jan3, Mow was an advisor to El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021. In that capacity, he helped shape the country’s Bitcoin strategy, which included using Bitcoin as a national reserve to stabilize and grow the economy.
Mow advocates for nation-states to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset, much like gold. He believes that countries can diversify their financial systems by holding Bitcoin and reducing reliance on traditional currencies.
A significant Bitcoin transaction was recorded on Sept. 2 when an investor purchased 1,000 BTC for $57.3 million.
This whale purchase marks the second time in four days that 1,000 Bitcoin (BTC) were acquired on Binance, bringing the total accumulation to 2,000 BTC. The investor currently holds 8,559 BTC, valued at $490 million.
The increase in Bitcoin holdings coincides with Bitcoin’s price dropping by nearly 8% over the past week as the markets enter September. Bitcoin briefly touched $61,000 on August 29 before slumping and almost touching $57,000 on Sept. 1.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced losses in six out of the last seven September months, with average losses of around 4.5% during those years.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
A WHALE BOUGHT 1,000 BITCOIN WORTH $57.3 MILLION ON BINANCE TODAY.
IN THE LAST 4 DAYS, THIS WHALE HAS ACCUMULATED 2000 BTC AND NOW HOLD A TOTAL OF 8559 BTC WORTH $490 MILLION. pic.twitter.com/J7LK3vdLeY
Despite this downward trend, an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut could trigger a Bitcoin rally, according to QCP. Rising Bitcoin dominance, declining crypto exchange balances, and strong market fundamentals are positioning Bitcoin for a potentially bullish phase ahead.
On the flip side, Bitfinex analysts caution that Bitcoin may experience a significant decline of up to 20% due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
While a 25 basis point cut by the Fed could lead to long-term gains for Bitcoin by increasing liquidity, a more aggressive 50 basis point cut might trigger an initial price spike followed by a correction as recession fears grow.
Will Bitcoin bounce back?
The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges dropped to its lowest level this year, signaling low market liquidity and reduced investor movement of coins.
This could lead to a Bitcoin bounce. Other potential catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth include a weakening US dollar, rising US public debt, and positive signals from the options market, which could push the price higher later this year.
CME Group is set to introduce a new Bitcoin futures contract, dubbed Bitcoin Friday futures, on September 30, pending regulatory approval.
These smaller-sized contracts are designed to attract retail investors who may find existing offerings or the price of Bitcoin (BTC) too large and expensive.
Priced at one-fiftieth of a Bitcoin, Bitcoin Friday Futures — or BFF contracts — will be cash-settled, meaning they won’t settle in crypto. They will expire every Friday, providing traders with a more accessible and flexible option for managing their Bitcoin exposure, according to a press release.
The BFF contracts will be listed every Thursday for trading the following Friday, allowing participants to trade the nearest two Fridays at any given time. This new product aims to help investors mitigate weekend price volatility by closely tracking the spot price of Bitcoin.
Earlier on August 27, Nasdaq announced plans to list Bitcoin index options trading that will track the price of Bitcoin represented by the CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time index.
Bitcoin contracts
Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group’s Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products, emphasized that these contracts allow institutional and retail traders to fine-tune their Bitcoin exposure on a regulated exchange.
The contracts will settle to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant, ticker symbol ‘BRRNY,’ a benchmark also used by spot Bitcoin ETFs, enhancing liquidity and market efficiency during U.S. trading hours.
“By settling to the BRRNY, the benchmark used by leading spot bitcoin ETFs, traders will also benefit from growing liquidity and the ability to more efficiently capture market moves during U.S. hours,”
Giovanni Vicioso.
Interactive Brokers, Plus500, and Webull have expressed support for the launch, highlighting the product’s flexibility, cost-effectiveness, and appeal to a broad range of investors—mainly retail investors.
This launch is part of CME Group’s ongoing efforts to expand its cryptocurrency derivatives offerings following the success of its existing Bitcoin futures and Micro Bitcoin futures products.
Earlier this year, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETF trading, which led many large financial institutions to file for their own spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin price has retreated for two consecutive days as last week’s momentum in the crypto and stock market faded.
Bitcoin (BTC) retreated from Sunday, Aug. 26 high of $64,960 to $62,300. Still, there are four main reasons why the coin may stage a comeback and retest the important resistance point at $68,000.
Futures open interest is rising
Third-party data shows that demand for Bitcoin in the futures market is making a strong comeback. Data from SoSoValue suggest that interest jumped to $34.7 billion on Aug. 26, its highest point since Aug. 2 and much higher than this month’s low of $26.65 billion. It has also risen for three consecutive days.
