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Altcoin

Bitcoin could soar by 62% if this happens: Wall Street analyst

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Bitcoin could soar by 62% if this happens: Wall Street analyst

Bitcoin price rose for three consecutive days as investors bought the dip ahead of the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate and the closely watched U.S. inflation report.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $55,700 while Ethereum (ETH) jumped to $2,320. The gains coincided with a positive performance in the stock market, where the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices all rose by over 1%. These assets rebounded following the mixed jobs report, which showed that the jobless rate fell to 4.2%, while wage growth strengthened.

Bernstein is bullish on Bitcoin

In a note ahead of the Trump and Harris debate, an analyst at Bernstein predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $90,000 if Trump wins in November. Such a move would represent a 62% increase from its Sep. 8 levels. The analyst also expects the coin to drop to a low of $30,000 if Harris wins.

Bernstein is a major player on Wall Street, as part of AllianceBernstein, a company with over $700 billion in assets under management and a market cap of over $3.8 billion.

The analyst believes that Donald Trump will usher in a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment following the tenure of Gary Gensler, who has been criticized by many in the crypto industry for focusing on regulation through enforcement. During Gensler’s tenure, the SEC has sued companies like Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, and OpenSea. 

Trump has vowed to fire Gensler and support the crypto industry. For example, he has stated that he will not allow the sale of Bitcoins currently held by the government. He also aims to promote the U.S. as the leading Bitcoin mining country.

However, history shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well regardless of who is in the White House. It has reached all-time highs under every president since its inception. It peaked at a record high of $73,800 during Joe Biden’s presidency and under Gary Gensler’s oversight.

Federal Reserve rate cuts

Another possible catalyst for Bitcoin is the Federal Reserve’s actions, particularly if this week’s data confirms that inflation is easing. Economists expect the numbers to show that the headline Consumer Price Index retreated to 2.6% in August.

If this is accurate, the Fed may implement a 0.50% rate cut at its September meeting. Bitcoin and other risky assets tend to perform well when the central bank is cutting rates.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

For Bitcoin to reach $90,000, it will need to move past the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $60,000. It will also need to rise above the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March.

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Theo Crypto News

Bitcoin

Crypto products see second-biggest weekly outflows in 2024: CoinShares

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Data collected by crypto ETP provider CoinShares indicates that the crypto market witnessed the largest weekly outflows since March amid falling prices.

Crypto investment products faced outflows exceeding $725 million last week, matching the largest recorded outflow since March.

In a Sept. 9 research report, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill attributed this dynamic to stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data from the previous week, which increased speculation about a potential 25 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

“The markets are now awaiting Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index inflation report, with a 50bp cut more likely if inflation comes in below expectations.”

James Butterfill, CoinShares head of research

The data shows that outflows were mainly concentrated in the U.S., which saw a net withdrawal of $721 million, while Canada-based products witnessed outflows of $28 million. In contrast, European markets showed more positive sentiment, with Germany and Switzerland recording inflows of $16.3 million and $3.2 million, respectively.

Bitcoin stuck in fear zone

Bitcoin (BTC) saw the largest outflows at $643 million, while short-bitcoin had small inflows of $3.9 million. Ethereum (ETH) lost $98 million, mainly from the Grayscale Trust, as exchange-traded fund inflows slowed. Solana (SOL) stood out with $6.2 million in inflows, the highest among digital assets.

Bitcoin also saw a sharp decline in exchange activity, with daily inflows dropping 68% from 68,470 BTC to 21,742 BTC, and outflows falling 65% from 65,847 BTC to 22,802 BTC. Data from Alternative shows that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 26, its lowest point in over a month, signaling heightened investor anxiety and a more cautious market sentiment.

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DeFi

Ethereum Foundation offloads 450 ETH in latest sale

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The Ethereum Foundation has kept up its streak of selling ETH this year, most recently offloading 450 ETH for 1.029 million DAI.

According to the analytics platform SpotOnChain, on Sept. 9, the Ethereum Foundation, the main non-profit organization supporting the Ethereum blockchain, shed 450 ETH from its holdings and swapped it for the stablecoin DAI.

