Lưu trữ cho từ khóa: Price Analysis

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Solana forms bullish patterns as DEX volume, open interest slip

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Solana price has been stuck in a deep bear market as the volume in its decentralized exchanges and futures open interest dipped.

Solana (SOL) has risen for two consecutive weeks and was up by over 33% from its lowest point in August. Still, it remains in a bear market after falling by over 30% from the year-to-date high. 

Solana’s DEX volume retreats

Its price action has mirrored that of other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are all in a bear market. 

Solana’s sell-off has happened as the volume in its DEX platforms has fallen in the past few weeks. Data by DeFi Llama shows that its DEX volume dropped by over 45% in the past seven days. In this period, it has handled transactions worth $7.12 billion while Ethereum has processed $8.9 billion.

Solana’s DEX volume has retreated because of the ongoing meme coin sell-off. Top Solana memes like Dogwifhat, Bonk, Popcat, and Book of Meme have all tumbled by over 50% in the past few months.

Solana has become the most popular chain for creating meme coins, due to fast speeds and low transaction costs. The launch of Pump.fun, a meme coin generator, has made it easier for people to launch Solana meme tokens. 

Data shows that these tokens have a combined market cap of over $425 million, with Michi, Daddy Tate, Mother Iggy, and Billy being the largest. 

Meanwhile, Solana’s open interest in the futures market has stalled.

According to CoinGlass, futures open interest on Aug. 18 stood at almost $2 billion, the same level it has been in the past five days. The interest is much lower than the July 30 peak of $3.08 billion. 

Solana futures open interest | Source: CoinGlass

The waning open interest is likely because of the significant liquidations that happened earlier this month as cryptocurrencies slumped.

Solana’s bulls suffered liquidations worth over $39 million while shorts liquidations totalled $21 million on Aug. 8. 

Solana has bullish technicals

Solana price chart| Source: TradingView

On the positive side, Solana has found strong support at the 50-weekly moving average, where it failed to move below earlier this month. 

The coin has also formed a doji pattern, which is characterized by a small body and long upper and lower shadows. It is one of the most popular reversal signs in the market. 

Additionally, Solana has formed a cup and handle pattern, a sign of a bullish continuation. Therefore, the coin may continue a bullish trend in the coming weeks as buyers target the key resistance of $180.

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Bitcoin triggers bullish sentiment among investors, long-term holders

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Bitcoin briefly touched a local high of $60,100 earlier today and is currently hovering at around $58,894 at last check Sunday.

The leading cryptocurrency is up for three straight days, but still in a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin (BTC) daily trading volume decreased by 42% and is currently hovering around $14.7 billion.

BTC price, whale activity and dormant circulation – Aug. 18 | Source: Santiment

When an asset’s trading volume declines, it’s usually a sign of a cool-down and lower price volatility.

According to data provided by Santiment, Bitcoin’s five-year dormant circulation is currently sitting at 104 BTC, one of the lowest levels seen this year.

Notably, this metric rose to 16,592 BTC on July 23 when the Bitcoin price was hovering around the $66,000 mark.

Moreover, the asset’s one-year dormant circulation plunged from 6,040 BTC on Aug. 15 to 1,412 BTC at the reporting time. 

The declining dormant circulation often hints at long-term holders’ profit-taking and is usually increased during high price points. At this point, long-term Bitcoin addresses have either taken profits or gone back to sleep.

Per data from Santiment, the number of whale transactions consisting of at least $100,000 worth of BTC has been consistently decreasing over the past three days — dropping from 9,295 on Aug. 15 to 5,309 unique transactions at the reporting time.

Declining whale activity often decreases an asset’s price volatility as token holders expect a lower chance of whale price manipulations.

According to a crypto.news report on Aug. 17, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. closed the week with over $36 million in net inflows. This was one of the main reasons behind the bullish sentiment around BTC that helped it recover the $59,000 mark.

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Bitcoin hits bottom, expect a spike to $68k level: analyst

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Bitcoin has probably bottomed out and is now primed for an uptick, according to anonymous crypto trader self-proclaimed “bubblechaser” Bluntz.

In an Aug. 15 post on X, the trader — famous for correctly predicting the 2018 Bitcoin (BTC) bottom — proclaimed that the cryptocurrency had completed an ABC correction, with its price probably due to end up around the $68,000 level.

An ABC correction is a fundamental concept in Elliott Wave theory, which is used to analyze market cycles and predict future price movements. The correction consists of three waves; wave A, which initiates the correction and moves and moves against the prevailing trend. 

The second part of the correction, wave B, usually retraces a part of the first wave, while moving in the direction of the original trend. Wave C continues the correction and often extends beyond wave A.

The correction could help market watchers identify potential reversal points and continuation points.

