Scroll, the fast-growing zero-knowledge layer-2 network, confirmed that it would launch its airdrop on Oct. 19.
Scroll (SCR) pre-market futures plunged to a record low of $1.18 on Friday, Oct. 11, as traders remained concerned about recent airdrops. Its lowest point was below its weekly high of $1.74.
Most recent high-profile airdrops have flopped. Wormhole’s token has retreated by over 83% from its listing price, Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) has dropped by 72% from its all-time high, and Catizen (CATI) has fallen significantly.
This retreat is partly because the broader crypto market is not doing wel, with the fear and greed index stuck below 45. Bitcoin has also failed to move above the resistance point at $65,000.
Another likely reason is that many recent airdrops leave a substantial number of tokens locked. Wormhole has 2.58 billion tokens in circulation against a maximum supply of 10 billion. Similarly, ZkSync has 3.6 billion tokens circulating and a maximum supply of 21 billion.
Scroll will have a maximum supply of 1 billion SCR tokens. Of these, 23% will go to contributing members, while 15% will be allocated for airdrops, with 7% in the first one. The rest will be distributed to investors, the foundation, and ecosystem growth.
To be fair, these futures don’t provide a clear picture of what will happen after the airdrop since they are offered by just one exchange, and their volume is relatively small. Its 24-hour turnover was just 854,320 contracts.
Scroll is embarking on its first step towards decentralization.
Scroll has emerged as one of the fastest-growing blockchains this year, attracting 103 developers in decentralized finance.
According to DeFi Llama, it has over 83,000 addresses and a total value locked of $807 million. It also has over $103 million in stablecoins, a good amount for a network that was launched a year ago.
The biggest dApps in its network are Pencils Protocol, AAVE, Tranches Yield, Tokan Exchange, and Kelp DAO. Pencils, the largest dApp in the ecosystem, is a farming network that allows its 709,000 users to generate returns.
Scroll has also become a notable player in the DEX industry, where its dApps handled tokens worth $178 million in the last seven days. These numbers make it a larger blockchain than Cardano, Near Protocol, and Algorand.
Hamster Kombat, the popular Telegram tap-to-earn game, is struggling as its token continues crashing to new lows.
Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) token plunged to a record low of $0.0039, 70% lower than its all-time high of $0.0132. Its circulating market cap has dropped to $253 million, while its fully diluted valuation has slipped to $394 million.
The token’s sell-off occurred even after it received listings from some of the biggest centralized exchanges in the industry, including top-tier exchanges like Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget.
The decline has coincided with the plunge of other tap-to-earn tokens. Notcoin (NOT), the largest tap-to-earn token, initially rose to $0.029 in June but then slumped by 74% to $0.0074.
Catizen (CATI), the biggest Telegram gaming token, has also slumped by 63% from its post-listing high. Other similar tokens like Pixelverse and DOGS (DOGS) have all plunged by over 60%.
The fall of ‘to-earn’ tokens
Historically, most “to-earn” tokens tend to crash over time. For example, play-to-earn cryptocurrencies like Decentraland, The Sandbox, and Axie Infinity have retreated by double digits from their all-time highs.
Move-to-earn platforms showed a lot of promise when they were launched. At its peak, Sweatcoin was one of the most downloaded apps in the Google and Apple app stores. It had over 50 million users who accumulated tokens by simply walking or running. However, Sweat Economy, its token, has dropped by over 93% from its all-time high. StepN’s GMT has also tanked.
The challenge for Hamster Kombat is how to keep the community engaged as its token implodes. According to the developers, HMSTR holders who decide to keep their tokens in the game instead of withdrawing will receive a token boost when the second season starts.
Dear CEOs,
We have added an option of keeping your tokens in the game (check the Airdrop section).
If you decide to keep your tokens instead of withdrawing them, you’ll be (very) pleasantly surprised!
Hamster Kombat’s issue is that many tokens are still locked, meaning current holders will likely see substantial dilution in the long term. With 63.3 billion tokens in circulation, 37 billion are still locked.
