Concerns over token dilution because of its vast supply — and claims of market manipulation — are overshadowing Worldcoin as it tries to scan the irises of billions of people.
The controversial cryptocurrency project Worldcoin is coming under fresh fire amid allegations of insider trading and market manipulation — with one on-chain sleuth describing it as “the biggest scam token of the bull run.”
According to DeFi Squared, just 2.7% of WLD tokens are currently in circulation. And while it’s the 103rd-biggest cryptocurrency with a valuation of $648 million, its fully diluted market cap stands at a whopping $22.4 billion.
This reflects the fact that — out of a total supply of 10 billion WLD — just 288.9 million are in the marketplace right now. And as Into The Block pointed out earlier this month, that’s exceedingly bad news for current investors:
If Token A is priced at $1 but only 10% of its total supply is circulating, the market capitalization is based solely on that circulating supply. If the remaining 90% of the tokens are introduced into circulation, the overall value must increase significantly to maintain the $1 price per token. In essence, as more tokens enter circulation, the value of each token can get diluted.
In some ways, the concept underpinning Worldcoin’s tokenomics is understandable — if not a little bit creepy. Anyone around the world can register to have their irises scanned. In return, they get a digital identity as well as some free WLD.
The latest estimates from Worldcoin suggest that more than six million humans worldwide have signed up — against a global population of 8.1 billion — and that helps explain why so much crypto has gone unclaimed so far.
But DeFi Squared’s concerns relate to insider unlocks, amid allegations that the Worldcoin team is “controlling the price to still carry a $30 billion fully diluted valuation” as they begin. It’s claimed that 100 million tokens were allocated to market makers, with their post adding:
Allocating supply to market makers to create favorable price conditions is not uncommon in the industry.
The analyst went on to claim that “the majority of the ecosystem purely exists for VCs to dump” — and the timing of good news stories coincided with unlocks taking place, with the project “intentionally propping up a token price that should be lower.”
One such piece of good news related to Worldcoin developer Tools for Humanity said that 80% of the tokens held by its team members and investors will unlock over a longer timeframe — effectively tackling the issue of dilution we were talking about earlier.
DeFi Squared concluded by saying they intend to be “short WLD over the months following the start of unlocks.”
For its part, a spokesperson for the project strenuously denied the allegations leveled in this post — and said:
The Worldcoin Foundation and contributor Tools for Humanity take any allegation of insider trading, even if unfounded and unsubstantiated, seriously and would have zero tolerance for such activity if it were to occur.
Unease for regulators
A slew of countries around the world have permanently or temporarily banned Worldcoin, primarily because of data protection concerns. Regulators have claimed would-be users haven’t been given detailed information about how their biometric information would be processed, there’s no mechanism to revoke consent, and this technology could ultimately harm children. As Portugal’s Data Protection Authority said:
Minors are particularly vulnerable and are subject to special protection by the European and national legislation, because they may be less aware of the risks, consequences and guarantees of the processing of their personal data and their rights.
Spearheaded by Sam Altman, who also founded OpenAI, Worldcoin has repeatedly missed targets when it comes to user acquisition — especially considering it once had the goal of registering one billion people by 2023. It doesn’t help that consumers in major economies — China, India, and the U.S. — are forbidden from accessing orbs and, in some cases, even owning WLD tokens.
It’s difficult to know at this stage whether these setbacks for Worldcoin will be temporary, and whether the technology will end up prevailing as the need for digital identities becomes clearer.
But in the meantime, regulators are slamming the brakes hard because they’re concerned about what the future could look like.
Ripple will allocate $10 million into tokenized U.S. Treasury bills that Asia’s largest tokenization platform OpenEden plans to issue on the XRP Ledger.
According to a Thursday press release, this will be the first time the short-term U.S. government debt, backed by U.S. Treasuries and collateralized reserve repurchases, will be available on the XRP Ledger to XRP (XRP) holders.
Ripple to unveil fund to invest in tokenized assets
Ripple stated in the press release that its investment in OpenEden’s tokenized assets will be through a newly created fund. Although the company has not disclosed specific details about the fund, it did note that $10 million from this fund will be invested in OpenEden’s TBILL tokens.
This investment is part of a larger strategy Ripple is pursuing related to tokenized T-bills and the broader Real-World Assets (RWA) market.
“OpenEden’s tokenized US Treasury bills represent another exciting example of how all types of real-world assets are being tokenized to drive utility and new opportunities,” Markus Infanger, senior vice president at RippleX, said.
