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Bitcoin

Don’t count on China’s trillion-dollar stimulus to rescue Bitcoin

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Could a flood of new liquidity from China’s massive stimulus spill into the crypto market, or is the excitement surrounding Bitcoin just misplaced optimism?

Bitcoin to the moon?

Lately, there’s been a lot of chatter about China’s potential $1.4 trillion stimulus, with some reports suggesting it could ignite a new crypto boom and send prices soaring. 

Forbes, in particular, hinted at a “shock and awe” injection that might have wide-reaching effects, including on the crypto market. While the idea of this massive stimulus driving the crypto market to new heights sounds enticing, the reality is far more complex. 

China’s economic challenges, the actual purpose of the stimulus, and its potential impact on crypto are all interconnected — but that doesn’t mean $1.4 trillion is about to flood into Bitcoin (BTC).

Instead, it aims to address deep-rooted economic issues in China, which has experts concerned and consumers tightening their belts. Let’s take a closer look at what this stimulus is really targeting and then explore how if at all, it could influence the crypto market.

The economic reality behind the $1.4 trillion stimulus

First, let’s look at what’s happening in China. Over the past few months, economic data coming out of the world’s second-largest economy hasn’t exactly been encouraging. 

According to analysts, China’s GDP growth for 2024 is now expected to hover around 4.7% to 4.8%, which is below the government’s 5% target. 

This revision came on the back of weak retail sales, industrial production, and urban investment data for August — none of which met economists’ expectations. 

Additionally, China’s urban jobless rate has climbed to its highest level in six months, and you can see why the government feels the need to act swiftly.

Professor Eswar Prasad from Cornell University pointed out in an interview with CNBC that China’s economic outlook for the second half of the year is ‘flashing red, or pretty close to red.’ 

The property market, which has long been a cornerstone of China’s economy, has long been facing a downturn that could take years to fix. The government has managed to avoid a full-blown financial crisis, but the challenges remain daunting. 

Duncan Wrigley, chief strategist at Everbright Securities, told CNBC that China’s housing market is going through a ‘slow, painful, grinding adjustment’—an adjustment that has put a serious damper on domestic demand.

Now, this brings us back to the stimulus. The idea of a trillion-dollar liquidity injection isn’t necessarily aimed at inflating the crypto market. Rather, it’s designed to shore up an economy that’s struggling to regain its footing after the COVID-19 pandemic. 

China has been dealing with sluggish consumer demand, weak private investment, and a falling housing market, all of which have caused concern among policymakers. 

Hence, it’s critical to understand that this stimulus is aimed at reviving the domestic economy — getting people to spend more, investing in infrastructure, and preventing deflation. 

The crypto hype: fact or fiction?

It’s tempting to think that new money sloshing around in China’s economy could push Bitcoin and other crypto assets to new highs. After all, when liquidity floods the market, riskier assets often see a boost. But expecting all or most of this cash to flow directly into crypto is wishful thinking.

The key is to understand how this stimulus will be used. Most of it will be targeted at domestic recovery, focusing on infrastructure projects, social spending, and tax cuts to get people spending again. 

If the stimulus is successful in reviving consumer confidence and economic stability, risk appetite might increase. Investors who feel more comfortable with the state of the economy could start looking for riskier investments, and that’s where crypto comes into play. 

Bitcoin and other digital assets often thrive in environments where there’s excess liquidity, especially when traditional assets like stocks or bonds seem less attractive.

But this hinges on many “ifs.” If the Chinese government rolls out the stimulus effectively, if consumer confidence rises, and if investors are willing to take on more risk, then we could see some of that liquidity trickle into the crypto market. 

However, there’s no guarantee, and it’s certainly not going to be a direct pipeline from China’s stimulus package to Bitcoin.

As Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out in his blog post, there is hope that China’s fiscal stimulus could indirectly fuel the next big crypto bull market. But even he acknowledges that this is more of a long-term play, and the effects won’t be immediate.

Moreover, Justin Sun, founder of Tron, recently joked that China will reopen its doors to crypto, but that’s a far cry from a confirmed policy shift.

