Lưu trữ cho từ khóa: research

The results of this survey on who owns Bitcoin will surprise you

From a demographic standpoint, you’ll be unsurprised to hear that most Bitcoin investors are young and male — but beyond that, there’s plenty of diversity.

A new report has shed light on who tends to own Bitcoin (BTC) in the U.S.

The Nakamoto Project’s inaugural study reveals that investors tend to be of all political persuasions — and not just conservatives or libertarians.

This supports the idea that crypto ownership and regulation is a bipartisan issue, and greater collaboration is needed between both Democrats and Republicans to serve consumers.

American Bitcoiners can be found across the political spectrum — but they tend to be moderates.

The Nakamoto Project

From a demographic standpoint, you’ll be unsurprised to hear that most BTC investors are young and male — but beyond that, researchers concluded that there’s plenty of diversity when it comes to race, ethnicity, income, and education.

Thousands of adults nationwide were surveyed — and census data was used to ensure that the poll was as representative of the U.S. population as possible.

Source: The Nakamoto Project

It was particularly interesting to note that Bitcoin owners were more likely to say that they were on the extremes of the political spectrum — whether that be very liberal or very conservative.

And although the likes of Donald Trump and JD Vance have been banging the drum about the need for pro-Bitcoin policies, the authors stressed that this isn’t a Republican-only matter.

Discourse among politicians, media elites, and users of social media that politicizes Bitcoin ownership is highly misleading. The distribution of Bitcoin-owning Americans across political categories looks very much like the political distribution of all Americans across those categories. Bitcoin ownership is apolitical.

The Nakamoto Project

When it comes to morals, Bitcoiners tend to value cultural liberty and equality more than non-owners who identify as liberal or conservative.

But as you might expect, there was a much bigger divergence when all of the Americans polled were asked to say whether they agreed with a flurry of Bitcoin-related statements.

BTC investors were far more likely to say they trust the underlying technology that powers the Bitcoin blockchain, believe in this digital asset’s potential as an everyday payment method, and argue that this technology is moral — not to mention the people who HODL it.

Learning about Bitcoin inspires trust in the protocol, which leads to belief in its utility and awareness of its potential for social good, which then motivates individuals to purchase or invest in Bitcoin. But it may instead be that individuals first buy Bitcoin as an investment, or to use for payments, after which they are motivated to learn more about it, which drives awareness of its utility, belief that it is good, and trust in the protocol.

The Nakamoto Project

The Bitcoin space has often faced claims that it’s pretty cultish — that it defines someone’s identity and means that they are politically skewed in a certain way.

But drawing conclusions from the survey, The Nakamoto Project concluded that this isn’t quite right: if anything, a Bitcoiner’s politics match their peers.

What correlates most strongly with Bitcoin ownership is not who you are, so to speak, but how much you know about Bitcoin, and whether you think it is useful, trustworthy, and good. The 14% of Americans who own Bitcoin, it turns out, are not members of some particular political tribe. Rather, they are simply Americans who have taken the time to study the technology and formed positive attitudes about it.

The Nakamoto Project

So… what do we draw from this? Perhaps it’s that those who are neutral or even negative about Bitcoin may need to dig deeper to fully understand what this cryptocurrency is all about — and to gain an insight into its values.

Education from crypto exchanges, investors and influencers — not to mention news sites like this one — are crucial for breaking down complicated concepts and communicating what Bitcoin stands for, beyond its reputation as an asset class that continually surges in value.

That may mean simplifying the language a little, being less combative against those who might have reservations about the world of cryptocurrency, and ensuring that trading platforms and wallets are as simple to use as their Web2 counterparts.

When it comes to these particular areas, crypto is still quite a way off delivering the same convenience as the likes of PayPal or Venmo. But inch by inch, and step by step, things are gradually improving — and there’s a lot to be bullish about.

Tổng hợp và chỉnh sửa: ThS Phạm Mạnh Cường
Theo Crypto News

Ethereum ETFs: Potential inflows and Ethereum price impact analysis

Today, Ethereum ETFs made their long-awaited debut on major stock exchanges. This article will analyze projected inflows for Ethereum ETFs and how they might influence the future price of ETH. By comparing the recent success of Bitcoin ETFs, we will explore the potential impact on Ethereum prices in the coming months.

Understanding Bitcoin ETF inflows and their implications for Ethereum

While Bitcoin ETFs have seen substantial inflows, expectations for Ethereum ETFs are more modest. Since their inception, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant investor interest. As of July 18, these financial instruments saw a net inflow of $16.67 billion over approximately six months. Despite being the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum is often perceived differently from Bitcoin. It is not typically seen as a store of value or “digital gold.” This distinction, combined with Bitcoin’s more established market position, suggests that Ethereum may not attract the same level of ETF inflows as Bitcoin.

Source: Farside Investors

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, has provided conservative estimates for Ethereum ETF inflows and believes that these funds will attract only 10-15% of the inflows seen by Bitcoin ETFs.

Additionally, when looking at the derivatives market, the open interest for Ethereum futures and options on the CME is approximately $1.67 billion, while Bitcoin’s open interest stands at $12.56 billion. The CME, which mainly serves institutional investors, shows that Ethereum’s share is about 13.3% of Bitcoin’s. In the broader derivatives market, Ethereum’s total open interest is $20.74 billion compared to Bitcoin’s $54.1 billion, which translates to a 38.34% ratio. These figures reinforce the conservative projections for Ethereum ETF inflows compared to Bitcoin.

Academic insights into ETF effects on market prices

A question often arises: why would ETF inflows impact the price of an underlying asset, such as Ethereum? Several academic studies have confirmed ETFs’ significant influence on underlying asset prices. Research by Ben-David et al. (2018) demonstrates that ETFs can lead to increased volatility and price deviations from fundamental values in the securities they track. The study attributes these effects to the mechanical rebalancing and trading strategies employed by ETFs, which can amplify price movements and introduce non-fundamental shocks into the market.

Further supporting evidence comes from Luca J. Liebi’s literature review. The research highlights ETFs’ role in improving market liquidity and price efficiency under normal conditions. Empirical evidence suggests that ETFs, particularly those with high leverage, can magnify price changes in underlying assets due to their rebalancing activities. These studies collectively indicate that ETF inflows tend to push up the prices of the assets they track, lending credence to the hypothesis that Ethereum ETFs could similarly impact ETH prices.

Potential inflow scenarios for Ethereum ETFs

Based on the analysis above, four potential scenarios for Ethereum ETF inflows emerge:

Percentage of Bitcoin ETF Inflows Ethereum ETF Inflows
10% $1.67B
15% $2.50B
20% $3.33B
25% $4.17B

These projections estimate the potential inflows Ethereum ETFs might experience by the end of 2024, using the $16.668 billion figure for Bitcoin as a baseline.

Ethereum price impact analysis

To estimate the price impact of these potential inflows, four multipliers are considered: 0.5x, 1x, 1.5x, and 2x. These multipliers reflect varying degrees of price sensitivity to ETF inflows.

10% 15% 20% 25%
0.5x $3,570 $3,655 $3,740 $3,825
1x $3,740 $3,910 $4,080 $4,250
1.5x $3,910 $4,165 $4,420 $4,675
2x $4,080 $4,420 $4,760 $5,100

Assuming a current Ethereum price of $3,400, the estimated price impact by the end of 2024, solely from ETF inflows, would range from $170 to $1,700. With more likely multipliers (1x to 1.5x), the price increase would be between $340 and $1,275. This suggests a potential Ethereum price range of $3,740 to $4,675.

Tổng hợp và chỉnh sửa: ThS Phạm Mạnh Cường
Theo Crypto News