Lưu trữ cho từ khóa: Price Analysis

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Red alert: Toncoin price flips key support as death cross nears

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Toncoin price continued its downward trend, crossing a key support level as cryptocurrencies dropped.

Toncoin (TON) fell by 15% on Sep. 4, making it the worst-performing top-ten cryptocurrency. The price dropped to a low of $4.60, down more than 44% from its 2023 high. Its market cap has fallen from a peak of $23 billion to $11 billion.

TON’s decline coincided with a drop in funds secured in its decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. Total value locked (TVL) decreased from a year-to-date high of $770 million to $318 million, its lowest point since June. In TON terms, TVL fell from 115 million TON to 66.1 million.

The TON Blockchain has also slipped from being a top 20 chain in the DeFi industry, overtaken by networks like Linea, Mantle, Aptos, and Cronos.

Its monthly performance has also been weaker than other chains. Its total value locked have dropped by 33% in the last 30 days while Solana (SOL), Base, Avalanche (AVAX), and Sui (SUI) has risen by over 26%. 

Additionally, the volume of assets traded on TON’s decentralized exchanges has fallen more sharply than on other chains, dropping by 62% in the past seven days to $144 million. By contrast, the trading volume on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana decreased by less than 30%.

TON’s recent performance may have been negatively influenced by the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France. Authorities accused him of complicity in serious crimes, including aiding organized crime and refusing to comply with law enforcement orders. If convicted on all charges, Durov could face over ten years in prison.

Looking ahead, the next potential catalyst for the Toncoin price will be this month’s Tapswap and Hamster Kombat airdrops. Hamster, the popular tap-to-earn mini-app will launch its airdrop on Sep. 26. TapSwap’s airdrop date has not been confirmed but the developers have committed to do so in the third quarter, which ends this month. 

Hamster and TapSwap are some of the most popular tap-to-earn platforms with over 300 million and 65 million users, respectively. Therefore, TON could see more activity when the two start trading. 

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that the number of active wallets in TON has risen to a record high of 14.6 million while the total TON supply has soared to 5.1 billion.

TON price crossed a key support

Toncoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Technically, signs suggest that Toncoin may continue to decline. The price crossed a key support level at $4.76, which was the lowest swing in May and August, and formed the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern—a bearish signal in technical analysis.

Additionally, the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages are nearing a death cross pattern, further indicating a potential downtrend. The next key point for TON being $4.00

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Immutable X braces for a big token unlock as NFT sales drop

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Immutable X token is stuck in a deep bear market ahead of a big token unlock and as the outlook for non-fungible tokens darkens.

Immutable X (IMX) retreated to $1.958 on Sep. 3, 67% lower than the year-to-date high of $3.74. It was also hovering near its lowest point since November last year.

Immutable X, the popular layer-2 blockchain for gaming and NFTs, will be in the spotlight on Thursday, Sep. 6, as it unlocks more tokens.  According to CMC, the network will unlock 32.47 million IMX tokens worth over $41.2 million, leading to more dilution for existing holders. 

These new tokens will move to project development, ecosystem development, private sales, and the foundation reserve. Immutable X is then scheduled to unlock over 113.7 million more tokens by December this year. 

According to TokenUnlocks, Immutable has unlocked over 1.58 billion tokens and has 416.15 million to go. If all goes well, the vesting schedule will end in November next year.

Token unlocks are seen as negative catalysts for a cryptocurrency because they dilute existing holders, especially stakers. According to its website, staking rewards are generated from the 20% protocol fee and are then distributed to stakers every 14 days. As such, additional tokens in these pools often lead to lower returns.

Immutable X token has also dropped as concerns about the NFT industry continue. Recent data shows that the monthly NFT sales and transactions have continued to fall this year. According to CryptoSlam, total NFT sales in the last 30 days dropped by over 24% to $16.8 million. Buyers and sellers also fell by 41% and 25%, respectively.

On the positive side, there are signs that the network’s gaming ecosystem is doing well. This week, Immutable X partnered with Portal, a leading Web3 distribution platform. This partnership will lead to enhanced distribution of games built on Immutable X and liquidity improvements.

Immutable X price is nearing a key support

Immutable X price chart | Source: TradingView

The IMX token has slipped from the year-to-date high of $3.7570 to $1.200, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement point. It formed a death cross in June and then retested the key resistance point at $1.7185 in August. A break and retest pattern is a popular sign of a continuation.

Therefore, Immutable X token will likely drop and retest the important support at $0.9043, its lowest swing in August. A drop below that point will lead to more downside.

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Notcoin down 34% in 10 days, can the bulls trigger a reversal?

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Notcoin has been on a consistent downtrend since it dropped from a critical psychological support level in late August.