For now, China’s 2021 ban on crypto trading and mining remains in place, and any change on that front would require a major reversal in government policy.

Reddit’s reality check

While excitement buzzed about China’s rumored trillion liquidity injection into Bitcoin, the Reddit community quickly poured cold water on the idea. 

A key point raised by users is China’s strict crypto restrictions. Since the 2021 crypto ban, not only is crypto mining illegal, but platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay are prohibited from handling crypto transactions.

One user pointed out that China doesn’t typically distribute stimulus money directly to consumers. Instead, it focuses on supporting producers to reduce production costs. 

This, coupled with the fact that even before the ban, China’s crypto adoption per capita was lower than in the U.S. or Europe, makes it highly unlikely that large amounts would flow into Bitcoin.

Another user highlighted that any stimulus distribution would likely take the form of the digital yuan, not Bitcoin, given the government’s tight control over the financial system.

On top of that, many users pointed out a more practical reason why the stimulus wouldn’t end up in crypto: much of the population is burdened with debt, such as car and mortgage loans. 

Any extra funds would likely be used to pay off those obligations rather than invested in speculative assets. In short, the idea that China’s liquidity injection will directly impact Bitcoin prices is more “hopium” than reality.

Where does this leave us?

It’s clear that China’s liquidity stimulus is not a golden ticket for Bitcoin investors. The primary aim of this massive injection is stabilizing China’s economy. 

While a very small proportion of this liquidity might trickle into the crypto market, crypto is far from the main focus of this package.

Much will depend on how the Chinese government allocates these funds. As Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America, highlighted, the key to reviving China’s economy lies in job security and income growth—critical drivers of consumer spending that are currently lacking. 

If China can address these issues, it may lead to a broader economic recovery, which could eventually benefit multiple asset classes, including crypto.

However, uncertainty around China’s crypto environment still looms large. Despite occasional rumors about relaxing its crypto stance, the regulatory framework remains strict. 

The 2021 crypto ban is still in place, and while OTC trades and digital yuan transactions exist, crypto ownership and trading are heavily restricted. 

The government’s approach can be described as a “ban/unban cycle,” keeping investors and traders constantly on edge.

Given these uncertainties, it’s crucial to manage expectations, as the future of both China’s economy and the global crypto market remains highly unpredictable.

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Theo Crypto News

DeFi

Chinese CoinGecko alternative Feixiaohao allegedly under investigation

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China’s largest cryptocurrency market data platform, Feixiaohao, is allegedly facing legal troubles as reports claim its team has been detained by law enforcement.

While the exact details behind the detention remain unclear, a report from Chinese media shared by journalist Coin Wu suggests it could be related to compliance issues or disputes concerning Feixiaohao’s business practices.

According to the report, the Inner Mongolia police have been investigating the platform for over six months, and several key team members are allegedly in police custody. Attempts to contact the representatives of the Shanghai-based platform have also been unsuccessful as reported by multiple sources.

Feixiaohao operated as a data aggregation platform, providing real-time data on various digital assets and exchanges. It generated revenue primarily through listing fees paid by cryptocurrency projects to be featured on the platform, selling advertising space, and entering into promotional partnerships with exchanges and project teams.

However, following China’s crackdown on the cryptocurrency sector, the platform had to cease operations in mainland China, but that did not end its troubles. 

The report states that Feixiaohao was previously scrutinized for promoting shady exchanges and scam tokens, which could have led to the investigation. For instance, in November 2021, Wu highlighted that the platform had advertised the Squid Game token, based on a popular Netflix show, which eventually turned out to be a rug pull.

Currently, a team claiming to be Feixiaohao exists, but the report alleges that this team is not the original. Instead, it is believed to be a new group that acquired access to Feixiaohao’s codebase and is attempting to continue operations using the Feixiaohao brand.

Since labeling cryptocurrency transactions as illegal in September 2021, Chinese authorities have continued to crack down on the broader digital asset ecosystem. In 2023 alone, that nation has witnessed over 42,000 individuals being prosecuted for involvement in fraudulent activities involving cryptocurrencies.

