Bitcoin price held steady above the crucial psychological level of $60,000 as crypto analysts predicted further upside in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $60,200, its highest level since Aug. 27 as investors moved back to risk assets ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.

Analysts are upbeat

Gold has jumped to a record high while American indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices had their best week in months, 

Notably, Bitcoin seems to have avoided forming a death cross pattern, which happens when the 200-day and 50-day moving averages cross each other. Instead, it has moved slightly above the two averages, which is a positive sign. 

Meanwhile, some of the most notable crypto analysts are bullish on the coin. In an X post, pseudonymous crypto analyst Titan noted that the coin may have a breakout to $92,000.

His theory is that Bitcoin tends to move by at least 40% whenever it flips the 50-day simple moving average. He expects that the coin will jump by 71% in the coming months. 

In a separate post, he noted that Bitcoin had reclaimed the Tenkan Kijun and moved above the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Also, the Relative Strength Index broke above the multi-month trendline, pointing to more upside. 

In another X post, Michael van de Poppe, a popular analyst with over 724,000 followers, noted that Bitcoin may remain in a consolidation phase and then have a bullish breakout at the end of the month or early October.

Santiment, the popular crypto analytics firm, also identified potential bullish catalysts for Bitcoin.

In a post, it noted that Bitcoin was seeing more accumulation by whales and sharks at a time when supply on exchanges was falling. 

Bitcoin volume in exchanges is falling

Data by CoinGlass shows that the volume of coins in exchanges dropped to 2.34 million, down from the year-to-date high of over 2.72 million.

That is a sign that many Bitcoin holders have no intention to sell their coins any time soon. Instead, some big holders like MicroStrategy have continued to accumulate. 

There is also a seasonality case for Bitcoin. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin tends to have negative returns in the third quarter and then rebound in the fourth quarter. 

It has dropped in seven third quarters since 2013 and risen in five quarters.

The average third-quarter return is 5.59% while the average Q4 returns are 88%. September is usually the worst month for Bitcoin while October and November are the best.

Another catalyst, as we wrote on Sept. 14, is that stablecoin holdings by smart money investors have continued moving downwards this year.

After peaking at 35.17% after the FTX collapse in November 2022, it has dropped to just 3.92%. That is a sign that most smart money investors are fully invested in coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).

Cryptocurrencies are largely in the green Saturday as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week and Bitcoin retests the crucial resistance point at $60,000.

Bitcoin price rose to $60k

• Celestia (TIA) rose by 12% to $4.50, reaching a high of $4.59 — its highest swing since Aug. 31
• Popcat (POPCAT) jumped to $0.80, 71% above its lowest level this month.
• Pepe (PEPE), the popular meme coin, rose by 6% while JasmyCoin (JASMY)
• MOTHER Iggy (MOTHER) rose by over 5%.

Altogether, the market cap of all coins tracked by CoinGecko jumped to over $2.20 trillion.

This recovery coincided with the performance across other assets. Gold jumped to a record high of $2,580 while American equities continued their rebound. The Dow Jones rose by 0.80% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by 0.55% and 0.60%, respectively. 

The performance happened after the US published encouraging inflation data on Wednesday, raising the chances that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates on Sep. 18. The data showed that the headline consumer inflation dropped to 2.5%, its lowest level in over two years. 

Risky assets like crypto are expected to do well should the Fed cut rates, as they did in 2020 and 2021; they crashed when interest rates spiked in 2022. 

MicroStrategy continued accumulating BTC

Bitcoin also rose after Michael Saylor revealed that MicroStrategy had acquired an additional 18,300 coins worth $1.1 billion.

It is the biggest corporate holders of Bitcoins with 244,800 in its portfolio.

It also jumped as signs showed that whales and sharks were accumulating the coin. As we wrote, the volume of Bitcoin in exchanges continued falling, hitting the lowest level in years. 

Meanwhile, data from Nansen shows that stablecoin holdings by smart money continued falling.

The chart below shows that these holdings peaked in May 2022 as Terra and its ecosystem crashed, leading to a risk-off sentiment. It then peaked in November 2022 as FTX collapsed. 

Still, Bitcoin and altcoins like Celestia, Jasmy, and Pepe face a risk of Bitcoin forming a death cross since the spread between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages has narrowed.

A death cross could lead to more downside. For example, Ethereum has dropped by 15% after forming the pattern in August. 

Bitcoin price continued to consolidate this week as traders awaited the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $57,000, significantly higher than last Friday’s low of $52,000. Its price action has correlated well with American stocks, as the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones rose on Monday and wavered on Tuesday, Sept. 10.

Bitwise explains why Bitcoin will rally

In a note, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, a leading crypto investment company with over $4 billion in assets, said that Bitcoin may see a “significant rally” in the next few months.

He cited three key reasons for this. First, he explained that Bitcoin and other risky assets, like technology stocks, tend to perform poorly in September, followed by a rebound.

According to his study, which analyzed data from 2010 to 2024, September was the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average return of minus 4.5%. He also noted that it was the worst month for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which typically sees a 6% drop.

For this year, Matt Hougan identified three catalysts that could push Bitcoin higher in the coming months. First, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September and deliver two more cuts by the end of the year. He predicts the bank will implement 125 bps worth of cuts by December, which could push risky assets higher.

Second, Hougan expects Bitcoin to rebound as the market gains more clarity on the outcome of the general election. Polymarket suggests that Donald Trump has a higher chance of defeating Kamala Harris, although other mainstream polls show the two candidates are quite close and within the margin of error.

Third, he highlighted ETF inflows as being strong despite previous outflows. Most notably, he believes that investment advisors are adopting Bitcoin funds faster than “any new ETF in history.” In fact, some of the biggest hedge funds, such as Citadel, Millennium, and Bridgewater Associates, have invested in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price faces risks

Still, the bullish case for Bitcoin comes with some risks. The most notable one is that Bitcoin is about to form a death cross, as the gap between the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages continues to narrow.

It has moved from 4% last week to less than 1%. In most periods, Bitcoin tends to drop sharply after this crossover happens.

Another risk is that Bitcoin currently lacks a clear catalyst or narrative going forward. The last bull run was primarily driven by anticipation of halving and ETF approvals.