Interestingly, another crypto trader, Michaël van de Poppe, suggested that Bitcoin could plummet to as low as $48,000 if it’s current support level at $56,000 crumbled.

Van de Poppe also highlighted the current crypto market cap of over $2 trillion, an increase of just 0.8% from the previous 24 hours, suggesting the market could still be correcting.

The analyst said there was a possibility the market could drop some more in the next one or two weeks, before shooting back up.

Other analysts share similar sentiments. Captain Faibik, another pseudonymous trader, postulated that Bitcoin could move to as high as $100,000 after it exits its current critical phase. The analyst stated that the cryptocurrency had been consolidating inside a descending broadening wedge pattern since early 2024. 

Not to be left behind, Blockstream CEO Adam Beck also shared his thoughts with Coinstelegram’s Anna Tutova, saying Bitcoin was still at a nascent stage of an ongoing bull cycle. 

According to the Bitcoin veteran, the cryptocurrency could potentially skyrocket by more than 700% from its current position, with its main drivers being the length of time investors hold their coins as well as the performance of Bitcoin-based spot exchange-traded funds.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just below the $60,000 level, having made a slight 0.1% improvement across 24 hours. 

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Meme coins crash: Dogwifhat, Brett, Bonk, Pepe lead weekend losses

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Cryptocurrency prices remained under pressure on Monday, continuing a trend that has happened in almost two weeks.

Meme coins sell-off continues

Altogether, all meme coins tracked by CoinGecko have a market cap of over $38 billion, down from their year-to-date high of more than $68 billion. 

A closer look at their charts shows that most of them have a close correlation with each other. All tokens mentioned below have fallen in the past five days and have retreated by over 50% from their highest point this year. 

  • Bitcoin (BTC) was stuck below $60,000 while most meme coins continued their steep downfall.
  • Dogwifhat (WIF) token has dropped for five consecutive days and is down by over 51% from its highest point this year.
  • Similarly, Brett (BRETT), the biggest meme coin in the Base Blockchain, has retreated for five days, is down by 60% from its all-time year. Long-term holders have lost over $1 billion as its market cap has dropped from over $1.89 billion to $794 million. 
  • Bonk (BONK), the first Solana (SOL) meme coin was also one of the worst-performing cryptocurrencies on Aug. 17 as it has retreated by 63% from its March highs.
  • Pepe (PEPE) has also moved to $0.0000071 after falling for several straight days.

Additionally, technicals suggest that these tokens have more room to go down.

Pepe death cross and head and shoulders pattern

Pepe price chart | Source: TradingView

Pepe, which is often the most actively traded of the meme coins, moved below the 50-day moving average on July 31 and the 200-day EMA on Aug. 11. If this downtrend continues, it means that Pepe could form a death cross, which often leads to more upside. 

Additionally, Pepe has formed a head and shoulders pattern, one of the most popular bearish signs in the market.

The most important catalyst for these meme coins is Bitcoin, which has stalled below $60,000 this week. If Bitcoin resumes the downtrend, it means that meme coins will continue falling, with most of them eying their August lows. 

Historically, meme coins tend to show extreme moves in Bitcoin’s direction. For example, Pepe rose by over 1,500% between January and March as Bitcoin rose by over 80% in the same period. It has retreated by over 50% while BTC is down by 20% from the same period.

Traders move to meme tokens like Pepe, Dogwifhat, Bonk, and Brett when Bitcoin is rising because of their cheaper price.

Instead of buying Bitcoin, which goes for almost $60,000, most traders opt for a token like Pepe that sells for $0.0000071. The theory is that these tokens have a bigger chance of doubling than Bitcoin.

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Banana Gun token ignores the crypto sell-off, spikes 110%

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Banana Gun token price continued its strong rebound on Aug. 17 even as other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether retreated. 

The banana token rally accelerates

The Banana (BANANA) token rose for the second consecutive day, reaching a high of $64.47, its highest level since July 26 and 117% above its lowest level in August. The other top-performing tokens were Neiro (NEIRO) and Synapse (SYN), which rose by over 105% and 40%.

Banana Gun’s jump pushed its market cap to over $205 million. It happened in a high-volume environment as the 24-hour volume jumped to over $271 million. 

Additional data shows that Banana’s demand also jumped in the futures market as the open interest rose to a record high of $30.50 million. It had an open interest of $16.50 million on Friday and $11 million on Thursday, according to CoinGlass.

Banana Gun futures open interest | Source: Coinglass

A likely reason for the surge is that Birdeye, an on-chain data aggregator, announced that Banana’s Solana (SOL) bot was available on its ecosystem. The integration means that users can access Banana’s transactions easily and it came a few days after the Solana Reborn launch. 