The bearish phase for Notcoin (NOT) began on Aug. 24, when it fell below the crucial $0.01 support. The following day, NOT further plunged beneath the Fibonacci Pivot support at $0.00986, cementing its position in bearish territory.

NOT 1D chart – Sept. 4 | Source: crypto.news

Meanwhile, the market’s outlook for the asset worsened on Aug. 26, coinciding with reports of Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest. The news of Durov’s detention triggered a sharp 12.47% drop, the steepest since Aug. 7. 

Following this, Notcoin entered a period of consolidation, with prices stabilizing briefly. However, September has seen a resurgence of bearish sentiment across the broader crypto market, exacerbating NOT’s bearish situation. 

Currently, Notcoin is trading at $0.00754, marking a four-month low. This shows a 34% decline from its Aug. 24 price of $0.01142. 

Moreover, the asset’s daily Relative Strength Index has fallen steadily, now sitting at 32, suggesting that Notcoin is slightly oversold. Further sharp price declines could trigger a drop below 30, pushing Notcoin deep into oversold territories.

If NOT manages to break and hold above the $0.00772 level, it could signal the beginning of a consolidation phase or even a potential recovery. 

However, the declining RSI suggests continued bearish pressure, and further push below this territory could lead to further losses, with the next significant support at $0.00640.

On the upside, a rebound toward the Pivot level at $0.00986 could signify a recovery attempt. However, the bulls would need significant momentum to reclaim this level and challenge the resistance at $0.01200. 

However, without strong buying interest, Notcoin risks deeper losses, making the current support levels crucial in determining its next move.

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Injective price forms ‘lower highs across the board,’ says analyst

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Injective, the popular Cosmos-based blockchain for decentralized finance, continued retreating amid concerns about its ecosystem.

Injective (INJ) token retreated to $16.90 on Sep. 3, its lowest point since Aug. 8. It has dropped by over 67% from its highest point this year, erasing most of the gains it made in 2023. Its valuation has dropped from over $4.8 billion in March to $1.65 billion.

Ecosystem challenges remain

Injective’s price action has coincided with the sell-off of most altcoins as the crypto fear and greed index remained at the neutral point of 47. 

This decline has occurred despite a significant increase in the network’s on-chain transactions. According to its website, Injective has handled over 918 million transactions since its launch.

However, concerns persist about its ecosystem in relation to its valuation. Data from DeFi Llama shows that its DEX protocols handled $43.7 million in the last seven days, making it the 23rd largest chain in the industry, lagging behind platforms like Osmosis, Mantle, and Blast.

Injective’s DEX volume has been in steady decline after peaking at $611 million in March this year, indicating that its DEX ecosystem is not experiencing growth.

Injective DEX volume | Source: DeFi Llama

The total value locked in the Injective ecosystem has retreated to $46.5 million, making it the 51st largest chain. This TVL has also been decreasing after peaking at $72 million earlier this year. Additionally, the volume of stablecoins in its ecosystem has dropped to $22.6 million.

Injective’s performance in the DeFi industry is notable because its goal is to become the blockchain for the financial services industry.

Injective token has also retreated as its staking inflows have declined. Data shows that the network has experienced outflows in the past two days, while the staking yield has retreated to 10.4% from last month’s high of 18.7%.

Trader cautions on Injective

Injective price chart | Source: TradingView

INJ token has pulled back after reaching a high of $52.96 in March. Recently, it has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that bears are in control. In a note, Altcoin Sherpa, a trader with over 222,000 X followers, warned that the token remains at risk of further downside.

Injective has also remained below the 50-day moving average, while the accumulation/distribution indicator has continued to decline, pointing to increased distribution.

Its volume has also continued to fall, suggesting more downside. This sell-off will be confirmed if it drops below the descending trendline that connects the lowest swings since April 12.

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ORDI secures top gainer spot amid 17% spike

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ORDI has secured the top gainer spot, posting double-digit gains despite the prevalent bearish market condition.

ORDI (ORDI) is up 17.76% in the past 24 hours securing a position as the top gainer among the leading 100 cryptocurrencies. This surge follows a period of consolidation and signals a potential shift in market sentiment.

ORDI 1D chart – Sept. 3 | Source: crypto.news

From Aug. 29 to Sept. 1, ORDI has been trading within a narrow range, consolidating between a high of $28 and a low of $25. This sideways movement came after a steep decline from its recent peak of $36.96 on Aug. 24. During this period, ORDI lost nearly 28.78% of its value, breaking below several key support levels above $30.

However, the tide seems to be turning. The latest rally has pushed ORDI back above the crucial $30 mark, a level that is now acting as a support. 

ORDI is trading at $31.53 at the time of writing. This rebound is crucial, as it marks the first time in nearly a week that ORDI has managed to reclaim the $30 threshold.