The introduction of T-bills on the XRP Ledger strengthens the growing RWA tokenization market, the RippleX senior VP noted.
Mint TBILL with stablecoins
OpenEden, which holds over $75 million in total value locked for its U.S. T-bills, announced that users will be able to mint TBILLs using stablecoins. This will include Ripple USD, a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin that Ripple plans to launch later this year.
Currently, the top stablecoins in the market are Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC.
Real-world assets market
Tokenization is an expanding market as more financial securities and other real-world assets are brought on-chain. The benefits of blockchain technology have attracted significant players, including BlackRock, who have brought millions of dollars’ worth of traditional assets on-chain.
While Ripple is poised to welcome its first tokenized U.S T-bills, the company has seen traction in the RWA space with recent developments.
According to Team Ripple, XRP Ledger’s support for automated market makers, lending protocols, native oracles, and decentralized identifiers are some of the features that make the open-source blockchain crucial to the RWA and DeFi markets.
Hong Kong’s largest online broker, Futu Securities International, has launched crypto trading, targeting retail investors with enticing rewards such as shares in Alibaba and Nvidia.
Futu Securities International is the first online broker in Hong Kong to offer crypto trading services to retail investors, reinforcing Hong Kong’s ambitions to become a global crypto hub.
According to a South China Morning Post report, Futu now allows its clients to trade Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) directly on its platform using either Hong Kong or U.S. dollars. This move follows Futu’s recent securities license upgrade from the Securities and Futures Commission, which permits it to provide crypto-related services to both professional and retail clients.
Crypto competition intensifies in Hong Kong
As part of its promotional strategy, Futu is offering incentives to attract retail investors. Customers engaging in crypto trading on the platform can receive shares in Alibaba or Nvidia. Additionally, the company is eliminating commission fees on crypto transactions, making the offer even more appealing to potential users.
Although Futu isn’t the first to launch crypto trading in Hong Kong, it sets itself apart by targeting retail investors. Tiger Brokers, its rival, also began offering crypto trading services in May but limited them to professional clients only.
Để thể hiện sự tự tin, các holder Bitcoin lớn thường rất giỏi trong việc xác định thời điểm biến động của thị trường đã tăng số coin dự trữ vào tháng 7 với tốc độ nhanh nhất trong nhiều năm, tận dụng biến động giá hai chiều.
Theo dữ liệu của công ty phân tích blockchain IntoTheBlock và TradingView, những người nắm giữ lớn (địa chỉ sở hữu ít nhất 0,1% nguồn cung BTC lưu hành) đã mua hơn 84.000 BTC, trị giá 5,4 tỷ đô la theo giá thị trường hiện tại. Đây là mức tăng trong một tháng lớn nhất tính theo BTC kể từ tháng 10/2014.
Động thái tích lũy được cho là do săn lùng lợi nhuận trong thời gian đầu tháng 7 khi giá trượt dưới 55.000 đô la và tạm dừng một thời gian ngắn trong quá trình phục hồi sau đó lên 69.000 đô la. Tuy nhiên, giá BTC đã kết thúc tháng 7 với mức tăng ít ỏi 3%.
Các holder lớn sử dụng biện pháp tích lũy chiến lược, tận dụng thời điểm giá giảm trong tháng 7 | Nguồn: IntoTheBlock, TradingView
Tích lũy chiến lược có thể cho thấy niềm tin mạnh mẽ rằng giai đoạn hợp nhất kéo dài từ 50.000 đến 70.000 đô la cuối cùng sẽ kết thúc bằng breakout tăng giá, kéo dài đợt phục hồi ban đầu từ 16.000 đô la.
Điều này cho thấy các nhà phân tích lạc quan về triển vọng giá của vua tiền điện tử.
“Cắt giảm lãi suất vào tháng 9 mang lại cảm giác lạc quan và nói chung có thể tăng thanh khoản trên thị trường, điều này sẽ tích cực đối với Bitcoin và các token khác vì nhà đầu tư tìm kiếm lợi nhuận cao hơn bên ngoài tài sản truyền thống. Từ đó, giúp hình thành áp lực tăng giá cho Bitcoin và dòng vào ETF tăng lên khi các nhà đầu tư tìm cách tận dụng môi trường thuận lợi hơn cho tài sản rủi ro”, Jag Kooner – Giám đốc phái sinh tại Bitfinex cho biết trong một email.
Hôm thứ 4, Chủ tịch Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed) Jerome Powell cho biết lãi suất có thể được cắt giảm sớm nhất vào tháng 9, nhấn mạnh dữ liệu kinh tế cần hỗ trợ cho khả năng nới lỏng thanh khoản mới. Ngân hàng trung ương vẫn giữ lãi suất chuẩn ổn định trong khoảng 5,25% -5,5%, duy trì hiện trạng như mong đợi.