Futures open interest is an important figure that shows the number of contracts that have not been settled. A high figure is a sign that there are more participants in the market, which indicates more demand among market participants.
More signs of Bitcoin demand are in the exchange-traded funds market. Data shows that most ETFs recorded inflows on Monday, Aug. 26, for the eighth consecutive day. Total inflows rose to over $202 million, an increase from Friday’s $252 million.
These funds added $506 million last week after gaining $32 million a week earlier, and this trend may continue. Altogether, spot Bitcoin ETFs have had over $18 billion in inflows, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust being the most active.
The most recent filings by hedge funds showed that firms like Millennium Management, Citadel, Schonfeld, and Susquehanna had invested in Bitcoin ETFs. Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had also invested in these ETFs.
Bitcoin addresses are rising
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that the number of active Bitcoin addresses is rising. According to SoSoValue, active Bitcoin addresses rose to 671,000 on Aug. 6, up from 538,000 on Sunday. The number is nearing the month-to-date high of 725,000.
More data shows that new addresses in Bitcoin’s network are rising. New addresses rose to 264,000 on Monday, up from 253,000 a day earlier. These numbers mean that there is still demand for Bitcoin in the crypto community.
Additionally, Bitcoin may benefit from interest rate cuts as it has done in the past. In a statement on Friday, Jerome Powell noted that the bank would likely start cutting rates in September.
The size of the cut will depend on the upcoming personal consumption expenditure and non-farm payroll data. A weak jobs report will raise the odds of a jumbo 0.50% cut.
Bitcoin does well when the Fed is cutting rates, as it did in 2020 when the Fed intervened because of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also rose in 2017 as the Fed slashed rates and then reversed in 2018 and 2022 when it hiked. It raised rates four times in 2028 and six in 2022 as inflation rose.
Additionally, $68,000 is an important level since it is along the series of lower highs that Bitcoin has been forming since March. The first one was at $73,800, followed by $72,000 in June, and $70,000 in July. A break above $68,000 will likely be a sign of a bullish breakout.
Hợp đồng mở (OI) cho các hợp đồng tương lai Bitcoin trên Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hiện đang ở mức cao nhất kể từ tháng 3 năm 2022.
Dữ liệu từ Coinglass cho thấy hiện có 2,98 tỷ đô la giá trị các hợp đồng được mở trên CME và tổng OI Bitcoin trên các sàn giao dịch phái sinh đã tăng lên mức cao hàng năm.
K33 cho biết trong một ghi chú nghiên cứu, những người chơi lớn tiếp tục thúc đẩy hoạt động thị trường phái sinh sau sự phấn khích về khả năng phê duyệt quỹ Bitcoin ETF giao ngay đầu tiên của Hoa Kỳ.
Nhà phân tích cấp cao Vetle Lunde của K33 cho biết trong báo cáo:
“Hoạt động tổ chức vẫn tăng cao. Các ETP BTC trên toàn cầu đã ghi nhận dòng tiền đột biến kể từ thông báo của BlackRock, cho thấy nhu cầu đáng kể của các tổ chức trong việc tăng mức độ tiếp xúc với BTC.”
OI cho các hợp đồng vĩnh viễn cũng vẫn dương trên mức 0,01%. Funding rate, được tính toán bởi sàn giao dịch, chuyển sang dương khi thị trường nghiêng về xu hướng tăng và chuyển sang âm trong bối cảnh tâm lý giảm giá.
Bitcoin, ít nhất là cho đến thời điểm hiện tại, dường như phần nào được liên kết với những phát triển tương lai trong không gian Bitcoin ETF giao ngay. SEC vẫn chưa phê duyệt bất kỳ quỹ ETF giao ngay nào mặc dù đã có hàng chục nỗ lực trong nhiều năm.
BlackRock đã buộc phải nộp lại hồ sơ ETF của mình vào tuần trước, đẩy lùi khoảng thời gian 240 ngày mà SEC có thể đưa ra quyết định (mặc dù bộ đếm thời gian đó sẽ không bắt đầu cho đến khi ứng dụng được đặt lên bàn của Cơ quan đăng ký liên bang).
Sự kiện halving của Bitcoin sẽ diễn ra sau khoảng 294 ngày nữa. Giảm một nửa phần thưởng block bitcoin trong lịch sử được coi là chất xúc tác tăng giá.
Lunde cho biết:
“Bitcoin có thể được hưởng lợi từ câu chuyện halving và kỳ vọng ETF được phê duyệt khi chúng ta bước vào năm 2024. Cả hai sẽ dẫn đến sức mạnh đáng kể của BTC, phản ánh tích cực về thị trường vào quý 1 năm 2024.”