Additionally, some crypto traders pointed to Banana’s fundamentals for the rally. Data by Dune Analytics shows that the Telegram bot has had over 237,000 lifetime users, 4,745 daily active users, and has handled over $5.8 billion worth of transactions in its lifetime. 

Additionally, the developers have continued to reduce the number of Banana tokens in circulation. Most recently, they burned 2% of the total supply, a move that is aimed at creating value for the tokens in circulation.

Technicals point to more Banana Gun upside

Banana Gun token price | Chart by TradingView

Meanwhile, technicals show that the Banana token may have more upside before retreating. It has already crossed the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, meaning that bulls are in control for now.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index and the Money Flow Index have crossed the neutral point at 50, meaning that it is not yet overbought. The Murrey Math Lines show that it has more room to run before getting to its ultimate resistance level.

Therefore, the Banana Gun token may continue rising as buyers target the resistance at $75. As with other similar parabolic moves, the token will then retreat as investors start to take profits.

Banana Gun launched in early 2023 at around $10.

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Sea of red in crypto: Celestia, WIF, Ethena, and Sui lead losses

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It was a sea of red in the cryptocurrency market on Aug. 16 as Bitcoin dropped below the key support level of $58,000.

Most altcoins were deep in the red, remaining in a bear market. Celestia (TIA) was one of the worst performers, now down for three consecutive days. It fell to $5.10, down by over 75% from its highest point this year.

TIA, WIF, ENA, and SUI are leading losses

Dogwifhat (WIF), the popular meme coin, dropped for four straight days and is down by over 71% from its all-time high. Similarly, cryptocurrencies like Pepe (PEPE), Ethena (ENA), and Sui (SUI) dropped by more than 10% in 24 hours. 

Bitcoin (BTC) and many altcoins have retreated even as broad market conditions have improved. The US dollar index has dropped to $102, while US equities are on track for their best week in months.

There are several possible reasons for this price action. First, many traders are likely keeping away from crypto after the substantial liquidations that occurred on Aug. 5, when digital currencies and stocks plunged.

Data by CoinGlass shows that total bullish liquidations stood at over $700 million on that day. A likely indication of this is that Bitcoin’s open interest in the futures market has stalled at $69 billion this week. Additionally, the volume of cryptocurrencies traded on major DEX and CEX exchanges has dropped by double digits in the past few days.

Second, there is no clear catalyst traders can get behind and bears can’t ignore. Earlier this year, the narratives focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and the Bitcoin halving event, which have all taken place.

Third, there are technical concerns in the market now that BTC and Ether have formed a death cross pattern.

Analysts are bullish on crypto

Still, some analysts believe that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will bounce back later this year. In a note, Michael van de Poppe, a popular crypto analyst, predicted that the rebound will start to happen in September.

In a separate but similar tone, Miles Deutscher, another analyst, noted that investors were slowly accumulating, a move that could lead to a strong comeback later this year.

Some companies have already started buying Bitcoin. Marathon Digital has pushed its total holdings to over 25,000 while firms like Goldman Sachs and Nomura have acquired spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve is set to join other central banks like the European Central Bank and Bank of England in cutting interest rates. US politicians have also become more bullish on Bitcoin, with Chuck Schumer working on a crypto regulation bill. All these factors could lead to a BTC and altcoin comeback.

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Bitcoin in a gray zone as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs diverge

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Bitcoin’s price was stuck in a tight range on Friday as traders and investors’ sentiment waned and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley diverged.

Bitcoin (BTC) was consolidating below $59,000, dropping by almost 7% from its highest point last week. In contrast, global stocks are on track to have the best week in nine months as recession jitters fall. 

Goldman Sachs invests in BTC

A key event in the Bitcoin market happened in this week’s filings by major American banks. Goldman Sachs, one of the most prestigious names on Wall Street, revealed that it had acquired Bitcoin ETF shares worth over $418 million. 

Other prominent companies have invested in these funds, with Millenium Management being one of the largest institutional buyers. Millennium, led by Israel Englander, is one of the most successful hedge funds globally, with over $68.2 billion. Englander is also one of the richest Americans, with a net worth of over $12 billion.

Other top institutions that have invested in Bitcoin ETFs are Barclays, Nomura, HSBC, Bank of America, Jane Street, and Susquehanna. 

However, other institutions have taken a diverging view on Bitcoin. The most prominent is Vanguard, the asset management company with over $7.1 trillion in managed assets. Vanguard has avoided launching spot Bitcoin ETFs while its rivals like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Invesco have, and has ruled out offering Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to its clients.  

Meanwhile, there are signs that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are diverging on Bitcoin ETFs. While Goldman increased its holdings during the quarter, Morgan Stanley reduced its holdings. 