“Fed đang nỗ lực để hạ cánh mềm. Nếu dữ liệu cho phép họ cắt giảm và chắc chắn đang đi theo hướng đó so với dự báo của họ, chúng tôi nghĩ họ sẽ nắm bắt cơ hội. Chúng tôi kỳ vọng các quan chức sẽ bắt đầu hành động chính sách tiền tệ từ “hạn chế” sang “ít hơn một chút” từ tháng 9 với các đợt cắt giảm bổ sung vào tháng 11 và tháng 12″, ING ghi nhận trong một lưu ý hàng ngày gửi khách hàng.
Tâm lý lạc quan cũng bắt nguồn từ dòng vốn mới thông qua stablecoin hoặc tài sản kỹ thuật số với giá trị gắn với tài sản tham chiếu bên ngoài như đô la Mỹ.
Theo CCData, tổng vốn hóa thị trường của stablecoin tăng 2,11% lên 164 tỷ đô la trong tháng 7, cao nhất kể từ tháng 4/2022.
“Đây là mức tăng vốn hóa thị trường hàng tháng cao nhất của stablecoin kể từ tháng 4, cho thấy dòng vốn mới đổ vào thị trường như được phản ánh bởi hành động giá tích cực của tài sản kỹ thuật số trong tháng 7”, CCData cho biết trong một báo cáo.
Theo Kooner, tác động giảm dần của tin tức tiêu cực đang mang lại sự yên tâm cho phe bò.
“Có rất nhiều niềm tin vào thị trường ở thời điểm hiện tại, đặc biệt là ngay cả những tin tức tiêu cực tiềm ẩn như Mt. Gox phân phối, Chính phủ Đức bán ra và rất nhiều chuyển động on-chain quan trọng gần đây đều không thể đẩy giá lao dốc”.
Despite being a market leader in the oracle space, Chainlink (LINK) is showing signs of stagnation compared to newer, more dynamic competitors like Pyth Network (PYTH). Analyzing their market responsiveness and correlation with Bitcoin reveals a stark contrast in their potential to reach previous all-time highs. This article explores why LINK may struggle to achieve its ATH again and how Pyth’s market dynamics position it for significant growth.
Table of Contents
Introduction to oracle networks
Blockchains are closed systems that only know what is recorded on their own chain, but many applications require data from the “outside world.” Oracles fill this gap by bringing off-chain information onto the blockchain, allowing smart contracts to interact with real events and market changes.
Without oracles, smart contracts would be limited to using only on-chain data, severely restricting their practical applications. By providing access to external data, oracles significantly expand the capabilities of blockchain technology. They make possible complex applications like crypto-backed loans that adjust to market prices or insurance policies with automated payouts based on weather events.
However, the main use case for oracles lies in providing price feeds. Without price feeds, smart contracts would lack real-time asset prices, leading to inaccurate or outdated data that drives decisions. This would make trading, lending, and borrowing unreliable, as transactions and contract executions wouldn’t reflect actual market conditions, destabilizing the entire ecosystem.
What are PYTH and Chainlink
Before exploring how PYTH’s price action might unfold in 2025, it’s important to understand what PYTH is and how it compares to its main competitor, Chainlink.
PYTH is a decentralized oracle network that provides high-frequency, low-latency financial data, particularly for the DeFi sector. It sources real-time data directly from top financial institutions and trading firms, making it highly reliable and accurate. Additionally, PYTH’s data is fully verifiable on-chain.
Chainlink, on the other hand, is a more established and versatile oracle network that has been in the market longer and serves a broader range of industries. While it also provides price feeds, Chainlink’s strength lies in its ability to integrate various types of off-chain data into smart contracts, making it applicable to sectors such as insurance, supply chain management, and gaming. Unlike PYTH, which focuses on speed and financial data accuracy, Chainlink offers a more generalized service.
Market position and supply dynamics
Supply overview
To evaluate Pyth Network’s future price, one must compare its position to that of Chainlink, which currently leads the oracle industry. While some believe PYTH could surpass Chainlink soon, maintaining a conservative approach offers a more realistic perspective.
Regarding PYTH’s supply, it’s also important to focus on the supply during the peak of the 2025 bull market rather than on its unlock schedule. The next unlock is set for mid-2025, likely after the bull market has peaked. As of July 2024, PYTH has a circulating supply of 3,624,988,892 tokens, and this amount will remain unchanged until May 2025.
