Pepe token price has risen for two consecutive days in a high-volume environment as traders bought the dip.
Pepe price is recovering
Pepe (PEPE), the third-biggest meme coin, was trading at $0.0000081 on Wednesday, up by over 38% from its lowest swing on Monday when stocks and most cryptocurrencies tumbled by double digits.
Its price action has mirrored that of other tokens like Stacks (STX), Bonk, and Solana (SOL), which have all formed a hammer pattern, one of the most popular reversal signs in the market.
Pepe had the highest volume among all meme coins, rising to over $1.43 billion, higher than Dogecoin’s (DOGE) $1.03 billion and Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) $356 million.
However, Pepe’s recovery faces a few key risks. First, it is happening in a low futures open interest environment. Its interest stood at just $71 million, down from July’s high of over $141 million.
Second, the token has formed a few bearish chart patterns that could hinder its recovery. The most important one is the head and shoulders pattern. It recently dropped from the right shoulder level at $0.000013 and crossed the slanted neckline at $0.0000066.
Therefore, if the current recovery turns out to be brief or a dead cat bounce, there is a risk that Pepe could drop to as low as $0.0000020, which is about 75% below its Wednesday levels. This level was selected by measuring the distance between the head and the neckline.
Pepe token invalidated 5th Elliot Wave phase
Meanwhile, Pepe has likely invalidated the impulse Elliot Wave pattern by failing to complete the bullish fifth section.
The other potential risk is the one previously noted on Bitcoin, which could form a death cross pattern, a big bearish sign.
Finally, Pepe remains below the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, which have recently formed a bearish crossover pattern. Therefore, the token will likely resume the downward trend and possibly retest this week’s low of $0.0000058. A break below that level will point to more downside.
Solana has been moving strong after the market-wide bearish momentum on Aug. 5. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency entered the $150 zone again.
Solana (SOL) is up 12% in the past 24 hours and is trading at $154 at the time of writing. The asset’s market cap is sitting at $71.8 billion with a daily trading volume of $5.5 billion.
SOL price, open interest, funding rate and social volume – Aug. 7 | Source: Santiment
So far, SOL has registered a 40% price rally from its local bottom of $110 on Aug. 5 and strengthened its position after retesting the $140 mark.
The asset’s price surge comes as discussions about Solana heat up. According to data provided by Santiment, the social volume around SOL increased by 30% over the past two days, making it the top trending token on social media platforms.
Data shows that the majority of the social volume comes from X and Telegram.
Per data from the market intelligence platform, the total open interest in Solana increased by 18% over the past 24 hours — rising from $1.44 billion to $1.69 billion. This shows increased trader interest in Solana as the price rebounds.
Data shows that the total funding rate aggregated by SOL plunged into the negative zone again — dropping from 0.0007% to negative 0.002% over the past 24 hours. This shows that the number of trades betting on Solana’s price fall is slightly dominating long positions.
Historically, Solana witnessed a quick rebound after its funding rates dropped below zero.
According to crypto.news data, the Solana Relative Strength Index is currently hovering at the 65 mark. The indicator shows that SOL is slightly overbought at this price point.
Solana is currently vulnerable to high price volatility due to its increased open interest, which could ultimately trigger liquidations, and heightened RSI.
It’s important to note that macroeconomic and political events could have a sudden impact on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, despite bullish technical indicators.
Solana-based meme coin Popcat champions the ongoing market recovery effort emerging as the largest gainer among the top 100 cryptocurrencies.
The latest rebound follows a dramatic drop to a two-month low of $0.2580 on Aug. 5, where the token lost 20% in a day as the broader market collapsed. However, Popcat (POPCAT) has rebounded by 128% from its recent low and is trading at $0.5961 at the time of writing.
Notably, Popcat’s current price position is above the lower Bollinger Band,$0.3648, but significantly below the upper band, $1.0792, and the middle band, $0.7220. This setup is rather unprecedented, considering the sharp price increase.
However, with the price significantly underneath the upper Bollinger Band, this indicates that while there has been a significant recovery, POPCAT has not yet reached an overbought condition. The gap between the current price and the upper band suggests there could be room for further growth before resistance.