Token unlocks, especially when there is no burning mechanism, lead to dilution as more tokens are added to circulation.
The sell-off has also been fueled by weak sentiment in the crypto industry. Bitcoin has remained between $60,000 and $62,000, while most altcoins have retreated.
Therefore, the Hamster Kombat token may bounce back if Bitcoin and most altcoins stage a comeback. Additionally, it has formed a falling wedge on the four-hour chart, a highly popular bullish sign.
TON ecosystem tokens recently listed on major crypto exchanges have significantly dropped.
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The largest tokens by market capitalization in the TON ecosystem have seen a sharp decline in the past few days. Relative to the all-time high (ATH), the drop has reached 30-50%.
Notably, many of them were recently listed on major crypto exchanges. These include Dogs (DOGS), Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), and Catizen (CATI). The Toncoin (TON) token has also dropped significantly — more than 8% in a week.
Top TON ecosystem tokens by market capitalization | Source: CoinMarketCap
The market capitalization of the TON ecosystem tokens continues to decline — trading volumes fell by more than 27% to $675 million. The ratio of buy and sell orders on the Binance crypto exchange suggests that traders are rushing to get rid of once-coveted tokens.
DOGS plummeted by 58%, but developers have a plan B
Since its listing on Aug. 26, the DOGS token, 81.5% of which was supplied by the community, has plummeted by more than 58% to $0.0006599. It is noteworthy that there is no vesting period, therefore users were able to trade their DOGS immediately after the airdrop and, as a result, sell them immediately after the listing.
Amid the late token price collapse at the end of September, the DOGS team announced an upcoming token burn to reduce the total DOGS. Typically, token burning aims to increase its value — the number of unclaimed coins that need to be removed from circulation will be voted on by the asset holders.
Hamster Kombat did not live up to expectations after the airdrop
The excitement of the Hamster Kombat community turned bearish shortly after the token distribution. Despite the initial interest in the project, the active selling of HMSTR tokens led to their significant depreciation last week.
At the moment of listing, the coin price on some exchanges reached $0.014, but massive sell-offs quickly reduced the token’s value. Since its launch on Sep. 26, the token has lost 50% in value.
The catalyst for the fall was apparently the unsuccessful airdrop and listing. Users repeatedly complained about the unfair distribution of rewards, the postponement of dates and changes in rules, the low starting price of the HMSTR token trades, and the problem with selling HMSTR: the reward for many project participants for tapping the hamster was only a couple of dollars.
Such users needed help selling tokens since many exchanges restrict opening orders.
However, despite the rapid fall in the rate, open interest in HMSTR Futures remains stable. According to Coinglass, this figure has been at $60 million since the beginning of October.
HMSTR futures OI | Source: Coinglass
In many ways, Hamster Kombat repeated the story of Catizen — another Telegram-based project that disappointed users after the airdrop.
An unexpected change in the rules of the game or why they started to dump CATI
CATI also announced the rating of the leaders of the fall of tokens in the TON ecosystem: like other similar projects, the coin’s price has fallen by 50% since Sep. 20.
The rise and fall of Catizen are reminiscent of the path of Hamster Kombat. Shortly before the start of the distribution, the team unexpectedly changed the rules of the game.
Initially, 43% of the total supply of CATI tokens was intended for players. However, the developers unexpectedly changed the conditions, so the community got only 30%.
The community’s discontent was not limited to this. Soon after the airdrop, it turned out that user spending in the game influenced the criteria for distributing tokens. Those who invested money in the game, not time, received a significant advantage.
After this, many players shared stories about how they took leading places but received very few rewards. As a result, a wave of discontent with the hashtag #catizenscam swept through social networks.
1 Airdrop is on June/July 2 Most impt criteria is vKitty/s or cat level 3 Claimed tokens will be received before Sep 28 10AM UTC. 4 Airdrop is 43% 5 If you can’t hold you won’t be rich (then token dumps)
Airdrops are considered one of the most popular strategies for attracting users. Many projects launched on the Telegram platform used them.