Source: Token Unlocks
Chainlink, in contrast, has a dynamic supply due to the variable staking rewards rate, which was 4.32% as of July 31, 2024. However, the actual inflation rate tells a different story. Since the last unlock in September 2023, the LINK circulating supply increased from 556,850,000 to 608,099,970 in just ten months, representing a 9.2% inflation rate.
By projecting this trend forward, the expected Chainlink supply by May 2025, just before PYTH’s next unlock, would reach approximately 664,045,167 LINK.
Historical price and supply correlation
An increasing supply can dilute the value per token due to inflation. For PYTH, this isn’t a concern until the next unlock. However, it is important to note that when the unlock occurs in May 2025, PYTH will release 2.125 billion PYTH, diluting the current supply by over 58%.
But as mentioned earlier, Chainlink’s supply is inflationary. Since its last all-time high of $52.88 on May 10, 2021, the circulating supply has increased by more than 43%. At that time, its market cap peaked at $22.48 billion. To reach that same market cap with the projected 2025 supply, Chainlink would need to achieve a price of approximately $33.85 per token.
Year
Supply
Market Cap
Price at ATH Market Cap
2021
425,009,554 LINK
$ 22.48B
$ 52.88
2025
664,045,167 LINK
$ 22.48B
$ 33.85
Market cap analysis
At the start of 2024, PYTH represented a modest portion of Chainlink’s market cap. On January 1, 2024, PYTH’s market cap stood at $535 million, capturing only 6% of Chainlink’s market cap, which was $8.826 billion. However, this ratio began to shift significantly as the year progressed.
By March 2024, PYTH’s market cap had surged to $1.73 billion, representing 14.83% of Chainlink’s $11.64 billion market cap. Despite market fluctuations and a general cooling down, PYTH maintained its higher share of Chainlink’s market cap. As of July 31, 2024, PYTH’s market cap is $1.28 billion, or 16.37% of Chainlink’s $7.8 billion.
The trend suggests that PYTH is steadily gaining ground on Chainlink, which could have significant implications for its future positioning within the oracle market. This data will become even more relevant as the analysis delves deeper into PYTH’s future price action and market dynamics.
Adoption and performance
dApps
Chainlink dominates the oracle market. It secures 400 out of 787 dApps across the top 10 oracle networks, representing over 50% market share. In contrast, PYTH controls 205 dApps, accounting for about 26% of the market. Despite its later entry, PYTH has rapidly gained market share since launching its mainnet in August 2021. Chainlink, however, entered the market in 2019, giving it a two-year advantage. Given PYTH’s strong growth trajectory, it will likely continue gaining market share and expanding its industry presence.
Total Value Secured
Total Value Secured (TVS) represents the total amount of assets or financial value that an oracle network safeguards through its data feeds. This metric serves as an important benchmark in the comparison of different oracle networks because it reflects the trust and reliance that decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts place on the network. A higher TVS indicates broader adoption and greater confidence in the oracle’s ability to provide accurate and secure data.
As of July 2024, Chainlink leads the oracle market with $24.91 billion in total value secured. However, this figure is a significant decline from its peak of $60.5 billion in November 2021. The stagnation in Chainlink’s TVS since then suggests that its growth has slowed despite its established position in the market.
While the difference between Chainlink and Pyth remains substantial—nearly a 5x gap—Pyth’s rapid growth raises questions about whether it could eventually surpass Chainlink in securing value. Nevertheless, Chainlink remains the dominant player in the oracle space, and given its extensive adoption and established infrastructure, it is likely to retain its leadership position through 2025.
Price feeds and supported blockchain networks
While Chainlink has steadily built its network over five years, now supporting 132 price feeds across 19 blockchains, PYTH has taken a more aggressive growth approach.
To put it simply, it means PYTH has effectively doubled its coverage each year since its inception. In doing so, it has quickly surpassed Chainlink in both the number of price feeds and the breadth of blockchain support.
Latency
PYTH claims a latency of 400 milliseconds, while Chainlink describes its speed as sub-second without specifying the exact timing. However, data from the Chaos Labs’ oracle dashboard shows a different picture. Over the last 30 days, Chainlink’s average latency was 1,402 milliseconds, whereas PYTH’s average latency was 2,348 milliseconds, making PYTH slower in practice.
Another important metric is price deviation from the benchmark. For the same period, Chainlink’s average deviation was 0.034%, while PYTH’s was slightly higher at 0.0335%.