Yet China has continued to witness a rise in crypto-related crimes, as previously reported by crypto.news. 

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Pháp Lý

China’s supreme court recognizes crypto in landmark AML law update

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China’s highest court and its public prosecution agency have for the first time recognized crypto transactions in their revised interpretation of the country’s anti-money laundering laws.

At a joint press conference on Aug. 19, representatives of the Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate announced several reinterpretations of China’s AML laws, set to take effect on Aug. 20.

According to the announcement, a key highlight of the new interpretations was the listing of virtual asset transactions as a method of laundering money. Per the Chinese authorities, the conversion and transfer of criminal proceeds through crypto will now be considered as concealing the source and nature of criminal proceeds and their benefits “by other means.”

Those found guilty will face a gamut of penalties, including fines starting at 10,000 Chinese yuan (around $1,400) to 200,000 Chinese yuan (around $28,000 at current exchange rates). Furthermore, more severe offenders could also face jail time ranging from five to ten years. 

The amendments to the AML laws involve 13 articles, and are meant to provide clarity for the identification of money laundering crimes and the specific circumstances where certain regulations prohibiting the “concealing and covering up” of proceeds from criminal enterprise may come into effect. Additionally, the amendments have outlined the amount of fines and prison time breaking the AML laws will attract.

The amendments are the culmination of calls made earlier in the year by Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang for the country to rewrite its AML laws to include crypto-related transactions. Additionally, authorities in the country made promises to punish people using crypto and blockchain technology to commit crimes, with the People’s Procuratorate claiming that crypto-related money laundering had become a major channel for criminals to hide their illicit wealth. 

As crypto.news reported earlier in the year, China has been experiencing an increase in crypto-related criminal activities, with the trend even becoming a major topic at the Chinese Association for the Study of Integrity and Law’s annual conference in late 2023.

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Theo Crypto News

Bitcoin

Analysts reveal bullish case for Bitcoin as global liquidity rises

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The stage looks set for Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time high, fueled by a surge in global liquidity, several macroeconomic analysts argue.

In recent weeks, the global macro financial outlook has been showing signs of a shift. Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs economists announced that they had lowered their estimations of the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 20%. 

This change came after the latest U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data were released, which suggested that the U.S. economy might be in better shape than many had feared.

The Goldman Sachs analysts added that if the upcoming August jobs report — set for release on Sept. 6 — continues this trend, the likelihood of a recession could drop back to their previously held marker of 15%. 

The possibility of such a development has sparked confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve might soon cut interest rates in September, possibly by 25 basis points. 

The potential rate cuts have already begun to impact the markets, with U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, recording their largest weekly percentage gains of the year for the week ending on Aug. 16.

Alongside this relatively positive news for the U.S. economy, global liquidity has begun to rise. Historically, increasing liquidity and easing recession fears have often been catalysts for bullish trends in the crypto space.

So, let’s take a closer look at what’s happening globally and how these macroeconomic shifts could impact Bitcoin (BTC) and the entire crypto market in the coming weeks and months ahead.

Liquidity surge across global markets

To understand where BTC might be headed, we need to delve into the mechanisms behind the current liquidity surge and how it could impact the broader markets.

The U.S. liquidity flood

In the U.S., the Treasury appears poised to inject a massive amount of liquidity into the financial system. BitMEX cofounder and well-known crypto industry figure Arthur Hayes stated in a recent Medium post that this liquidity boost could push Bitcoin past its previous all-time high of $73,700. But why now?

One possible explanation is the upcoming presidential elections. Maintaining a strong economy is crucial, and this liquidity injection could be a way to ensure favorable conditions as the election approaches. 

But how exactly is this liquidity going to be injected? The U.S. Treasury and the Fed have several powerful tools at their disposal, as Hayes lays out in his analysis.

First, there’s the overnight reverse repurchase agreement mechanism, or RRP, the balance of which currently stands at $333 billion as of Aug. 19, down significantly from a peak of over $2.5 trillion in December 2022.