For example, Dogs, Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and similar projects actively awarded users coins for simple actions. As a result, tokens distributed through airdrops cannot maintain long-term interest or preserve their value.
Airdrops, used to increase project engagement and distribute tokens more widely among users, have probably lost their former influence as users have become oversaturated with such strategies.
For example, KeyRock experts analyzed 62 airdrops in six blockchains since the beginning of 2024. The data showed that 88.7% of the tokens demonstrated a significant price decline within 90 days after the distribution. Only a few of them showed sustainability.
Token price movements after airdrops | Source: KeyRock
At the same time, small airdrops have shown greater resilience in the short term. This is probably due to the low selling pressure during the token launch. However, in the longer term, tokens still fall over three months.
Moreover, Telegram-based games are still young, and investors may still determine whether the demand for them will last. This also fuels users’ tendency to sell off tokens, which ultimately negatively affects their price.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn told crypto.news that newly launched tokens in the TON ecosystem often follow a typical hype cycle.
“Initially, short-term expectations tend to be excessively high, while long-term expectations are often underestimated.”
Maartunn, CryptoQuant analyst
He also visualized the number of Hamster Token transactions relative to all TON transactions. The trend line illustrates the classic hype cycle model.
Performance of the HMSTR token. Source: CryptoQuant
Among other recently launched coins, Hamster Kombat is one of the most popular. However, Maartunn noted that many meme coins will eventually fail; only those with good fundamentals and a strong network can survive.
The global crypto market cap ended last week with a 7% drop, losing $160 billion as it closed at $2.15 trillion.
While Bitcoin (BTC) influenced the broader market, several altcoins charted their own paths, benefiting from unique developments within their ecosystems.
Here are some of these cryptocurrencies to keep an eye on this week, following their diverse price movements last week:
HMSTR collapses 18%
Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) saw a bearish week, dropping 18% to $0.004714. Its worst day came on Oct. 1 when it fell 13.94% amid a broader market decline on the back of geopolitical tensions.
Last week’s bearishness built on a downtrend HMSTR has faced since its airdrop on Sept. 26. However, the four-hour chart shows some signs of recovery, with the RSI sloping upward, now at 42.82.
For the DMI, the +DI is steady at 17.46, signaling slight buyer momentum. However, the -DI at 23.07 slopes downward, indicating weakening selling pressure. The ADX is at 22.68 and trending downward, as the current trend loses strength.
These figures suggest a possible recovery if buying momentum continues, with bulls possibly targeting $0.0051. However, the downtrend may persist if buyers do not pick up pace this week.
SUI demonstrates resilience
Sui (SUI) showed resilience despite broader market volatility, dropping only 0.3%. On Oct. 1, amid market turmoil, SUI dipped just 0.97%.
However, it saw a sharper 10.38% decline on Oct. 3, its largest intraday crash in three months.
SUI appears to be forming a bull pennant following its uptrend in September. Currently, the Bollinger Bands indicate the upper band at $1.97, which acts as resistance, and the 20-day MA at $1.62 provides immediate support.
With SUI trading below the upper band, the price could stabilize above the $1.62 support.
Investors should monitor for a bounce between $1.62 and $1.97, with a breakout above the resistance likely signaling bullish momentum for the week.
FTT bucks the trend
FTX Token (FTT) defied market trends last week, gaining 22% while most assets declined.
On Oct. 1, FTT rose by 13.89%, followed by a 21.53% surge on Oct. 4 and another 9.86% the next day.
FTT 1D chart – Oct. 6 | Source: crypto.news
Amid this uptrend, the Williams Percent Range stands at -32.59, signaling that FTT is near overbought territory but still has room for further gains.
As it witnesses a 9% retracement this new week, bulls need to defend the Pivot support at $2.01 to prevent a slip into bearish territories. Below this, the next support rests at $1.33, marking lows last seen in two weeks.