Meanwhile, on the Directional Movement Index, the +DI line, which measures the strength of the upward movement, stands at 17.1423, while the -DI line, indicating the strength of the downward movement, is at 26.4183.
The Average Directional Index, which shows the strength of the overall trend, is at 25.84. With the ADX above 25, the current trend is considered moderately strong, although the higher value of the -DI compared to the +DI suggests that bearish pressure could be mounting.
Popcat RSI suggests cautious outlook
The Relative Strength Index further supports a cautious outlook. With an RSI value of 48.07, POPCAT is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading means there’s no immediate risk of a sharp reversal due to overvaluation.
POPCAT price and RSI – Aug. 7 | Source: crypto.news
However, the current RSI reading also does not signal a strong continuation of the uptrend. The current position indicates the potential for the price to move in either direction without being overstretched.
The recent surge in POPCAT’s price has been accompanied by increased trading volume, suggesting strong buying interest. However, if the volume starts to decline while the price remains high, it could indicate weakening momentum, potentially leading to a pullback.
It is important to watch for changes in trading volume and the DMI lines closely. A significant drop in volume or a crossover where the -DI surpasses the +DI could signal an impending correction.
Conversely, sustained high volume and a strengthening +DI could support further gains. While the current rally has been remarkable, mixed signals from technical indicators suggest vigilance for signs of a potential reversal, indicating that the rally might not be fully exhausted yet, but caution is advised.
Bitcoin price rose on Tuesday, Aug. 6 as some investors bought the dip and a sense of calm spread in the crypto and stock market.
Bitcoin price nears a death cross
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to an intraday high of $56,000 on Aug. 6, where it found substantial resistance. This price action occurred as some investors, including those in the Exchange Traded Fund sector, bought the dip.
However, it is too early to predict whether these gains will hold in the longer term. On the daily chart, the 200-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages are about to form a death cross pattern, which is mostly followed by further downside.
Bitcoin also remains below the Ichimoku cloud, while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is below the neutral point. The PPO measures the difference between two moving averages and closely resembles the MACD, but it calculates the difference in percentage terms.
These technical indicators point to more downside in the near term. A complete bearish breakout will be confirmed if the price drops below Monday’s low of $49,000, which is the lower side of the hammer candlestick.
Meanwhile, the role of Bitcoin is being questioned by key opinion leaders. In a CNBC interview, Nassim Taleb, the author of “The Black Swan,” warned that Bitcoin was not a hedge against anything.
He noted that the coin was a “speculative thing that behaves like high-value real estate in Manhattan.”
Taleb has been a well-known Bitcoin critic for years. In 2022, he attributed the coin’s popularity to the Federal Reserve’s decade-long near-zero interest rates, which he claimed created bubbles and tumors like Bitcoin.
Taleb is not the only prominent person to warn about Bitcoin. Peter Schiff continues to assert that Bitcoin is worthless and that it made no sense to make it a reserve asset by the government.
The bill proposed by @SenLummis, which requires the U.S. government to create a “Bitcoin Reserve” by purchasing 1 million #Bitcoin to HODL for 20 years, mandates the Federal Reserve to print the money to pay for it. Thus, the Senator’s plan is to create #inflation to buy Bitcoin.
On Aug. 6, Kathleen Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos (XTZ), chimed in and warned that Bitcoin’s role as a store of value was being decimated.
Time will tell whether Peter Schiff’s and Nassim Taleb’s Bitcoin price predictions will work out. However, the two—and other critics—have missed a generational asset that moved from near zero in 2009 to $55,000 today. Gold, which Schiff favors, has moved from $1,000 to $2,400 over the same time period, a 115% increase.
Ethereum price bounced back on Tuesday, Aug. 6 after forming a big hammer candlestick pattern and as some investors, including ‘7 Siblings,’ bought the dip.
Ether (ETH) was trading at $2,445, up by over 15% from its lowest point this week. This price action was in sync with that of Bitcoin (BTC), Cardano (ADA), and Bittensor (TAO).
Ethereum whales are buying
There are signs that some big investors bought the dip on Black Monday , hoping that the token will bounce back. One of the buyers was an entity known as ‘7 Siblings,’ which has over $1.57 billion in assets. 7 Siblings bought 56,093 ETH tokens worth over $129 million.