This transaction followed a sale of 100 ETH for 241,000 DAI on Sept. 5, bringing the Foundation’s total sales for 2024 to 3066 ETH. 

Further, On Sep. 6, the Foundation transferred an additional 1,000 ETH, valued at $2.38 million, to another multi-signature wallet, which is likely to be swapped for stablecoins. This was followed by another transaction of 1000 ETH the next day.

So far this year, the Ethereum Foundation has accumulated about 8.66 million DAI, while still holding 274,012 ETH across seven wallets, worth approximately $637 million.

Last month, wallets linked to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin transferred a total of 3,800 ETH, worth about $9.99 million, to a multi-signature wallet—3,000 ETH on Aug. 9 and another 800 ETH on Aug. 30. Since then, 760 ETH from the receiving wallet was sold for 1.835 million USDC at an average of $2,414 per ETH. 

The transfers sparked accusations that Buterin was selling ETH for profits, but he recently denied these claims, stating the funds were intended for supporting ecosystem development and philanthropic efforts.

Insiders offer clarification

While the Ethereum Foundation hasn’t officially commented on its recent ETH sales, insiders have noted that these transactions are in line with its standard financial strategy.

Aya Miyaguchi, the executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, has previously explained that the foundation’s annual budget of around $100 million is primarily used for operational costs, grants, and salaries—expenses that often require fiat currency. To meet these needs, the Foundation strategically converts some of its ETH holdings into stablecoins like DAI.

“There will be planned and gradual sales,” Miyaguchi noted at the time.

Meanwhile, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake has disclosed the foundation will release a financial report “soon,” which is expected to provide further insights on the recent sales.

ETH’s price has felt the pressure from the recent sales with the flagship altcoin currently down 11.9% over the past 30 days. Many fear these sell-offs could trigger further price drops.

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Theo Crypto News

Phân tích

40,000 ETH left derivative exchanges, brings lower selling pressure

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Ethereum witnessed increased outflows from derivative exchanges after its fall below the $2,200 mark on Sept. 7.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, over 40,000 Ethereum (ETH), worth roughly $90 million, left derivative exchanges over the weekend. The outflows started a few hours after the ETH price touched a local bottom of $2,172 on Saturday, Sept. 7.

The analyst claims that the increased outflows could hint at reduced selling pressure. This could also reduce the “borrowing amounts for opening new short” positions.

Per data from Santiment, the ETH total open interest declined by roughly $171 million on Sept. 6, falling to $4.78 billion. However, the asset’s open interest quickly regained most of its losses and is currently sitting at $4.93 billion.

ETH price, RSI, open interest and sentiment – Sept. 9 | Source: Santiment

Ethereum is up 1.3% in the past 24 hours and is trading at $2,325 at the time of writing. Its daily trading volume increased by 33%, reaching $12.4 billion. 

Data from the market intelligence platform shows that the ETH Relative Strength Index is hovering at 34. The indicator shows that the second-largest cryptocurrency is oversold at this price point as FUD dominates the market.

Despite the impressive ETH outflows from derivative exchanges, the weighted sentiment around Ethereum remains negative, according to Santiment data.

Spot ETH exchange-traded funds in the U.S. also registered consecutive outflows last week. These investment products have recorded $568.5 million in net outflows since their launch in July.

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Altcoin

Can Ethereum provide a settlement layer for financial markets? | Opinion

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Public blockchains have a role to play in the future of financial markets, and Ethereum is well-positioned among public blockchains to act as a settlement layer. Understanding risk in the Ethereum ecosystem is vital to building robust applications for financial markets.

The benefits of blockchain and tokenization

For years, institutions have explored the use of blockchain and tokenization in financial markets. They aim to save time and money by streamlining settlement processes, using blockchain as a single source of truth among transaction participants, and reducing the need for cumbersome reconciliation efforts across participants’ records. 