Should FTT recover from the latest correction, market participants should watch for a break above the resistance level at $2.68, which continues the bullish momentum.
Hamster Kombat’s sell-off accelerated in the futures market as demand among investors waned.
Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) futures dropped to a record low of $0.1586 on Aug. 16, down by over 50% from its highest level this month. On the positive side, the performance of these pre-market futures may not fully represent what to expect when the airdrop launches.
For one, the futures are only offered by OKX, and their volume is significantly low. Data the platform showed that open interest was just 295,720 HMSTR tokens, while the 24-hour volume was 389,000 tokens.
Hamster Kombat futures price | chart by TradingView
However, there is a risk that the token could drop further if the airdrop happens in this current market environment, where most altcoins are experiencing a bear market.
Additionally, all tap-to-earn tokens that have listed recently have dropped by double digits. Notably, Notcoin (NOT) token has crashed by over 68% from its highest level in June. It’s performance is a sign of what might happen when its airdrop happens.
Hamster Kombat’s futures trading is happening at a time when there are signs that activity on the network is slowing. For instance, the platform’s YouTube channel’s growth has stalled. After hitting over 30 million subscribers in a month, the total subscriber count stood at 35 million on Aug. 16.
Hamster Kombat, which claims to have over 300 million users, faces significant challenges ahead. The biggest one will be maintaining user engagement when the airdrop finally launches, allowing users to sell their HMSTR tokens.
In the past, many blockchain companies have faced similar situations where initial enthusiasm fades. For example, Shiba Inu (SHIB), one of the most popular meme coins, rose to $0.000088 in 2021 and has since retreated by 85% to $0.000015.
Hamster Kombat futures price dropped to a record low in the futures market as concerns about the tap-to-earn market rose.
The Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) futures fell to a low of $0.1645 on Sunday, down by over 45% from its highest point this month. The retreat occurred as the platform’s token holders continued to wait for the official airdrop, which is expected to happen later this year.
In a recent white paper, the developers noted that players will receive just 60% of their tokens when the airdrop takes place. They also anticipate that it will be the biggest airdrop in the crypto industry.
Based on Notcoin’s (NOT) valuation of over $1.2 billion, Hamster Kombat could achieve a valuation of nearly $8 billion due to its larger brand presence. Hamster has over 300 million active users and a more vibrant social media community, with over 35 million YouTube channel subscribers and 12.6 million X followers.
Hamster Kombat’s price action mirrors that of other top tap-to-earn tokens that have crashed in recent weeks. Notcoin, a platform with over 50 million users, has dropped by over 60% from its highest point level this year, shedding over $1.7 billion in market capitalization.
Pixelverse (PIXFI) token has also dropped by over 82% from its all-time high, while Avacoin (AVACN) has retreated by almost 90%.
Therefore, there are fears that the Hamster Kombat spot price will also drop sharply after the airdrop as many holders may dump the token.
Historically, other play-to-earn and move-to-earn tokens have thrived and then retreated as demand waned. Axie Infinity (AXS) token has retreated from a record high of $171.45 to below $5.
Hamster’s challenge will be keeping users engaged after the token listing. Earlier this month, Notcoin revealed plans to venture into Web3 gaming to maintain user engagement.
It is too early to predict whether users will participate in this game. Besides, there are many more Telegram games in the industry, like Catizen, Notai, Gamee, and Twin Token, that have added over 7.5 million users.
The performance of popular Telegram tap-to-earn tokens like Avacoin, Pixelverse, and Notcoin is sending a warning to Hamster Kombat.
Hamster Kombat hits 300 million users
Due to its huge popularity, the Hamster Kombat token launch is one of the most anticipated events in the crypto industry, although the timeline for an airdrop is uncertain.
Data shows that the platform has accumulated over 300 million users globally and 50 million daily active users. Its YouTube channel has added over 35 million subscribers, while its other social media platforms have millions of users.