Hayes explains that the RRP should be looked at as a major pool of “sterilized money” on the Fed’s balance sheet that the Treasury is evidently looking to get “into the real economy” — aka add liquidity. The RRP represents the amount of Treasury securities that the Fed has sold with an agreement to repurchase them in the future. In this process, the buying institutions — namely money market funds — earn interest on their cash overnight.

Overnight revers repurchase agreements | Source: FRED

As Hayes points out, the drop in overnight RRP over the past year indicates that money market funds are moving their cash into short-term T-bills instead of the RRP, as T-bills earn slightly more interest. As Hayes notes, T-bills “can be leveraged in the wild and will generate credit and asset price growth.” In other words, money is leaving the Fed’s balance sheet, adding liquidity to the markets.

The Treasury also recently announced plans to issue another $271 billion worth of T-bills before the end of December, Hayes noted.

But that’s not all. The Treasury could also tap into its general account, the TGA, which is essentially the government’s checking account. This account holds a staggering $750 billion, which could be unleashed into the market under the guise of avoiding a government shutdown or other fiscal needs. The TGA can be used to fund the purchase of non-T-bill debt. As Hayes explains: “If the Treasury increases the supply of T-bills and reduces the supply of other types of debt, it net adds liquidity.” 

If both of these strategies are employed, as Hayes argues, we could see anywhere between $301 billion (the RRP funds) to $1 trillion pumped into the financial system before the end of the year.

Now, why is this important for Bitcoin? Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with periods of increasing liquidity. 

When more money is sloshing around in the economy, investors tend to take on more risk. Given Bitcoin’s status as a risk asset — as well as its finite supply — Hayes argues that the increased liquidity means a bull market could be expected by the end of the year.

If the U.S. follows through with these liquidity injections, we could see a strong uptick in Bitcoin’s price as investors flock to the crypto market in search of higher returns.

China’s liquidity moves

While the U.S. is ramping up its liquidity efforts, China is also making moves — though for different reasons. 

According to a recent X thread from macroeconomic analyst TomasOnMarkets, the Chinese economy has been showing signs of strain, with recent data reportedly revealing the first contraction in bank loans in 19 years. This is a big deal because it indicates that the economic engine of China, which has been one of the world’s main growth drivers, is sputtering.

To counteract this pressure, the People’s Bank of China has been quietly increasing its liquidity injections. Over the past month alone, the PBoC has injected $97 billion into the economy, primarily through the very same reverse repo operations. 

While these injections are still relatively small compared to what we’ve seen in the past, they’re crucial in a time when the Chinese economy is at a crossroads.

But there’s more at play here. According to the analyst, the Chinese Communist Party’s senior leadership has pledged to roll out additional policy measures to support the economy. 

These measures could include more aggressive liquidity injections, which would further boost the money supply and potentially stabilize the Chinese economy. 

Over the past few weeks, the yuan has strengthened against the U.S. dollar, which could provide the PBoC with more space to maneuver and implement additional stimulus without triggering inflationary pressures.

The big picture on global liquidity

What’s particularly interesting about these liquidity moves is that they don’t seem to be happening in isolation. 

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, noted that in the past month, central banks, including the Bank of Japan, have injected substantial amounts into the global money base, with the BoJ alone adding $400 billion. 

When combined with the $97 billion from the PBoC and a broader global money supply expansion of $1.2 trillion, it appears that there is a coordinated effort to infuse the global economy with liquidity.

One factor that supports this idea of coordination is the recent decline in the U.S. dollar. The dollar’s weakness suggests that the Federal Reserve might be in tacit agreement with these liquidity measures, allowing for a more synchronized approach to boosting the global economy. 

Jamie added that if we draw comparisons to previous cycles, the potential for Bitcoin to rally is very high. In 2017, during a similar period of liquidity expansion, Bitcoin rallied 19x. In 2020, it surged 6x. 

