A cryptocurrency trader recently missed out on a massive profit potential after selling his Goatseus Maximus tokens too soon.
According to data provided by Solscan, the trader initially bought 19.72 million GOAT tokens on Oct. 10, making three separate transactions between 21:37 and 21:48 UTC. He spent 40 Solana (SOL), worth $5,500 at the time, to acquire his holdings.
However, shortly after his purchase, the price of GOAT faced extreme volatility, crashing by over 72% within just an hour. The token’s value fell to a low of $0.00004076, prompting the trader to panic.
Fearing the price might drop to zero, as is common with new meme coin projects, he decided to sell his entire position at 22:24 UTC, barely an hour after his purchase.
The trader sold all 19.72 million GOAT tokens for just 7.87 SOL, about $1,100, taking a loss of 80% on his initial investment, amounting to $4,400. At the time, this seemed like a sensible decision given the sharp price decline. However, just five days later, the asset’s price skyrocketed.
The 19.72 million tokens the trader sold are now worth over $6 million at the time of writing, as the token’s value climbed to $0.3082. This represented a massive increase of 751,126% from the earlier low of $0.00004076.
The recent event is the latest in a long line of similar occurrences. In March, an investor who participated in the Book of Meme (BOME) presale sold their BOME tokens too early. Despite earning over $100,000 in profits, they missed out on a $1 million gain.
In August, another trader sold their Sundog (SUNDOG) tokens to net a profit of about $400 within 20 minutes. However, this proved to be a premature decision, as the tokens’ value rallied to $2 million days later.
The Sui Foundation has denied allegations that insiders sold $400 million worth of SUI tokens during the recent price surge, asserting that lockups are being properly enforced.
The Sui Foundation has found itself in hot water after a crypto analyst raised concerns about alleged insider token sales during the recent surge in Sui’s price.
One thing that I’ve found more and more baffling in the last few weeks is the vertical ascent of SUI, with it quintupling off the lows (Ex 1). The market is starved for winners, and believes it has found one here, yet it all feels awfully chintzy for two reasons that I think feed… pic.twitter.com/VKISXpdxp1
In a Monday tweet, on Oct. 14, pseudonymous analyst Lightcrypto claimed that “insiders” sold $400 million worth of (SUI) tokens, linking specific wallets associated with the initial coin offering to the alleged sales. Lightcrypto’s assertions sparked debate within the crypto community, as the analyst questioned the integrity of those building the Sui ecosystem.
“It does not bring comfort that the people building this ecosystem, the people who arguably know this token’s value best, are unloading hundreds of millions of dollars of token into less informed buyers chasing momentum.”
Lightcrypto
In response, the Sui Foundation issued a statement on Oct. 15, refuting the claims, emphasizing that neither its employees nor investors associated with Mysten Labs, which developed the Sui blockchain, engaged in any such selling. The Foundation clarified that all token lockups are “enforced by qualified custodians and continuously monitored by Sui Foundation […].”
Following an allegation of “Sui insiders selling $400M in tokens throughout this run-up,” Sui Foundation would like to respond directly to this individual:
1. No insiders, neither employees of the Foundation or Mysten Labs (including Mysten Labs founders), nor ML investors,…
While the foundation did not specify any individuals, it suggested that Lightcrypto may have been referring to a wallet controlled by an “infrastructure partner” who holds tokens under a lockup schedule. Following this statement, the price of SUI fell by 1.7% to $2.21. Nevertheless, the token has seen a significant increase of 106% over the past 30 days, according to data from crypto.news’ price page.
The crypto market recorded a notable bearish momentum over the past day, bringing increased liquidations.
According to data provided by CoinGecko, the global crypto market capitalization declined by 3% in the past 24 hours — falling from $2.31 trillion to $2.27 trillion. This shows a roughly $40 billion decrease.
The daily trading volume, however, rallied by 50%, reaching $99.5 billion.
Many of the leading cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), saw downshifts. BTC is currently trading at $62,400 and ETH is hovering close to the $2,400 mark.
The market-wide decline brought a $220 million liquidation, per data from Coinglass. Over 69% of the liquidations, worth $153 million, belong to long positions.