Hamster Kombat has surpassed other popular players in the blockchain industry, like Pi Network, which had over 50 million users at its peak. Many HMSTR holders look forward to the token listing, which will let them liquidate or HODL their tokens.
Notcoin, Avacoin, and Pixelverse have dropped
Current data shows that other popular tap-to-earn tokens are not doing well after listing.
Notcoin (NOT), which was listed in May, has dropped by 55.8% to $0.012. Its market cap has decreased from over $2.5 billion to $1.32 billion, even after recent measures to grow its ecosystem.
Similarly, the Pixelverse (PIXFI) token has dropped to $0.030, down by 70% from its highest point this month, sending its market cap tumbling to $160 million.
Notcoin vs Pixelverse | Source: TradingView
Avacoin (AVCN), the latest tap-to-earn token to list, has also not performed well. According to Bitget, the token opened at $0.002 on Tuesday and traded at $0.00091 during the day.
Avacoin, Notcoin, and Pixelverse are similar projects to Hamster Kombat in letting users earn tokens by doing simple tasks. In addition to regular tapping, users can gain more tokens by completing tasks like watching YouTube videos and following social media accounts.
Therefore, the price action of these coins is a warning shot to Hamster Kombat, suggesting that their price could also drop after their airdrops. According to its new white paper, Hamster Kombat users will receive 60% of the airdrop tokens, with the rest going to market liquidity, partnerships, and grants.
The developers hope to learn from other play-to-earn platforms like Decentraland (MANA), Sandbox (SAND), and Axie Infinity (AXS). These games have had little activity in the past few years, and their tokens have dropped.
Hamster Kombat aims to solve this challenge by launching regular seasons where users can earn tokens. However, the risk remains that current HMSTR holders might dump tokens after the airdrop, pushing the price lower.
Notcoin price continued to sell-off on Thursday as its daily volume slumped. Investor focus appear to have shifted to other Telegram tap-to-earn applications like Hamster Kombat, TapSwap, and Yescoin.
NOT traded at .015 on Thursday, down by almost 50% from its highest point this month. This plunge has resulted in its market cap tumbling from over .7 billion to .5 billion.
Data compiled by CoinGecko showsthat the volume of Notcoin traded in all exchanges dropped from 5 million on Wednesday to 0 million. This volume represents the lowest level seen since June 14 and could be viewed a sign that its hype is slowing.
Hamster Combat users dwarf Notcoin
Notcoin price has retreated as the market focused on the upcoming airdrops of leading tap-to-earn platforms on Telegram. Data shows that Hamster Combat’s users have jumped to over 150 million, much higher than Notcoin’s 40 million.
Similarly, TapSwap’s users have soared to over 54 million while YesCoin has more than 11 million users. Some of the other popular tap-to-earn platforms on Telegram are Blum (20 million), Dotcoin (15 million), MemeFi (13.9 million), and BBQCoin (9 million).
Notcoin and other tap-to-earn platforms let users mine cryptocurrencies by just tapping a button on their apps. Eventually, as we saw with Notcoin, these users convert their tokens into fiat currencies when the token listing happens.
The growth of these tap-to-earn networks can be attributed to the ease of use and the number of Telegram users. The most recent data showed that Telegram had accumulated over 900 million users from around the world.
These users can sign up easily and then start earning by tapping a button on the mini app. They can also earn more tokens by doing some simple activities like inviting friends, liking a social media page, and participating in leagues.
Tap-to-earn has become the next iteration of blockchain gaming, an industry that boomed during the pandemic and then faded. At the time, gaming platforms like Decentraland, Sandbox, and Axie Infinity were some of the hottest players in blockchain.
As a result, their tokens surged and attained multi-billion-dollar valuations. They then crumbled and have never bounced back. Therefore, it will be interesting to watch whether Notcoin, Hamster Kombat, Dotcoin, and Blum will have staying power.