While you guys were panic selling due to the market crash, the entity”7 Siblings” with $1.57B assets quietly bought 56,093 $ETH($129M) at the bottom!
7 Siblings started buying when the price dropped to $2,600 and continued until the price dropped to $2,191, a total of 12 hours… pic.twitter.com/t5fsVu28gH
There are also signs that Exchange Traded Funds investors bought the dip. According to Bloomberg, these investors bought assets worth $49 million, in a sign of increased investor optimism.
Still, the crypto industry is being cautious, with some big holders selling their tokens. Jump Trading, a prominent player in the industry, has sold Ether tokens worth over $609 million in the past few weeks. Another big holder known as Longling Capital moved 20,000 coins after being dormant for almost 2 years.
Ethereum’s recovery faces additional risks. For one, not every analyst believes that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in September. In a CNBC interview, Komal Sri-Kumar, founder of Sri Kumar Global Strategies, said that the Fed should wait for inflation to fall before cutting interest rates.
Still, he seems to be in the minority as the CME Fedwatch tool has a 76.5% probability of a 50bps rate cut in September followed by another one in November and December.
Another positive for Ethereum is that its staking yield has risen by 6.3% in the past 24 hours to 9.46%. This rebound happened as the staking market cap dropped by 26% to $81.95 billion.
The other potential risk for Ether is technical. On the daily chart, the coin formed a triple-top pattern whose neckline was at $2,810. It has now dropped below this neckline, meaning that bears have prevailed.
Ether is also about to form a death cross as the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Average are about to make a bearish crossover. Also, as was previously noted about Bitcoin, any rebound after a sell-off could prove to be a dead cat bounce.
Bitcoin price dropped to a multi-month-low of $49,105 on Aug. 5 as the crypto sell-off continued.
At its lowest point on Monday Aug. 5, Bitcoin (BTC) was down by over 33% from its highest point this year. While it did bounce back from below $50,000 to test the $55,000 level, it still remains in a deep bear market.
The prediction market is divided on what to expect later this year. According to Kalshi, a fast-growing prediction platform backed by Charles Schwab, Sequoia, and Henry Kravis, 76% of poll participants expect the Bitcoin price to end the year below $50,000.
Fifty-four percent of the participants see the coin falling below $40,000, while 20% of them expect it to drop below $30,000.
Meanwhile, according to Polymarket, fewer traders expect Bitcoin to rise to $100,000 this year. In March, 64% of the poll participants expected the coin to jump to that level. On Monday, the figure had dropped to 22%.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are falling as the industry faces substantial headwinds. The most recent data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $65.4 million in assets.
Bitcoin’s futures open interest slipped to over $6.2 billion from last month’s high of over $8.8 billion. Additional data revealed that Bitcoin suffered $444 million in liquidations on Monday, while the entire industry had over $1.14 billion.
On the positive side, big investment firms like Blackrock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy are not selling their coins. MicroStrategy is even raising fundsto buy more coins.
Also, as we saw in March 2020, the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates even before the September meeting. Inflation has continued falling while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%.
On the daily chart, we see that Bitcoin peaked at $73,955 and then moved downwards to $49,104 on Aug. 5. Its lowest point was an important level since it coincided with the highest point on January 11. Bitcoin also dropped below the 200-day moving average, meaning that bears are in control.
Most importantly, Bitcoin has been forming a series of lower highs ($73,900, $72,000, and $70,000). It also formed lower lows at $60,730, $56,900, and $50,775. In most cases, this price action leads to more downwards movement.
On the positive side, Bitcoin has formed a falling broadening wedge pattern, a popular bullish sign. In this case, more upside will be confirmed if it rises above the 200-day moving average and rises above the upper side of the descending trendline.
Conversely, a drop below Monday’s low will invalidate the wedge pattern and point to more downside as sellers target the 50% retracement level at $44,840.
Coinbase stock price has been in a freefall, dropping for eight consecutive days, but one analyst believes that it could rebound to $295, ~40% above its Friday’s open.
Coinbase’s retreat happened as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and other altcoins suffered a harsh reversal, leading to lower volumes across centralized and decentralized exchanges.
Coinbase earnings
In addition to the trends in the crypto market, the Coinbase stock price reacted to the company’s earnings, which showed the benefit of its diversification.