Data shows that Bitcoin is leading the chart with $58.6 million in liquidations — $35.1 longs and $23.4 million shorts. Ethereum is hovering close with $50.6 million in liquidated trading positions — $42.8 million longs and $7.8 million short.
Binance alone accounts for $105 million in liquidations, followed by OKX’s $74 million.
According to Coinglass data, the largest single liquidation, worth $10.97 million in ETH/USDT pair, happened on Binance.
Following the mass liquidations, the total cryptocurrency open interest decreased by 2% and is currently sitting at $60.9 billion.
Usually, a declining open interest brings lower price volatility due to a decreased amount of expected liquidations.
Cardano dropped 57% when the Federal Reserve cut rates back in 2019. With another rate cut on the horizon, the cryptocurrency faces a similar setup that could bring major downside.
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Cardano prepares for September decline
In May 2019, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut, lowering rates from 2.42% to 2.39%. Rates at that time were much lower than today, and the public debt stood at $22 trillion. Today, debt has increased to nearly $35 trillion, and interest rates now stand at 5.33%, more than double the 2019 levels.
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
When the rates started to fall in 2019, Cardano experienced a sudden drop. After a brief period of recovery, the downtrend continued for months until early 2020. An uptrend emerged later, but the market downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with further rate cuts. Despite uncertainties around the exact link between rate cuts and crypto declines, Cardano and the broader market saw a clear decrease in value.
A similar scenario could unfold today. Crypto has shown correlations with traditional finance in the past, including during the 2019 rate cut. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is likely to result in a rate cut based on CME data. If the market follows the 2019 pattern, Cardano could face a multi-month decline, which could last until the end of the year, before recovering in early 2025. A repeat of the previous trend could push Cardano’s price down to around $0.15.
Additionally, September has often proven to be a tough month for both stocks and crypto. In September 2020, during a halving year, Cardano also faced a downtrend. Coupled with the current 10% drop since the start of this month, these factors could drive Cardano toward a deeper fall in the weeks and months ahead below its 2022 support line at $0.2349.
Cardano’s bearish momentum grows with SRSI, MACD, and VRVP
Many traders focus on short-term movements, but stepping back for a longer-term view can give a better sense of the bigger picture. Cardano’s monthly Stochastic RSI (SRSI) and MACD are flashing warning signs that shouldn’t be ignored, and both are painting a rough picture for ADA.
The SRSI tracks momentum by looking at an asset’s price range over time. The scale goes from 0 to 100, with anything below 20 showing oversold conditions. Since March 2024, the SRSI has been sliding, and it’s now closing in on that oversold region.
The MACD, meanwhile, is showing similar bearish vibes. On the monthly chart, the MACD line has already crossed below the signal line, which is a sign of downward pressure. The histogram, which shows the gap between the two lines, is about to flip red, also pointing to a growing bearish momentum.
Alongside the bearish signals from the Stochastic RSI and MACD, the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) adds even more negative pressure to the outlook. The VRVP shows where most trading volumes occurred at various price levels. In Cardano’s case, the volume bars within the current price range are quite thin, which indicates weak support. The biggest volume bar begins at the $0.15 level, suggesting a strong support zone there. Below the current price, there’s a gap in the volume profile, which means if Cardano continues to fall, there’s little trading activity to slow down the drop until it reaches that $0.15 zone.
Is Cardano’s 2022 support line strong enough to hold?
Despite the bearish indicators, a couple of factors could prevent Cardano from dropping sharply. At the moment, the price sits within a macro Fibonacci golden pocket, drawn from the all-time low to the recent high in March 2024. This zone, between $0.2951 and $0.3204, has acted as support for now. However, when looking at other Fibonacci retracements from different points, ADA has already fallen below the 78.6% retracement on every one of them. This could raise doubts about the strength of the current golden pocket, as there’s a possibility it may not hold up in the long term.
A stronger support level, however, lies at $0.2349, a line that was respected during the 2022 bear market. But, with ADA currently around $0.315, a drop to that support would still represent a 25% decline, which would be far from ideal.