This suggests that, despite PYTH’s position on Solana offering theoretical speed advantages, Chainlink’s longer presence in the market has allowed it to optimize performance and maintain a strong position as a reliable oracle provider.
Main Takeaways: PYTH vs. Chainlink
Given the analysis so far, we can highlight several key points:
PYTH’s supply will remain static at 3,624,988,892 tokens until May 2025, which is likely after the bull market peak.
Chainlink’s supply is inflationary, with a projected supply of 664,045,167 LINK by May 2025.
The PYTH/LINK market cap has grown from 6% to 16.37% between January and July 2024.
Chainlink dominates in secured dApps (50% market share) and Total Value Secured ($24.91 billion) and maintains better performance in latency (1,402ms vs. PYTH’s 2,348ms) and price deviation. On the other hand, PYTH surpasses Chainlink in price feeds (551 vs. 132) and supported blockchains (70 vs. 19).
A “flippening” is unlikely by 2025.
Market Behavior and Price Movements
Relying solely on historical performance or fractals does not reliably predict asset price movements. However, analyzing past behavior can provide insights into how assets respond during market fluctuations.
To understand PYTH and Chainlink’s responsiveness to market conditions, we conducted a Pearson correlation coefficient analysis between PYTH-BTC and LINK-BTC. We chose BTC as a benchmark because crypto markets often move in tandem with Bitcoin, which frequently acts as the main catalyst for market movements.
The Pearson correlation coefficient measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. The coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, where -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, 0 signifies no correlation, and 1 represents a perfect positive correlation.
Results revealed that PYTH has a correlation of 0.4519 with BTC, which indicates a moderate positive relationship. In other words, PYTH tends to move in line with Bitcoin and reacts to broader market trends.
The correlation between LINK and BTC was 0.2235, which shows a relatively weak relationship. LINK does not consistently follow BTC’s movements and behaves more independently of the overall market.
This correlation pattern, combined with the consistent circulating supply dilution, suggests Chainlink is unlikely to reach its previous all-time high of $52.88. While assets like BTC and PYTH have reached new all-time highs, and others like ETH and SOL have come within 30% of their previous peaks, assets not in this range may be considered underperforming in the current market.
Some may argue that Chainlink is prospering and holding leading positions, which is true for the project itself. However, from an investment perspective, the LINK token appears less attractive than other assets in the market.
PYTH Price Prediction: Can PYTH Reach $2?
Considering the arguments that suggest LINK may not reach its previous all-time high in the 2025 bull market and noting its March 2024 peak of $22.83, we can project bear, base, and bull case scenarios for Chainlink’s price at $30, $40, and $50 respectively.
With a projected LINK supply of 664,045,167, these price targets would result in market capitalizations of:
Bear
Base
Bull
LINK Price
$ 30
$ 40
$ 50
Market Cap
$ 19,921,355,010
$ 26,561,806,680
$ 33,202,258,350
Currently, PYTH’s market cap represents 16.37% of LINK’s. If this ratio remains constant, PYTH’s price would be:
Bear
Base
Bull
PYTH Price
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
Market Cap
$ 3,261,125,815
$ 4,348,167,753
$ 5,435,209,691
However, we anticipate PYTH’s market dominance to increase, potentially representing 30-50% of LINK’s market cap. Using these projections:
Bear case (16.37% share): $0.9 to $1.5
Base case (30% share): $1.65 to $2.75
Bull case (50% share): $2.75 to $4.58
The base case scenario of a 30% market cap share appears most likely, suggesting a price target of approximately $2 for PYTH in 2025.
Hệ sinh thái tài chính phi tập trung (DeFi) của Solana đã tăng tốc trong tháng qua. Vào ngày 28 tháng 7, tổng giá trị bị khóa (TVL) trên chain đã vượt qua 10 tỷ đô la lần đầu tiên kể từ tháng 12 năm 2021. Theo Tristan Frizza, nhà sáng lập Zeta Markets, động thái này, cùng với một số diễn biến sắp tới, có thể thúc đẩy Solana và token gốc SOL tiến xa hơn nữa vào tháng 8.
“Trong chu kỳ tiền điện tử hiện tại, SOL đã chứng kiến một đợt tăng giá đáng kinh ngạc, phục hồi từ mức thấp nhất là 8 đô la sau sự sụp đổ của FTX vào năm ngoái. Nhiều người hiện coi SOL là loại tiền điện tử blue-chip thứ ba sau BTC và ETH, với tiềm năng tăng giá cao hơn”, Frizza nhấn mạnh.