Morgan Stanley still holds Bitcoin ETF shares and has asked its financial advisors to pitch these products to customers. The decline in holdings during the second quarter is likely due to the retreat in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin price is sending mixed signals

Fundamental and technical analysts have mixed opinions on what to expect in the coming months. Some, like Wolfe Research, believe that Bitcoin’s path of the least resistance is downwards. 

Others, like Cryptonary, believe that Bitcoin has multiple catalysts ahead, including the end of the summer season, the conclusion of the U.S. election, and the start of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. 

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Technically, Bitcoin is in a gray area as it remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. It has even formed a death cross as the simple moving average has made a bearish crossover. 

On the positive side, the coin has formed a falling broadening wedge pattern, a popular bullish sign. This pattern will only work out if the coin rises above the year-to-date high of $73,732.

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Flare sees gains as transactions rise, falling wedge pattern forms

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Flare token price rose for two consecutive days and was the best-performing cryptocurrency on Aug. 15.

Flare (FLR) rose by over 7% on Thursday, Aug. 15, reaching a high of $0.016, up by over 21% from its lowest level this month. However, like other altcoins, it remains in a bear market after falling by over 70% from its highest point this year. It is also hovering near its lowest level since December last year.

Flare’s rebound occureding durin an otherwise boring day for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) remained below $60,000, even as U.S. stocks rallied after encouraging retail sales and manufacturing production data.

A likely reason for the FLR token’s rise is the increase in network transactions this month.

Data from Flarescan shows that Flare had over 952,000 transactions on Aug. 14, higher than the 922,000 it had on Aug. 1. Over time, Flare has handled over 343 million transactions. 

Additional data shows that the Flare Network is performing modestly well. According to DeFi Llama, the total value locked in the network has jumped to a record high of over $13.6 million, a significant increase from $5.4 million at the start of the year.

The biggest players in the Flare ecosystem are Clearpool, Sceptre Liquid, Enosys, Kinetic, and SparkDEX. The first three are liquid staking platforms with over $38 million in assets.

Flare price chart | Source: TradingView

A closer look at Flare’s daily chart suggests that it could be ripe for a comeback in the near term. The token has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is nearing its confluence level.

This pattern is formed by connecting the token’s lower lows and lower highs. Typically, a bullish breakout occurs when the two lines near their convergence. If this pattern materializes, FLR could jump to $0.03260, its highest point on June 6, which would represent a 100% increase from its Aug. 15 levels.

For this to happen, Flare will need more catalysts beyond its on-chain metrics. For example, it will require significant ecosystem news accompanied by a strong bullish breakout.

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Bitcoin stuck in apathy phase, but big moves are coming: analyst

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Bitcoin price has moved sideways this week even as American stocks continued their post-Black Monday crash rally. 

Bitcoin (BTC), the biggest cryptocurrency in the industry, has been stuck in a narrow range between $58,000 and $60,000 this week.

Bitcoin has had positive headlines

In contrast, the Dow Jones index has risen for three consecutive days and is just 2.5% below its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices have also recovered, while the US dollar index has retreated.

Bitcoin has remained stagnant even as more large American companies disclosed their Bitcoin ETF investments in their filings. Goldman Sachs revealed that it had $418 million invested in Bitcoin ETFs. Other companies like Charles Schwab, Nomura, Citigroup, and Barclays have also invested in these funds.

At the same time, the crypto industry is gaining some regulatory clarity. On Aug. 14, Charles Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, stated that he was committed to passing a crypto-related bill by the end of the year. He made the statement in a forum where Democrats expressed their support for the industry.

Still, it is unclear whether the divided Congress will pass anything before the November election. Schumer would need 60 votes for the crypto bill to pass, which has become difficult in recent years.

Additionally, Marathon Digital, one of the top Bitcoin mining companies, has continued to accumulate Bitcoin holdings. It bought coins worth over $250 million this week, bringing its total holdings to 25,000.

Most importantly, there are signs that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates now that the unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% and inflation is falling.

Bitcoin price could stage a comeback

In an X post, Miles Deutscher, a popular crypto analyst with over 534,000 followers, noted that Bitcoin was getting boring and that it was entering the apathy/time capitulation phase. He observed that the number of crypto-related views on YouTube had dropped by 30% in the past two weeks and that trading volume had fallen by 21%.

Data by DeFi Llama shows that DEX volume in chains like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Arbitrum (ARB) has fallen by over 33% in the last 7 days. Miles believes that this would be the best time to accumulate.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Technically, Bitcoin is hovering at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average while the accumulation/distribution indicator is in an uptrend, signaling that accumulation is ongoing.

Most importantly, BTC has formed a bullish flag chart pattern, characterized by a vertical line and a rectangle pattern. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the coin will bounce back if bulls push it above the resistance point at $62,513.

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