Lưu trữ cho từ khóa: Polymarket

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Bitcoin forms a golden cross, analysts predict parabolic moves ahead

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Bitcoin price continued its strong rebound as it rose for three consecutive days, reaching its highest level since July 29.

Bitcoin (BTC), the original cryptocurrency and largest crypto by market cap, retested the psychological level of $68,000, meaning it has jumped by almost 40% from its lowest level in August.

There are rising odds that Bitcoin will continue climbing. For one, the crypto fear and greed index moved from the greed zone of 37 last week to 58. BTC and other cryptocurrencies often rally when there is a sense of greed in the market.

Bitcoin price has also formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages have made a bullish crossover.

The last time this crossover happened was on Oct. 23 last year, and the coin surged by 120% to its all-time high of $73,800 in March.

The WMA is seen as a better type of moving average than the simple and exponential moving averages because it smooths data by giving more weight to recent movements.

Bitcoin has also formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern and flipped the important resistance point at $66,561, its highest swing on Sept. 27. It also crossed the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Why Bitcoin price is rising

Bitcoin is rallying for two main reasons. First, the odds of Donald Trump winning the election have risen, with Polymarket placing his probability at 60%. 

Trump is seen as a favorable candidate for the crypto industry because of his strong endorsement of the sector. He is a crypto owner with a portfolio worth over $6 million, according to Arkham. He has also launched World Liberty Financial, a crypto project.

At the same time, studies show that his policies of tax cuts, defense spending, and tariffs could lead to a $7.5 trillion deficit in a decade. This is notable since the U.S. public debt has jumped to over $35.5 trillion. Investors see Bitcoin as a better alternative to the U.S. dollar because it has a supply cap of 21 million coins.

Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching a record high rose to 70%.

Bitcoin odds of reaching all-time high | Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin. Peter Brandt, a popular trader with over 740,000 followers, predicted that the coin has more upside, with his initial target being $73,800, its all-time high.

Other analysts have also delivered positive Bitcoin forecasts. Miles Deutscher, predicted that the next Bitcoin breakout will be much bigger than most expect, followed by fear of missing out. Michael van de Poppe sees more upside in the long term as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.

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Bitcoin

LEN, SASHA, and ODIN: Len Sassaman-inspired meme coins pop up in the market before Satoshi identity reveal

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In the lead-up to an HBO documentary’s Bitcoin founder reveal, memecoins inspired by Len Sassaman and his cats, Sasha and Odin, have started appearing on Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin networks.

After dominating the Polymarket betting pool on Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto‘s identity, Len Sassaman has gained popularity in crypto circles as many are hailing the deceased-cryptographer as the most likely candidate that will be unveiled in the HBO Documentary titled “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”.

The documentary, set to premiere on Oct. 8, promises to reveal the the true identity behind the pseudonym that introduced Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.

In the days leading up to the reveal, various memecoins have been created in honor of Len Sassaman and his cats. LEN, SASHA and Odin are just some of the memecoins that have sprouted in the past week thanks to Sassaman’s popularity amongst Polymarket bettors.

Sasha Cat’s token SASHA, a Solana memecoin modeled after Sassaman’s orange cat Sasha, has risen above 70% in the past day according to data from CoinMarketCap. Since its launch, SASHA has garnered has a market cap of $1.2 million.

Meanwhile, the memecoin named after Sassaman’s other cat, Odin, has been rising above 15% in the past day on GeckoTerminal. Though not as popular as SASHA, Odin has racked up a market cap of $236.000 in the two days its been on the market. The Odin memecoin is also powered by Solana.

Aside from the cryptographer’s cats, several memecoins were also created for Len Sassaman with the ticker LEN. LEN tokens on Solana and Ethereum were created by traders in the past week, running to a market capitalization of a few million before paring gains.

Another LEN token issued over four months ago, claiming to be the first to be issued on Solana, saw a price boost last week and has a market cap of over $1.6 million as of Monday.

Polymarket betting market for Satoshi Nakamoto identity reveal — Oct. 7, 2024 | Source: Polymarket

On the day before the HBO Documentary is set to premiere, Sassaman’s odds are nearly at 40% based on the Polymarket “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?” market. His rankings are closely followed by bettors who believe that Satoshi is a group of people or someone entirely off the board, with 38% odds.