While it’s unlikely that history will repeat itself exactly, the analyst argues that there’s a strong case to be made for a 2-3x increase in Bitcoin’s value during this cycle — provided the global money supply continues to expand, and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) drops below 101.

Where could the BTC price go?

On Aug. 5, Bitcoin and other crypto assets suffered a sharp decline due to a market crash triggered by growing recession fears and the sudden unwinding of the yen carry trade. The impact was severe, with Bitcoin plummeting to as low as $49,000 and struggling to recover. 

As of Aug. 19, Bitcoin is trading around the $59,000 mark, facing strong resistance between $60,000 and $62,000. The key question now is: where does Bitcoin go from here?

BTC 1-day price chart over the past 6 months | Source: crypto.news

According to Hayes, for Bitcoin to truly enter its next bull phase, it needs to break above $70,000, with Ethereum (ETH) surpassing $4,000. Hayes remains optimistic, stating, “the next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000.”

He believes that as Bitcoin rises, other major crypto assets will follow suit. Hayes specifically mentioned Solana (SOL), predicting it could soar 75% to reach $250, just shy of its all-time high.

Supporting this view is Francesco Madonna, CEO of BitVaulty, who also sees the current market environment as a precursor to an extraordinary bullish phase. 

Madonna highlighted a pattern he has observed over the past decade: during periods of uncertainty or immediate liquidity injections, gold typically moves first due to its safe-haven status. 

Recently, gold reached its all-time high, which Madonna interprets as a leading indicator that the bull market for risk assets, including Bitcoin, is just beginning.

Madonna points out that after gold peaks, the Nasdaq and Bitcoin typically follow, especially as liquidity stabilizes and investors start seeking higher returns in growth assets. 

Given that gold has already hit its all-time high, Madonna believes Bitcoin’s recent consolidation around $60,000 could be the calm before the storm, with $74,000 being just the “appetizer” and $250,000 potentially within reach.

As Coutts stated in a recent X post, the expansion of the money supply is a condition of a credit-based fractional reserve system like the one we have.

Without this expansion, the system risks collapse. The analyst argues that this “natural state” of perpetual growth in the money supply could be the catalyst that propels Bitcoin, alongside other growth and risk assets, into its next major bull market.

With the U.S., China, and other major economies all injecting liquidity into the system, we’re likely to see increased demand for Bitcoin as investors seek assets that can outperform traditional investments. 

If these liquidity measures continue as expected, Bitcoin could be on the verge of another key rally, with the potential to break through its previous all-time high and set new records.

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Theo Crypto News

Bitcoin

CleanSpark finalizes Bitcoin site acquisition despite concerns

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Bitcoin miner CleanSpark reported securing 75 MW in Wyoming despite previous national security concerns.

American Bitcoin mining firm CleanSpark Inc. announced the successful acquisition of a Bitcoin mining site in Wyoming, overcoming previous national security concerns raised by the White House.

The company said in a July operational report published on Aug. 2 that it had secured power agreements totaling 75 MW in the state and commenced hashing operations in Tennessee, adding 1 EH/s to its hashrate in July. CleanSpark chief executive Zach Bradford highlighted the progress made, adding that the company remains on track to achieve its target of 32 EH/s by the end of 2024.

“In Tennessee, we began hashing under our agreements with GRIID infrastructure Inc. with 1 EH/s of additional hashrate added in July. We’re continuing our trajectory of growth as we progress towards our target of 32 EH/s by the end of the year,” Bradford said.

In July, CleanSpark mined 494 Bitcoin (BTC), bringing its total produced crypto for 2024 to 4,108 BTC. During the month, the firm sold 2.54 BTC at an average price of approximately $62,070 each, ending the month with an operating hashrate of 21.2 EH/s. As of July, CleanSpark held 7,082 BTC in its holdings, the report reads.

CleanSpark caught in U.S.-China political battle

The acquisition of the Wyoming site comes despite previous national security concerns. Earlier in May, CleanSpark purchased a few mining sites from MineOne, a company with Chinese ties, located near Warren Air Force Base, which houses strategic nuclear weapon systems.