Các sàn giao dịch phi tập trung dựa trên Solana đã vượt qua Ethereum lần đầu tiên về khối lượng giao dịch hàng tháng. Đáng chú ý, khối lượng phái sinh onchain của Solana cho thấy mức tăng trưởng hàng tháng đáng kể nhất trong số các blockchain lớn nhất theo TVL, tăng vọt 105%.
Khối lượng giao dịch DEX. Nguồn: Defillama
Do đó, hoạt động DeFi kết hợp với quan hệ đối tác với các công ty như Stripe, Shopify và Circle, cùng việc nộp hồ sơ quỹ Solana ETF đầu tiên tại Hoa Kỳ có thể mang lại động lực thúc đẩy đáng kể cho SOL.
“Đặc biệt, sự ra mắt gần đây của Ethereum ETF có thể tạo ra sự kiện ‘mua tin đồn, bán sự thật’, có khả năng thúc đẩy sự mong đợi ngày càng tăng đối với Solana ETF”.
Ngoài ra, SEC đã đồng ý xem xét lại tình trạng chứng khoán mà cơ quan đã gắn cho một số loại tiền điện tử trong vụ kiện chống lại Binance, trong đó bao gồm SOL. Do đó, điều này có thể làm tăng nhu cầu đối với SOL trong số các nhà đầu tư không thích rủi ro, Frizza nói thêm.
Cuối cùng, Frizza chỉ ra rằng hội nghị Breakpoint diễn ra vào tháng 9 và các nhà đầu tư có thể mua SOL vào tháng 8 để đầu cơ vào khả năng tăng giá trong sự kiện này. Breakpoint là sự kiện thường niên lớn nhất của hệ sinh thái Solana và nhiều diễn biến khác nhau có thể thúc đẩy giá SOL.
If there’s one thing that is becoming clear, it’s that hyper-financialization is inevitable, and our best chance to navigate it successfully is through Bitcoin (BTC). This decentralized cryptocurrency, which is known for its fixed supply and robust security, offers a unique solution to the upcoming problem of wealth inequality and concentration of power. By adopting Bitcoin, we can create a more transparent and resilient financial future, or we risk losing our financial sovereignty to a handful of corporations.
The hyper-financialization of the world has already begun with the financial sector becoming a relatively bigger part of the economy, growing in size and importance. Financial structures are now fast creeping up in other sectors as well.
For instance, in 2023, Americans spent more than $100 billion on state-run lotteries, according to The Economist, which reported poorer citizens spent a staggering amount on tickets. Additionally, the online sports betting market, valued at over $100 billion, is projected to generate almost $46 billion in revenue this year, with a 3.9% user penetration.
Moreover, Robinhood, a commission-free investing platform popular among retail, has seen its number of funded customers rise to 23.9 million and assets under custody surge to $129.6 billion, yet another prime example of the hyper-financialization trend. It was during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 that Robinhood started gaining traction, and the trend of hyper-financialization was exacerbated. For people stuck in their homes, the online world became their primary means of entertainment and social interaction.
Then, the governments injected billions of dollars into the market, providing people with an incentive to bet their money on markets. The subsequent surge in inflation and the weak economy around the world have now further intensified this trend as people bear the burden of survival.
It has led to a heightened proliferation of financial structures in different spheres of life, which means that both builders and consumers are taking this route.
The crypto industry
As we can see in crypto, it has grown from less than $150 billion in March 2020 to now worth $2.7 trillion. This explosive growth is not only turbocharging the hyper financialization trend for finance with yield farming, restaking, points, rewards, and meme coins but also for art via NFTs, social dynamics through social tokens and platforms like Friendtech, gaming with play-to-earn concepts, and physical assets via tokenization.
Then, there are prediction markets that allow people to bet on all kinds of events. These range from the US 2024 Presidential election outcome to whether Bitcoin will hit $100k by year-end, if Drake’s verse in “Wah Gwan Delilah” is AI, what will be ‘Bad Boys: Ride or Die’ Opening Weekend Box Office, or if Fed will raise rates this year?
This growing trend of hyper-financialization is detrimental to society, given that it broadens the already widening wealth gap by increasing wealth concentration and contributing to economic inequality. Not to mention, this will lead to even bigger asset bubbles, short-term focus over long-term approach, and more interest in speculative investments.
Here, crypto can help provide a better way to approach hyper-financialization. After all, middlemen are where the wealth lies, and the use of blockchain technology removes this third party from the equation, bringing trustlessness, traceability, and immutability to the market. Blockchain actually allows the hyper-financialization to be fair and transparent.