A look at the volume profile reveals an increase in trading volumes since yesterday. This suggests growing investor interest, potentially driven by the belief that ORDI’s recent decline was overextended.

Moreover, the Directional Movement Index shows the +DI spiking upward. This indicates that the bulls are strengthening the bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the -DI is on the decline, signaling weakening selling pressure. 

The Average Directional Index, which measures the strength of a trend, is also falling, revealing that the bearish trend that dominated since Aug. 24 is losing steam. 

Despite the recent upsurge, market analyst Yuriy asserted that the time for long positions is past, suggesting that the latest uptrend might not be sustainable over the next few days. 

This is largely due to a lack of support from the broader market.

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Tron price retreats as ecosystem growth, open interest falls

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Tron price has retreated over the past eight days as recent momentum in the ecosystem began to fade.

Tron (TRX) was trading at $0.1565 on Monday, Sep. 2, down by over 7% from its highest point this year. This retreat has brought its market cap to over $13.5 billion.

Tron’s key metrics are falling

Still, Tron has been one of the best-performing major coins in recent weeks, having jumped by over 44% from its lowest level in August. It also reached a record high of $0.1690.

The token performed well following several major events during the month. The most notable was the launch of SunPump, the network’s meme coin generator. In less than three weeks, thousands of memes have been created, generating almost $50 million in fees. All meme coins in the ecosystem have a market cap of over $493 million. 

Recently, however, there are signs that the Tron ecosystem is losing momentum. For example, Sundog (SUNDOG), the biggest meme coin in the ecosystem, has dropped by over 24% from its highest level in August.

Other tokens like Suncat, SunWukong, FoFar, and Dragon Sun have also dropped by over 50% in the last seven days.

Additional data shows that Tron’s total value locked in its decentralized exchange network has dropped by 8% in the past seven days to over $8.1 billion. The volume of tokens traded in Tron’s decentralized exchanges has fallen by over 21% in the last seven days. 

Meanwhile, Tron’s open interest in the futures market has also continued falling. It moved to over $141 million on Sep. 2, down from August’s high of $234 million.

Still, Tron is one of the most popular blockchains in the industry. Its network has brought in over $1.1 billion in revenues this year, making it the second most profitable blockchains in the industry. It also has over $59 billion in stablecoins and 2.24 million active addresses. 

Tron price rally has eased

Tron price chart | Source: TradingView

Tron has been in an uptrend since bottoming in 2021, making it less correlated with Bitcoin (BTC) compared to other coins. It jumped to a record high of $0.1690 last month and has now retreated to $0.155.

Tron remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the key resistance point at $0.1451, its highest swing in February.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the token will drop to the psychological point at $0.15 and then resume its bullish trend. More upside will be confirmed if it rises above the year-to-date high of $0.1690.

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AVAX, MATIC, AAVE: Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week

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The cryptocurrency market lost $190 billion last week amid a sharp correction, bringing the global crypto market cap to $2.07 trillion by the end of the week. 

Here are some of the most noteworthy performers from last week based on their significant price action and investor sentiment.

AVAX records six losing candles

Last week, Avalanche (AVAX) experienced a significant decline, losing 15.8% of its value as it closed the week at $22.81. The asset witnessed a consistent bearish trend, with six out of seven days recording losses. 

AVAX 1D chart – Sept. 1 | Source: crypto.news

Despite this downtrend, the RSI-based moving average saw a slight uptick, suggesting potential stabilization. Volume has also gradually decreased, indicating that the bearish trend could be facing a possible exhaustion.

Key areas of interest to watch in the coming days include the recent low of around $22, which could act as support if the Avalanche bearish momentum continues. 

Meanwhile, a break above $24 might signal a shift in sentiment. However, AVAX’s next move could depend heavily on the strength of the broader cryptocurrency market, which triggered the recent cluster of losses.

MATIC collapses 26% in a week

Polygon (MATIC) fell sharply by 26.5%, closing last week at $0.4196.

This disappointing performance came on the back of a bearish engulfing candle on Aug. 25. Such a candlestick suggests that sellers had taken full control of the market.

MATIC 1D chart – Sept. 1 | Source: crypto.news

Polygon recorded seven consecutive days of losses despite a surge in network activity. Amid the downtrend, it dropped below the upper Bollinger Band on Aug. 25 and the middle band on Aug. 28. However, it remains above the lower band.

This pattern suggests that the asset is in a clear downtrend but not yet oversold. In the coming days, the lower Bollinger Band around $0.3510 could serve as potential support if the bearish trend persists. 

A break below this level could signal further declines. 

However, a move above the middle band near $0.4568 might suggest a recovery.