Amid the purchase, President Joe Biden issued an emergency order to halt operations at the site, saying the “presence of specialized and foreign-sourced equipment potentially capable of facilitating surveillance and espionage activities, presents a national security risk to the United States.” The order also mandated the removal of all crypto mining equipment from within a mile of the military facility.

Despite these concerns, CleanSpark proceeded with the acquisition. A spokesperson for the company acknowledged the unexpected challenges but affirmed CleanSpark’s commitment to compliance and national security.

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Theo Crypto News

Bitcoin

Chinese public telecom provider Coolpad Group allocates $13.5m to buy Bitcoin mining rigs

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Shenzhen-headquartered telecommunications equipment company Coolpad Group has announced the purchase of .5 million worth of crypto mining rigs.

Coolpad Group, a public Chinese telecom provider listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, said in a regulatory filing it has allocated over HK6 million (around .5 million) to purchase Bitcoin mining rigs as the firm now “actively pursues opportunities in web 3.0 digital currency business.”

As per the document, Coolpad plans to acquire 2,700 crypto mining rigs from Hong Kong-based JingYun Intelligent Technology Limited, with deployment slated for North America. The document doesn’t specify the manufacturer of the equipment. This investment aims to boost Coolpad’s current computing power from 873,000 TH/s to an estimated 1,504,800 TH/s.

The transaction is expected to be completed within three months, the document said.

Coolpad Group initially unveiled its focus towards crypto in early May, revealing a million investment plan aimed at acquiring shares of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies listed on Nasdaq. The company specified its interest in acquiring shares of entities such as CleanSpark (CLSK), ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), and Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF (DEFI), among others.

Highlighting the current market trends and the promising future of blockchain technology and crypto assets, Coolpad emphasized in a regulatory filing that investments in listed securities within the crypto sector present an “opportunity” to expand its digital currency business.

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Theo Crypto News

Bitcoin

Crypto deposits to Chinese precursor makers surge 600% in 2023

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Blockchain intel firm TRM Labs says China-based precursor manufacturers received over million in crypto in 2023, with around 60% of payments were made in Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency appears to be becoming a more preferred payment method for Chinese drug manufacturers as the amount of crypto deposited into wallets linked to these entities soared sixfold from 2022 to 2023, according to TRM Labs, a blockchain intel firm backed by JPMorgan Chase, Visa, Citi, and PayPal among others.

In a recent research report shared with crypto.news, analysts at TRM Labs revealed that deposits into addresses linked to Chinese drug producers more than doubled in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. In 2023, Chinese precursor networks received over million, with 11 manufacturers accounting for “over 70% of all crypto-denominated sales of drug precursors.”

“Crypto funds sent to Chinese precursor manufacturers primarily come from unhosted wallets, cryptocurrency exchanges, and payment services; the manufacturers’ wallets are most commonly hosted at exchanges.”

TRM Labs

Approximately 60% of crypto payment volume to Chinese precursor manufacturers occurred on the Bitcoin blockchain, followed by 30% on the TRON blockchain and about 6% on the Ethereum blockchain, the data shows. Despite the surge in crypto payments, Chinese manufacturers also appear to be comfortable with accepting payments in fiat currencies via PayPal, MoneyGram, Western Union, and bank transfers.

Drug sales by blockchain | Source: TRM Labs

According to TRM Labs’ study, Chinese drug precursors mainly target Canada, the Netherlands, Australia, Germany, and the U.S., as their top countries for shipping. However, there are also advertisements targeting Russia and neighboring countries for mephedrone precursors.

In April, a U.S. congressional committee reported that China subsidizes the production of illicit fentanyl precursors, fueling the U.S. opioid crisis. The committee reportedly found that China provides value-added tax rebates to companies manufacturing fentanyl analogs, precursors, and other synthetic narcotics, provided they sell them outside China.

As another blockchain intelligence firm, Elliptic, earlier noted, fentanyl is favored by drug cartels due to its lower production cost compared to heroin and its potency, which is 50 times stronger, making it the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45.

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