The figure with second largest odds is Adam Back, CEO of Blockshare, with more than 7%. He will also make an appearance in the HBO documentary based on the trailer.

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Bitcoin

Who is Len Sassaman? The man leading Polymarket’s Bitcoin founder market

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As HBO’s documentary promises to reveal Bitcoin’s creator, bettors on Polymarket speculate if Len Sassaman is the real Satoshi Nakamoto.

Len Sassaman, a name not widely known outside of cryptography or cryptocurrency circles, has emerged as a key figure in the ongoing speculation around the true identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. 

With an upcoming HBO documentary teasing a revelation, bettors on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, are heavily wagering that Sassaman could be behind the pseudonym that introduced Bitcoin (BTC) to the world.

Polymarket allows users to place bets on various events, and speculation around Bitcoin’s founder is currently one of the most discussed topics. Bettors currently have Sassaman at a 46% chance of being named as Satoshi in the documentary.

Who was Len Sassaman? 

Sassaman, who passed away in 2011, was a cryptographer known for his contributions to privacy and decentralization. He worked on tools like Mixmaster, an email anonymizer that shielded users’ identities and was deeply embedded in the cryptographic community. 

His connection to Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin developer and the recipient of the first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi, adds another layer to the speculation.

In 2008, Satoshi released the whitepaper that laid out the foundation of Bitcoin. Just as the digital currency was gaining momentum, Satoshi disappeared in 2011. Months later, Sassaman passed away; his wife reported his death as suicide. 

Some believe that Sassaman’s death could be linked to Satoshi’s disappearance, with conspiracy theories suggesting that Sassaman may have taken his life to protect his privacy and Satoshi’s identity.

Though Len Sassaman is leading the Polymarket bets, other candidates include Hal Finney, who holds 11% of the wagers. Finney was an early contributor to Bitcoin’s codebase and a prominent figure in the cryptographic world.

Despite all this speculation, many remain skeptical. Another contract on Polymarket shows that 83% of bettors believe the documentary won’t definitively prove Satoshi’s identity this year.

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Bitcoin

Polymarket starts betting market on Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity

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Polymarket traders have started betting on who the HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery” will unmask as Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin.

On Oct. 4, Polymarket traders opened up a betting market for the big reveal of Satoshi Nakamoto, creator of Bitcoin (BTC).

The market is set to resolve on Oct. 8, the premiere date for the new HBO documentary titled “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” which promises to uncover the true identity of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator. In 2011, Satoshi disappeared from public view. Since then, a number of theories have emerged regarding who Satoshi truly is.

Polymarket betting market for Satoshi Nakamoto identity reveal — Oct. 4, 2024 | Source: Polymarket

At the time of writing, most Polymarket bettors believe Satoshi could be cryptographer Len Sassaman, as he holds the highest rank on the betting board, with 54% odds of him being the Bitcoin founder.

Many believe Sassaman could have been Satoshi due to his past academic works which were centered around cryptography. His work reflected his strong ideological commitment to privacy and decentralization. Another detail that conspirators have latched onto is the fact that Sassaman died by suicide in 2011, shortly after Satoshi stopped posting on Bitcoin’s forum BTCTalk.

The entry with the second highest votes is titled “Other/Multiple” with 38% odds, which predicts that the Bitcoin creator could either be multiple people or someone completely unknown or out of the crypto loop.

Aside from Sassaman, many also believe Hal Finney could have been Satoshi. With 16% odds, the American software developer was well-known for being an early Bitcoin contributor. He was also the first person to receive a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi himself.

In third place is Blockstream CEO Adam Back, one of the first two individuals to receive an email from Satoshi Nakamoto. He also features in the trailer for the upcoming HBO documentary.

Who has claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

From 2016 up until 2024, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright claimed that he was Satoshi Nakamoto. He made this claim after Wired magazine and Gizmodo suggested that he was Satoshi in a December 2015 article.

Since then, Wright has long proclaimed that he wrote the 2008 Bitcoin whitepaper under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. He even won a libel case against crypto blogger Peter McCormack despite giving “deliberately false evidence.” The court awarded him £1 in damages

However, in March, Judge James Mellor ruled that the evidence proving Wright was not Satoshi was “overwhelming,” after the Crypto Open Patent Alliance initiated a legal battle to prevent Wright from suing Bitcoin developers. After a rigorous two-month trial, the U.K. High Court officially ruled that Craig Wright was not Satoshi Nakamoto and that he is not the author of Bitcoin’s whitepaper.