Coinbase made $1.3 billion in net revenue in the second quarter, a big increase from the $663 million it made in the same period in 2023. The figure was lower than the $1.58 billion it made in Q1.
Coinbase’s net income of $36 million was also higher than the $97 million loss it made in the same period a year earlier. All its numbers were better than its guidance and analyst estimates.
Most importantly, Coinbase’s efforts to diversify its business are working. Its transaction revenue came in at $780 million, while the subscription and services revenue jumped to $599 million.
A big increase in its latter segment was its custodial fee part, whose revenue rose to $34.5 million. This is an exciting business for Coinbase because it has become the biggest custodian for most Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Its figures will see less volatility in the future since investors hold their ETFs for a long period.
The other part of Coinbase’s subscription and services revenue includes its stablecoin, blockchain reward, interest and fee, and other subscriptions.
Analyst is bullish on Coinbase stock
Most Wall Street analysts are bullish on the COIN stock. According to Yahoo Finance, the average analyst price target is $265, 25% higher than its Friday’ open.
Citigroup changed its tune on Coinbase, moving from neutral to buy in July. Other analysts from Needham, Goldman Sachs, and JMP Securities are bullish on the stock.
The latest analyst to comment on the stock was from HC Wainwright, who lowered their price target from $315 to $295, implying a still strong 40% gain from its current price.
The analyst cited two key catalysts to drive shares higher. First, the crypto industry could get the regulatory clarity it has always wanted this year. Brian Armstrong, the company’s CEO has seen some bipartisan moves about crypto in Congress in the past few months.
Second, HC Wainwright noted that Coinbase has now become a more diversified company, meaning that it is no longer dependent on transaction revenue.
“While it is plausible that we could see crypto asset prices and trading volumes trend sideways in the coming months due to macro related headwinds/uncertainty, we remain bullish on these critically important drivers for Coinbase as we look out over the next 12-18 months, as we enter the next leg of this bull market cycle for crypto,” the analysts wrote.
HC Wainright faces some technical risks. On the daily chart above, the stock has retreated below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), meaning that bears are taking over. It has also formed a slanted double-top pattern whose neckline is at $195.02. A drop below that level will point to more downside.
Aave (AAVE) has surged by 64.7% in less than a month. With such a strong rally, the question now is whether AAVE can continue its upward momentum or if it faces a potential pullback. In this week’s analysis, we examine the key technical indicators, resistance levels, and strategic considerations to determine the most likely direction for AAVE in the coming days.
Table of Contents
Resistance and support analysis
Aave (AAVE) faces a critical juncture as it approaches a very strong resistance level at $115. This level has a significant history, having acted as resistance 20 times and support 24 times in the past. The price currently hovers around this key level, and the market is closely watching to see if Aave (AAVE) will once again encounter resistance for the 21st and 22nd times or finally break through. However, signs suggest that it may be difficult to overcome this barrier.
When examining historical support levels, two key areas stand out: the $80 mark and the $50 mark. While the $50 level served as support during the bear market, it seems unlikely that Aave (AAVE) will revisit this area in the current market conditions. On the other hand, the $80 level is a more recent occurrence and represents a support level worth keeping in mind as Aave’s (AAVE) price action unfolds.
Fibonacci retracements analysis
Looking at the macro Fibonacci retracement from the low in August 2019 to the high in May 2021, we observe a significant 78.6% retracement level at $143.09. The last time Aave (AAVE) approached this level was in March 2024, when it ultimately failed to break through. Should Aave (AAVE) succeed in surpassing its historical resistance at $115, the next logical profit target would likely be set at this $143.09 level.
On a more positive note, when examining the Fibonacci retracement from the March 2024 high to the April 2024 low, Aave (AAVE) successfully breached the 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels. It is now approaching the golden pocket, which lies between $121.50 and $124.11. If Aave (AAVE) manages to break above the $115 resistance, this golden pocket represents the next key area to watch. It is a strong, bullish zone with minimal resistance, making it a likely target for further upward movement.
Lastly, when applying Fibonacci from the early July low to the present, we identify two potential levels where Aave (AAVE) might retrace if it fails to break through the $115 resistance. The first is the 23.6% level at $106.50, and the second is the 38.2% level at $99.77, which aligns closely with the psychological $100 mark.