Strategic considerations
In our view, there could be a dead cat bounce before the September 18 Fed meeting. However, after that, ADA is likely to face a 2-3 month downtrend until the Fed slows the pace of its rate cuts. A more cautious strategy would be to wait for ADA to drop below the $0.2951 golden pocket before shorting. This offers a safer entry point compared to shorting immediately right now, as Cardano could see a short-term uptrend while holding above the golden pocket. If the price falls below this level, shorting down to $0.2349 becomes a more calculated move.
In just 10 days, POPCAT has dropped over 30%, but the decline may not be over. A deeper analysis of multiple indicators reveals that further declines could be on the horizon.
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Inside POPCAT’s parallel channel
POPCAT respects a parallel channel that defines its movement. While there have been moments when the price broke above or below the channel, it continues to adhere to this pattern over time. The white lines on the chart offer a simplified representation of the price movements within the channel.
Looking ahead, the yellow lines depict a possible future path for POPCAT. The next move could see a drop to around $0.43 in the coming weeks, representing a further decline of over 23% from the current level. After this, the price may then rally towards $0.87 around October to November.
Gartley harmonic pattern on the verge of completion
One strong indication that supports the likelihood of a further downturn in POPCAT is the development of the Gartley harmonic pattern on its daily chart. The Gartley pattern is a type of harmonic price formation that signals potential reversal zones based on Fibonacci ratios and has an 85% success rate. It consists of five points—X, A, B, C, and D—and represents a retracement followed by a continuation of the overall trend.
In the case of POPCAT, the pattern has formed with the final point D yet to be completed. If the Gartley pattern completes as expected, the price could drop to approximately $0.38. This target lies slightly below the lower boundary of the established parallel channel.
MACD Reversal
Another factor pointing toward a potential continued decline in POPCAT is the recent bearish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. The MACD is a momentum indicator that consists of two lines: the MACD line and the signal line. It shows the strength and direction of a trend by analyzing the relationship between these two lines.
A crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, which is seen as a bearish signal, similar to a “death cross” in moving averages. The crossover means that the momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish.
Counterpoints: Limited downturn possibility
While several factors suggest a continued downturn for POPCAT, there are also indicators that could limit or even conclude the current decline.
First, there is a confluence of multiple Fibonacci golden pockets in the $0.53 to $0.593 range. These include the Fibonacci retracement from the low on August 19 to the high on August 25, the high on July 1 to the low on August 5, and the low on July 5 to the high on July 21. Additionally, the 50% retracement levels from other Fibonaccis also converge within this price zone, which strengthens the support in this area. Until POPCAT drops below $0.53, the downward movement will likely not continue. On the other hand, if it fails to break above $0.593, we also cannot confirm that the decline has ended.
Adding to this, the historical volatility range for POPCAT between $0.50 and $0.55 has been quite an important zone, acting as support or resistance on 38 different occasions. The area closely aligns with the golden pocket confluence, which further reinforces the significance of this zone as a potential floor for the current downtrend.
Lastly, the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) adds another layer of support in the $0.55 to $0.593 area. The VRVP is a tool that displays trading activity at various price levels and highlights areas with high trading volumes as major zones of support or resistance. In this case, the volume bar in the $0.55 to $0.593 range is the biggest and suggests strong buyer interest. However, if POPCAT drops below $0.40, the volume profile thins out considerably, indicating little to no support below that level, which could lead to even steeper declines if breached.
Strategic considerations
At the current price level, POPCAT presents a conundrum. On the one hand, several indicators suggest further downturns, while on the other, key support levels hint that the bearish phase may have already run its course, with bullish momentum potentially on the horizon.
In our analysis, which aligns with insights shared in previous articles, the upcoming monetary policy shift—specifically the anticipated rate cuts in September—combined with the historically weak performance of cryptocurrencies in September could render these support zones for POPCAT obsolete. Given this outlook, the strategic approach would involve shorting POPCAT down to the $0.43 level.
Helium (HNT) has gained 158.15% since the beginning of July, showing a strong upward trend. The key question now is whether HNT will continue its climb or if there will be a pullback on the horizon.