AAVE demonstrates resilience

Aave (AAVE) demonstrated relative strength last week, closing with a milder 5.37% drop at $129.71. Unlike many assets, AAVE avoided setting new lows, buoyed by two days of notable gains. 

AAVE 1D chart – Sept. 1 | Source: crypto.news

Despite the bearish pressure, the asset remained above both the 50-day EMA ($112.50) and the 200-day EMA ($101). This suggests a predominant bullish outlook in the medium to long term.

This position indicates that AAVE is currently in a stronger technical position compared to many other assets. However, the 50-day EMA around $112.50 is worthy of note in the coming days. 

A dip below this level could signal a shift in sentiment. Conversely, a move above $130 could suggest renewed buying interest.

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Kaiko: Here’s why Bitcoin price dropped in August

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Bitcoin price is on track for a monthly decline even as major stock indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and Nifty 50 jumped to record highs. 

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped by almost 10% in August, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose by over 2% and gold peaked at an all-time high of $2,530.

This performance occurred despite the US dollar index plunging to $100.1, down by over 6% from its highest point this year. Typically, Bitcoin performs better when the greenback is falling. Notably, it fell even as spot Bitcoin ETFs added a net $188 million in assets.

According to Kaiko, the likely reason for the sell-off is that investors are concerned about the falling liquidity in the Bitcoin market and rising worries that governments will start selling their holdings. 

The German government sold its Bitcoin holdings in July, while an analyst recommended that the UK should offload its 61,000 coins to fund its budget. The odds of the UK selling its holdings have increased now that the government has identified a $22 billion hole in its budget.

The other top Bitcoin holders are the United States, China, and Ukraine, which hold 213,246, 190,000, and 46,351 coins, respectively.

Bitcoin spot and futures dropped in August

Additionally, the analysts noted that volumes in the spot and futures markets have been subdued this month. In most periods, cryptocurrencies experience thin volumes when prices are not performing well.

Data from DeFi Llama shows that Decentralized Exchanges handled over $167 billion in volume in August, down from $193 billion the previous month. Another report by CoinMarketCap shows that the volume peaked on August 5 and then resumed its downward trend.

Crypto volume in August | Source: CoinMarketCap

On a positive note, an analyst from Fundstrat mentioned that Bitcoin’s volume tends to bounce back after the Labor Day weekend on Monday, meaning that it may see some more movement in September.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Another positive is that Bitcoin has formed a hammer chart pattern on the monthly chart, indicating a potential rebound. It has also formed a cup and handle pattern, as shown above. Hammer and C&H patterns are some of the most bullish patterns in the market.

However, a key risk is that September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin. It has dropped in eight of the last eleven Septembers.

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Popcat price skids, yet open interest and charts indicate a rebound

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Popcat, a top Solana meme coin, re-entered a bear market, falling by over 22% from its highest point this week. 

The Popcat (POPCAT) token dropped to a low of $0.6098, its lowest level since Aug. 23, erasing most of the gains made earlier this month. This retreat gave it a market cap of over $608 million.

Popcat’s futures open interest is stable

Earlier this month, Popcat rose for seven consecutive days after Binance listed its futures, allowing users to trade it with up to 75x leverage. More exchanges like KuCoin Futures and OKX also listed Popcat’s futures this week.

Cryptocurrencies tend to rise sharply after being listed by top tier-1 exchanges and then pull back as the hype retreats.

These listings explain why Popcat’s futures open interest has been relatively stable this week. It stood at $50.63 million on Friday, Aug. 30, with most of it coming from exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and Bitget. 

The open interest was slightly lower than this week’s high of $59.8 million. These numbers indicate that there is still some demand for Popcat among traders.

Popcat open interest | Chart by CoinGlass

Popcat’s recent retreat has mirrored the performance of many of the larger and more popular cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to consolidate around the $60,000 level. Similarly, most meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Floki have dropped in the past seven days. 

The crypto fear and greed index, a popular measure of sentiment, has retreated from this month’s high of 59 to the neutral point of 46. Meme coins like Popcat thrive when traders are a bit greedy.

Popcat and other Solana meme coins have also faced substantial competition from the newly launched Tron (TRX) tokens. Data from CoinGecko shows that these meme coins have accumulated a market cap of over $370 million. 

Popcat crossed a key support level

Popcat price chart | Source: TradingView

Popcat token rose and peaked at $0.8072 this week and then suffered a harsh reversal, falling 21% to $0.6283, its lowest point since Aug. 23.

It dropped below the important support level of $0.6845, its highest swing on Aug. 29, and the upper side of the cup and handle pattern. It also retested the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point and formed a bullish flag pattern.

Therefore, Popcat’s price will likely have a bullish breakout, with the next point to watch being the psychological level of $0.70.

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