Technical indicators
Bollinger Bands
Aave’s (AAVE) recent price action has moved it above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating an overextension in the current uptrend. While trading above the middle band typically signifies a strong upward trend, the price being above the upper band often suggests that the asset is overbought. This positioning implies that the upper band is likely acting as a resistance level, making sustained movement at this level improbable. Given this, it is likely that Aave (AAVE) may experience a correction soon as the price reverts to a more sustainable level within the bands.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to grow and remains in the green, which signals increasing bullish momentum. The recent bullish crossover, where the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, also strengthens the case for continued upward movement in the near term.
RSI
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought territory, hovering near the 70 level. Historically, when Aave’s (AAVE) RSI has reached around 70, the bullish momentum has often stalled and led to a pullback.
Strategic considerations
First, it’s important to consider the seasonal patterns within the cryptocurrency market. Historically, August and September have been challenging months for crypto assets. According to data from CoinGlass, the median Bitcoin monthly returns during these months are among the worst in the calendar year. Therefore, expecting significant upward momentum in Aave (AAVE) during this period may be overly optimistic.
Secondly, when evaluating Aave’s (AAVE) current situation using the technical indicators discussed, it becomes apparent that the bullish momentum is not as strong as it might initially appear. The recent breakthroughs in Fibonacci retracement levels and the bullish signals from the MACD are the only indicators suggesting potential upward movement. However, everything else points towards a likely correction.
Moreover, while Aave (AAVE) has benefited from positive news and increased whale activity, these factors seem to be losing steam.
The net flow of Aave (AAVE) into exchanges has risen, which indicates potential selling pressure. For instance, on August 1, the net flow into exchanges exceeded $8 million.
Considering these factors, several price targets emerge if Aave (AAVE) fails to break above $115:
First target: $106.50
Second target: $100
Third target: $95
Fourth target (worst-case scenario): The golden pocket is between $87.41 and $88.89, which closely aligns with the $90 level.
If Aave (AAVE) does manage to break above $115, the outlook will shift toward a bullish scenario. In such a case, traders should watch for a subsequent retest of the $115 level as new support. Successfully holding this level would confirm the breakout and reinforce the momentum. Profit targets should then be adjusted upwards, focusing on the golden pocket between $121.50 and $124.11, followed by $135.20, and ultimately $143.09.
Bitcoin price has dropped by over 7% from its highest level this week and could fall below $60,000 this month, according to Polymarket.
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to a low of $63,504 on Thursday even after the Federal Reserve hinted a potential rate cut in September is on the table. What should be seen as a bullish indicator isn’t the sentiment shared among the Polymarket community.
In a Polymarket poll with $57,000 in funding, most participants believe the coin will drop below $60,000 before September. About 24% expect it to fall below $55,000, while 15% see it moving below $50,000.
It’s unclear why Bitcoin sold off on Thursday. One possible reason is the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could cause inflation and push the Fed to delay its rate cuts. Oil prices have risen, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate hitting $82 and $79, respectively.
Another key macro catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets will be Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the Fed would watch these jobs to determine whether a rate cut is necessary in September.
The other potential reason to explain Bitcoin’s weakness has to do with the U.S. election and the possibility that Donald Trump won’t emerge victorious. According to Polymarket, while Trump still maintains a 55% lead, current Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris has notably narrowed the gap.
Another poll by PredictIt has Harris leading with 53% followed by Trump’s 49%. More polls have shown that Harris has wiped out Trump’s lead across key battleground states in the past few days.
Trump is seen as the more crypto-friendly presidential candidate. In his speech at a crypto conference, he vowed to support the industry and to ensure that the government will not sell its Bitcoin holdings. Data shows that the government holds 213,246 coins, mostly from Silk Road.
For Polymarket’s Bitcoin forecast to play out, sellers will need to push the price below the key support at $63,460, its lowest swing on Thursday. This level is significant as BTC failed to drop below it on July 18, 19, and 25.
It is also the neckline of the triple-top pattern formed in July and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Breaking this support would signal that bears have prevailed and increase the likelihood of BTC dropping to $60,000.