Before crypto, not everyone was allowed to participate in markets. But through disintermediation and permissionlessness, crypto has made markets more efficient and accessible. Not to mention, one gets total control over their data, mitigating the risk of data manipulation and privacy invasion.
A better way to deal with hyper-financialization
This is where Bitcoin provides the perfect solution. This decentralized peer-to-peer network enables financial inclusion and resistance to censorship, which is critically important in today’s world, where organizations and governments are encroaching on people’s rights. This network has a decade-and-a-half-long history behind it, offering a robust and secure platform for people to achieve financial sovereignty.
The trillion-dollar asset class further serves as a hedge against inflation, allowing holders to preserve their wealth over time. Unlike fiat currencies, which are devalued through policies, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralization safeguard it from such pressures, making it the perfect asset to be owned in a world where everyone is competing to extract value.
The largest crypto network has now also been seeing experimentation as both developers and investors use it as a base to build a truly decentralized future of finance and value.
For so long, Bitcoin has been a low-activity blockchain, its key role being a store of value. While Bitcoin has been playing a passive role in the blockchain world all these years, it finally changed with the Taproot upgrade that brought NFTs into the BTC realm. Then there has been an increasing interest in tokenization, that too from institutions like Blackrock.
This focus on expanding Bitcoin’s utility has sparked a wave of innovation, and the day is not far when BTC might dethrone Ethereum to become the go-to blockchain for decentralized finance. Several aspects, including Bitcoin’s robust security framework, widespread recognition, and institutional interest, are positioning Bitcoin at the forefront of defi innovation.
So, with these developments, Bitcoin is now evolving to start its new era of utility and innovation after fulfilling its original vision of being a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.
As everything turns into a financial asset and becomes tradable, attention, which is a scarce resource, will become even more critical. Bitcoin has already solidified its position in the attention economy, and the newfound interest in regulatory complaints and the widely adopted BTC to drive productivity will see it lead the future of digital economies. This points to a world where crypto is leading the charge for hyper-financialization, with BTC in the driver’s seat.
So, to conclude, the resilient Bitcoin network that survived the test of time spectacularly may have started as a way to facilitate the transparent flow of monetary value, but today, it has become a foundation of hope to not just protect yourself from a future that is going to be super fixated on financialization aspect but to take advantage of it to build wealth and thrive.
Tỷ lệ cược của Kamala Harris tăng vọt lên 45% trên Polymarket sau khi Donald Trump xuất hiện tại hội thảo của Hiệp hội Nhà báo Da đen Quốc gia (NABJ). Polymarket, nền tảng cá cược tiền điện tử nổi tiếng, đã chứng kiến lượng tiền cược đổ vào đáng kể do cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Hoa Kỳ đầy biến động. Theo Bloomberg, nền tảng này đã thêm MoonPay để xử lý khối lượng cược tăng lên và mở đường vào tiền điện tử.
Tỷ lệ cược cho cuộc bầu cử Hoa Kỳ năm 2024. Nguồn: Polymarket
Giá trị cược bầu cử Hoa Kỳ trên Polymarket đã đạt 467 triệu đô la, tăng từ 364 triệu đô la vào tuần trước, phản ánh sự quan tâm ngày càng tăng đối với cuộc đua Trump so với Harris. Nền tảng này cho phép người dùng đặt cược vào nhiều kết quả khác nhau, bao gồm cả cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Hoa Kỳ và đã thu hút được sự chú ý đáng kể gần đây do Harris có khả năng được đề cử của đảng Dân chủ và một nỗ lực ám sát Trump. Bất chấp những thành quả gần đây của Harris, những người đặt cược quy mô lớn trên Polymarket vẫn ủng hộ Trump áp đảo, người vẫn giữ được vị trí dẫn đầu đáng kể với 55% khả năng giành chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử.
Tuy nhiên, lợi thế dẫn trước của Trump đã bị cắt giảm đáng kể từ 60% trong 24 giờ qua và mức cao nhất là 72% vào ngày 16 tháng 7. Tương tự, cơ hội của Harris chỉ mở ở mức 37% vào ngày 31 tháng 7 trước khi tăng lên 43% tính đến thời điểm báo chí đưa tin, cơ hội cao nhất của bà kể từ khi tham gia cuộc đua. Lần cuối cùng đảng Dân chủ đạt tỷ lệ cao như vậy trên Polymarket là ngày 16 tháng 5, khi Trump chấp nhận cuộc tranh luận với Joe Biden, dẫn đến sự gia tăng các khoản cược có lợi cho Trump.