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While Helium’s (HNT) bullish run has been exciting, it may soon turn into a disappointment for investors. The lack of consolidation or pullback during this rally raises concerns that one might be on the horizon. Here’s why a pullback could be imminent.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Examining the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), we notice the histogram shifting from dark green to light green, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The MACD lines are also beginning to converge, suggesting that the current uptrend may be losing steam. A potential bearish crossover could signal a reversal in trend.
RSI and Stochastic RSI
Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic RSI are in overvalued territory, with readings above 60. Historically, when RSI and Stochastic RSI have reached 60+ levels, they tend to retreat significantly, often accompanied by a sharp price decline.
Support and resistance levels
The current price action shows strong resistance levels at $8.5 and $10. These levels have proven difficult to surpass or acted as strong support levels in the past. Meanwhile, the $7 level serves as a weak area. Currently, it has acted as resistance, but its role could change if HNT breaks above it. If the price fails to break through $7, a more pronounced downtrend is likely to begin.
Fibonacci confluence levels
By applying Fibonacci retracement levels from three different time frames—the initial day of trading to the recent high, the low of June to the recent high, and the high of March to the low of June—we identify multiple confluence levels. These confluence levels are clustered around $6 and $4.7.
The area between $4.7 and $6 forms what we refer to as a “box of opportunity.” This range presents a potential target zone for a short position, with the expectation that HNT could retrace this area if the downtrend continues.
Historical support lies at $3, but a drop to this level seems unlikely unless significant negative events occur in the broader market, similar to what happened with Japan’s surprise rate hike and Jump Trading’s selling spree in late July and early August.
Strategic Considerations
Before initiating a short position, it’s important to confirm the downtrend. Although the trend has recently shifted, there’s always the possibility of a bear trap. To minimize risk, we recommend waiting for HNT to fall below $6.3958, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the June low to the August high. Once HNT breaks below this level, and it acts as resistance, the shorting opportunity becomes much safer.
Another factor to consider is the Visible Range Volume Profile, which shows a weak volume area between $5.5 and $6.5. Prices tend to move quickly through such low-volume zones, further supporting the likelihood of a downward move. However, currently, HNT is within a high-volume zone, which could potentially serve as a consolidation area.
The Chart of the Week series has consistently delivered accurate predictions, and the past two weeks’ focus on Aave and Sui is no exception. Both tokens moved as anticipated, allowing traders to hit profit targets and realize substantial gains.
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Aave smashes all 4 profit targets
From August 2 to August 5, Aave’s price action followed the pattern we predicted, hitting all four profit targets within just three days.
Source: TradingView
The $115 resistance level has a history of acting as a strong barrier for Aave. Our analysis suggested that this resistance would hold, and Aave would likely face a pullback. Traders who followed our guidance and entered a short position around the $115 mark saw major returns as Aave declined by -21.74%.
Source: TradingView
Sui Hits $1
Sui presented a different opportunity, with our analysis identifying a potential for upward movement. For traders who followed our advice and used the hourly chart to time their entry, an optimal position could have been taken around 10:00 AM UTC on August 10 at $0.88.
Source: TradingView
Again, by Monday, in just three days, the price action hit both profit targets at $0.9271 and $1.00, resulting in a 13.64% gain for those who exited at the second target.
Source: TradingView
Conclusion
The effectiveness of the Chart of the Week analysis will continue to manifest in the long term, but the prediction success rate currently stands at 92.31%, with 12 out of 13 trades being successful. Stay tuned for future analysis each Friday.
Sui has surged by 38.57% since last Friday due to positive market developments and major news. Grayscale Investments launched two new crypto investment trusts, one including Sui, which boosted investor interest.
Additionally, macroeconomic factors, such as the market’s recovery from a recent Yen rate hike and a selling spree by Jump Trading, contributed to Sui’s rise (SUI). These factors have led to a strong rally, raising the question of whether Sui can sustain this momentum or if a pullback might occur.