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Theo Crypto News

Phân tích

Odds of Bitcoin price soaring to a new all-time high are rising: Polymarket

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Bitcoin has a high chance of soaring to a new high this year, according to a recently launched Polymarket poll.

Polymarket users see BTC hitting a new record high

Sixty-three percent of participants in the the poll believe that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its uptrend and reach a new record high. The odds of this happening have risen from this month’s low of 42%.

With Bitcoin trading at $63,840, it needs to rise by 15.6% to retest its all-time high of $68,777. This is possible as it has entered a technical bull market after rising over 21% from its lowest point in September.

Bitcoin has several potential catalysts that could push it to new highs. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates and hinted at continuing the process.

Economic data released this week supports these cuts. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing PMI remained below 45 in September, indicating contraction. Another report by the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence slipped this month as concerns about the labor market escalated.

As a result, the Fed is likely to continue cutting rates to prevent a hard landing. Bitcoin and other risky assets tend to perform well when officials adopt a dovish stance.

Meanwhile, data shows that institutional investors are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to Sosovalue, spot ETFs have seen inflows of over $392 million in the past four days, bringing the cumulative total to $17.8 billion.

Additional data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped to a new low, meaning that most holders have moved their coins to self-custody. There were 2.35 million coins on exchanges as of Sept. 25, down from the year-to-date high of 2.7 million.

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is seasonality. According to CoinGlass, the average Bitcoin return in the fourth quarter is 88%, while the median return is 56.90%. These figures are significantly better than those from the first three quarters of the year.

Bitcoin seasonality | Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin price narrowly avoided a death cross

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is that it has avoided forming a death cross, where the 200-day and 50-day moving averages cross each other. Historically, this cross has often led to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin has moved above both moving averages, indicating that bulls are currently in control.

Additionally, Bitcoin has formed two bullish patterns: an inverse head and shoulders and a falling broadening wedge. Historically, these patterns often lead to further upside.

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DeFi

Polymarket considering token launch as part of a $50M fundraising effort

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Polymarket plans to raise $50 million and is exploring a potential token launch as the on-chain betting platform grows.

According to a report from The Information citing anonymous sources, Polymarket will raise $50 million in fresh funding and could introduce a token that would “validate the outcome of real-world events.”

Launched in 2020, Polymarket emerged as a prominent player in the prediction market space this year, with its smart contracts running on the Polygon blockchain. It allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events, from sports to geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. presidential election drawing particular attention with nearly $1 billion wagered.

Data from DeFi Llama shows that Polymarket now holds over $121 million in total value locked, with its growth accelerating even further following mentions from major outlets such as Bloomberg and CNN, with the former even integrating Polymarket data into its election terminal.

The New York-based company is now considering offering investors warrants for future token purchases as part of the funding round, but it isn’t clear whether investors will receive equity, token warrants, or both if the token issuance plan moves forward.

The potential token could serve as a tool for users to validate real-world event outcomes, according to the sources, though the details of how this would function weren’t clarified. It is also unclear whether the token would replace or supplement Polymarket’s current use of the UMA Protocol, which resolves market outcomes via community votes.

Earlier this year, the company raised $70 million across two previous rounds, including a $45 million Series B led by Founders Fund, a venture capital firm started by billionaire Peter Thiel.  

Polymarket’s expansion plan surfaces as U.S. regulators have taken a firm stance against election betting contracts, arguing that it may influence outcomes. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam recently commented on the situation, warning that platforms offering offshore election betting to U.S. customers would face enforcement action if found violating U.S. law.

Currently, U.S. residents are blocked from accessing the platform as a part of a 2022 settlement with the CFTC, but some reports suggest that American users have been bypassing these restrictions using VPNs.

In related news, the on-chain prediction market continues to grow, with Wintermute, a prominent cryptocurrency market maker, announcing plans to launch OutcomeMarket, a multi-chain platform focused on U.S. election betting.