Biểu đồ tỷ lệ cược của Polymarket cho cuộc bầu cử Hoa Kỳ năm 2024. Nguồn: Polymarket
Ngoài thị trường dự đoán tiền điện tử, chiến dịch của Harris cũng được củng cố bởi các cuộc thăm dò gần đây cho thấy bà đang giành được lợi thế trước Trump ở các tiểu bang dao động quan trọng. Một cuộc thăm dò của Bloomberg/Morning Consult cho thấy Harris đang dẫn trước Trump 53%-42% ở Michigan, trong khi các cuộc thăm dò khác cho thấy bà đang dẫn trước hoặc ngang bằng với Trump ở các tiểu bang như Wisconsin, Arizona và Nevada. Dữ liệu thăm dò này có thể đã góp phần vào sự gia tăng tỷ lệ cược của Harris trên các nền tảng như Polymarket, nơi mùa bầu cử năng động và cạnh tranh gay gắt được phản ánh trong các bản đồ tương tác và phân tích thị trường theo xu hướng của nền tảng.
Mặt khác, màn trình diễn và các phát ngôn gần đây của Trump có thể đang ảnh hưởng đến vị thế của ông. Những nhận xét của ông về Harris và các tuyên bố về việc được mời tham gia dưới cái cớ giả mạo có thể thực sự gây ra tranh cãi và ảnh hưởng đến hình ảnh công chúng của ông.
Nhà sáng lập SkyBridge Capital và cựu thư ký báo chí của Trump, Anthony Scaramucci, cảm thấy màn trình diễn của Trump sẽ dẫn đến sự sụt giảm trong số phiếu thăm dò:
“Chưa kết thúc đâu. Trump có thể rời khỏi cuộc đua. Hãy xem số phiếu thăm dò của ông ấy giảm mạnh và xem điều gì sẽ xảy ra.”
Giá Bitcoin đã giảm xuống 63.700 đô la sau bài phát biểu của Trump nhưng sau đó phục hồi lên mức 64.500 đô la tính đến thời điểm báo chí sau cuộc họp FOMC ngày hôm qua và tỷ lệ cược của Trump giảm. Trump được coi là ứng cử viên thân thiện hơn với Bitcoin và tỷ lệ cược giành chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tổng thống của ông dường như phù hợp với giá Bitcoin hiện tại.
Notcoin, the viral Telegram tap-to-earn platform, is changing its strategy as demand for its platform and token retreats.
Notcoin (NOT) token price has seen a significant decline since June, when it peaked at $0.030. It has dropped by over 57% from its all-time high, bringing its market cap from over $2.68 billion to $1.28 billion.
Notcoin moves to Web3 as tap-to-earn loses momentum
Notcoin’s decline mirrors the performance of other altcoins that have pulled back in recent weeks. EOS (EOS) token has dropped by almost 40% from its highest point in June, while Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) has fallen by 35% in the same period.
This performance reflects the risks that other tap-to-earn platforms like Hamster Kombat and TapSwap may face when they launch their airdrops. Hyped projects often lose momentum and users after a while. For example, move-to-earn tokens like StepN’s (GMT) and Sweatcoin’s (SWEAT) have all dropped from their all-time high.
Popular gaming platforms like Decentraland and Axie Infinity, which were once very popular, have also struggled to regain growth, according to Dappradar. Their market caps have dropped from $8.5 billion in 2021 to $580 million and from $9.7 billion to $845 million, respectively.
Notcoin is now betting on Web3 and Non-Fungible Token (NFT) gaming to reinvigorate growth. The developers are working on a story-driven game in partnership with Lost Dogs and Getgems, a leading TON-based NFT marketplace.
Users will play the game and earn the NOT token and another new game-based token, which they can convert into fiat currencies.
Notcoin will likely face three key challenges with this strategy. First, as other gaming networks like Axie Infinity and Gala Games have shown, maintaining high user engagement for an extended period is difficult, especially when the ecosystem’s token is not performing well.
Second, Notcoin may struggle to transition its active tap-to-earn players to the new story-driven game. Finally, there are signs that the NFT industry is struggling, as volume has continued falling.
Meanwhile, technical analysis indicates that the NOT price could bounce back in the near term. On the 4 hour chart, the token has formed a falling wedge chart pattern.
This wedge is nearing the confluence zone, which could trigger more upside. If this happens, the token could rebound to $0.0175, its highest point in July, which is about 37% above its Thursday levels.
Such a rebound would be triggered by the broader performance of the crypto industry, especially if Bitcoin rebounds above $70,000.