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Supply dynamics
Sui has a high inflation rate, with its supply rising rapidly. This is particularly relevant as token unlocks can lead to downward pressure on the price. Fortunately, the upcoming unlock, which accounts for 2% of the total supply, is still 22 days away. Traders planning to exit before this event may not need to worry about its immediate impact.
Downtrend and parallel channel
Since late March, Sui has been stuck in a pronounced downtrend, shedding over 61% of its value. From mid-April, the price action formed a parallel channel, which has acted as both support and resistance, containing the price movement within its bounds. At present, Sui is trading near the upper boundary of this channel, where it encounters resistance. A critical support level to watch lies around $0.60, where the midline of the channel coincides with previous historical support.
Fibonacci retracements
Applying Fibonacci retracement from the March high to the August low, we pinpoint a key resistance level at $0.8681. The level also coincides with the upper boundary of the parallel channel and has historically acted as both support and resistance.
Additionally, a convergence of two macro Fibonacci retracements occurs at $0.75: the 78.6% retracement from Sui’s October 2023 low to its March 2024 high and the 23.6% retracement from its initial trading price in May 2023 to August 2024 low. Moreover, the $1 level, which has proven to be a major resistance and volatility zone, aligns with a golden pocket from the latter Fibonacci retracement.
Strategic considerations
Bullish scenario. Should SUI break out above the $0.8681 resistance level and hold above it on a retest, this could trigger a long entry. Key profit-taking targets would then be at $0.9271 and $1.00, where the next major resistance lies.
Bearish scenario: Despite the recent bounce in the market, the current rally may be overextended, which suggests a potential pullback. The unresolved yen carry trade situation and historically bearish seasonality in August add downside risk. If SUI fails to clear the $0.8681 resistance and instead faces rejection at this level, this would be a signal to short. Targets are $0.75 and $0.60.
Pi Network token price has remained in a consolidation phase since March as investors wait for the promised mainnet launch.
Pi Network price chart
The IOU token has been stuck at $40 in a low-volume environment.
Pi Network mainnet launch ahead
There are signs that Pi Network developers are gearing towards the much anticipated mainnet launch.
Earlier this year, the team listed three conditions that must be met for this to happen.
The first condition is that at least 15 million pioneers must be verified, a process that will remove bots from the ecosystem. In a recent note, the developers noted that over 11 million pioneers had passed the verification stage.
Another important step is the six-month grace period, which started earlier this month. During this period, all pioneers are required to complete the verification process. Therefore, if the other two conditions are met, Pi may move to the Open Network by either December or January.
As announced on Pi2Day, the 6-month Grace Period, essential for preparing Pi for Open Network, began on July 1. Pioneers must complete their KYC and Mainnet migration within specific deadlines defined by the Grace Period, which includes flexibility to accommodate Pioneers who are… pic.twitter.com/E7SfZ5kuwL
The other condition is that the developers hope that the network will have at least 100 dApps, a move that will create utility for the token. It is unclear how many dApps are in the current enclosed mainnet period.
Finally, Pi Network hopes to launch its ‘airdrop’ when the market is supportive, i.e., when cryptocurrencies are rising.
Pi Coin IOU has consolidated
The Pi Network IoU is a cryptocurrency launched in 2022 and is available in just a few exchanges. It initially jumped to $343 after launch and then plummeted as the Pi Network developers disowned it.
Since then, the token’s biggest jump happened in March, as Bitcoin reached a record high. At the time, it rose to $120 and then retreated to $40, where it has remained since March.
Pi Network’s token is thinly traded, with the average daily volume being less than $600,000, meaning that it is not a good representation of how the real Pi will trade.
Recent events in the tap-to-earnhave sent signals on what to expect when Pi Network is listed in major exchanges. Notcoin, the first tap-to-earn token to go public, initially rose to $0.030 in June and then pulled back to $0.016. Similarly, the Pixelverse (PIXFI) token rose to $0.10 and then dropped by 50% to $0.050.
While the technologies differ, Pi Network is a tap-to-earn platform since pioneers earn tokens by just tapping the app button. These platforms also create utilities like gaming.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Pi Coin IoU price will remain in a tight range as investors wait for the real deal: the mainnet launch.