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NFT

Polygon rises as Polymarket, Pokemon Cards growth continues

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Polygon price continued rising this week, helped by the strong performance of Polymarket and Pokemon Cards.

Polygon (POL) rose to a high of $0.4200, up by over 12% in the last seven days, bringing its market cap to over $1.3 billion.

This rally occurred as the network upgraded and migrated its token from MATIC to POL. After the upgrade, POL became the native and staking token for the Polygon Proof-of-Stake network. In the future, it will be the main token for the AggLayer.

The token has also rallied amid ongoing ecosystem growth. Polymarket, one of the biggest prediction platforms, has seen strong growth in the past few months. Data from SimilarWeb shows that the website had over 13.8 million visitors in August, a 52% increase from the previous month.

The amount of money in the network has also been growing. The presidential election winner prediction market holds almost $900 million in assets, while the popular winner prediction has $201 million.

Data from DeFi Llama shows that Polymarket has over $122 million in total value locked and has a market dominance of 82% in the prediction market. This growth will likely continue as the platform goes mainstream, with popular media outlets like CNN and Bloomberg mentioning it.

Meanwhile, Pokemon Cards NFT sales are doing relatively well. Data from Dune Analytics shows that the monthly sales volume rose to a record high of $1.6 million in August, up from $1 million the previous month. Sales this month have so far reached $749,000.

Pokemon Card sales | chart by Dune

Meanwhile, the total value locked in Polygon’s Decentralized Finance ecosystem rose by 2.46% to $861 million in the last 30 days. The amount in Ethereum (ETH) fell by 10% while that in Arbitrum and Base fell by over 2% in the same period. 

However, Polygon’s market share in the decentralized exchange industry has been declining. The volume of coins traded on its blockchain dropped by 12.2% in the last seven days to $476 million. Base and Arbitrum, other popular layer-2 networks, handled $3.18 billion and $3.2 billion in the same period.

Polygon flips key resistance, gets overbought

Polygon price chart | Source: TradingView

The POL token was in a consolidation phase after its launch last week. This performance ended on Friday, Sept. 13, when it went parabolic, crossing the crucial resistance point at $0.3900, its highest swing on Sept. 10.

The Average Directional Index, a popular trend indicator, rose to 36, while the Relative Strength Index reached the overbought point of 87. Therefore, POL may retreat soon due to profit-taking, which could see it retest the support at $0.40.

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Altcoin

Polymarket: Ethereum price to hit $2k before $4k

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Ethereum price will likely drop to $2,000 first before jumping to $4,000, according to Polymarket, the popular prediction platform.

Odds of Ethereum (ETH) falling to $2,000 before Dec. 31 have been rising since Aug. 25, when they bottomed at 54%. These odds increased to 60% on Aug. 27 as the coin dropped to $2,600 from this week’s high of $2,818.

Ethereum, like most altcoins, has been in a strong downward trend since March, when it peaked at $4,085. Therefore, the odds of falling to $2,000 have risen since the coin needs to drop by 23%. It would need to rise by 54% to reach $4,000.

Another Polymarket poll with $231,000 in assets shows an 8% chance of Ether rising to $3,000 before September. Most traders in another poll with $1.1 million don’t expect it to hit a record high this year.

Ethereum has faced numerous challenges this year. It is experiencing substantial competition in the stablecoin market, where Tron (TRX) is handling billions of dollars in transactions each day.

It is also facing competition in the Decentralized Finance industry, where Solana (SOL) had the most DEX volume in July as demand for its meme coins rose. Solana’s DEX volume was $57 billion in July, while Ethereum handled $54.5 billion.

This month, however, Ethereum is leading by far, having handled $50 billion compared to Solana’s $33 billion.

The biggest challenge that Ether is facing is that its exchange-traded funds are not having traction among investors. Data by SoSoValue shows that these funds have had a cumulative outflow of $477 million since their inception. They have had outflows in the past eight consecutive days. 

Ethereum formed a death cross

Ethereum price chart | Source: TradingView

Additionally, Ether has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows. Most importantly, it has also formed a death cross as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages have crossed each other. 

It has also formed a bearish flag chart pattern, pointing to more downside. If this happens, the next point to watch will be this month’s low at $2,113. A break below that point will raise the chances of the coin falling to $2,000.

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