Institutions also hope to make more asset types easier to use as collateral for transactions and to manage liquidity more efficiently by enabling intraday transactions. Holding assets as tokens on a blockchain should be an improvement over existing systems for most investors, and it should be possible to tokenize most financial assets. So, in the long run, shouldn’t all assets be tokenized?

Real use cases but small volumes

The key use cases so far in traditional financial markets are digital bonds (the issuance of a bond as a token on a blockchain) and tokenized Treasuries (or tokenized money market funds, shares in a fund holding US Treasuries). We have rated digital bonds across sovereign, local governments, banks, multilateral institutions, and corporates. 

We have also seen traditional financial incumbents setting up tokenized money market funds, such as Blackrock’s BUIDL fund. However, to date, the volumes of digital bonds and tokenized money market funds remain a tiny fraction of the volumes issued in traditional markets. What’s holding back adoption?

Challenges to adoption

Interoperability

The first key challenge is interoperability. Investors need to access the blockchains on which the tokenized assets are built, and institutions need to connect their legacy systems to those blockchains. To date, digital bond issuers have primarily used private permissioned blockchains, each of these being a “walled garden” set up by a specific institution. This does not support a liquid secondary market for these bonds to trade, hindering wider adoption. Different paths are emerging to address these challenges, including the use of:

  • Public blockchains. In recent months, we have seen the issuance of digital bonds on public blockchains, including Ethereum and Polygon. Blackrock also issued the BUIDL fund on Ethereum;
  • Private permissioned blockchains shared between a network of partner institutions;
  • Cross-chain communication technologies to allow different private and public chains to interact while mitigating security risks.

On-chain payments

The second key challenge is executing the cash leg of payments on-chain. Most digital bonds have used traditional payment systems rather than on-chain bond payments. This limits the benefits of issuing on-chain, weakening issuers’ incentive to issue and investors’ interest in buying digital bonds. In recent months, however, we have seen the first digital bonds from traditional issuers using on-chain payments in Switzerland, using a wholesale digital Swiss Franc issued by the Swiss National Bank specifically for this purpose. 

In jurisdictions where central bank digital currencies are further from crystalizing, privately issued stablecoins may similarly be tools that support the on-chain cash leg in financial market transactions. Emerging regulatory frameworks in key jurisdictions will enhance investors’ appetite to engage with stablecoins and the features they enable, boosting the adoption of on-chain payments.

Legal and regulatory considerations

Institutions remain cautious due to legal and regulatory questions, particularly with regard to their privacy, KYC/AML obligations, and whether it is possible to meet these obligations when using a public permissionless blockchain such as Ethereum. Technical innovations are emerging that address these challenges at different levels rather than the main Ethereum settlement layer. For example, zero-knowledge-proof technology can support privacy applications, whereas new token standards (such as ERC-3643 for Ethereum) enable transaction permissioning at the asset level.

Ethereum’s position in financial markets

Among public blockchains, Ethereum is well-positioned to gain adoption in a financial market context. It is where most of the liquidity in institutional-focused stablecoins currently resides. It benefits from relatively mature and battle-tested technology in its execution and consensus mechanisms, as well as its token standards and decentralized finance markets. 

Indeed, some of the main private blockchains used in financial markets have been developed to be compatible with Ethereum’s virtual machine. By converging around a common standard, institutions hope to keep pace with innovation and talent.

Managing Ethereum’s ecosystem risks

Ethereum’s success as a tool in financial markets will depend on institutions’ ability to understand and monitor Ethereum’s concentration risks, as well as the ecosystem’s ability to manage these risks. Ethereum requires the consensus of two-thirds of the network’s validators to finalize each new block added to the chain. If more than one-third of validators are offline at once, blocks cannot be finalized. It’s, therefore, crucial to monitor any concentration risk that could cause this to happen. In particular:

  • No single entity controls a third of validator nodes. The largest staking concentration (29%) is through the Lido decentralized staking protocol: these nodes share exposure to Lido’s smart contract risk but are operated by a multitude of different operators.
  • Diversification of client software packages run by validators (consensus and execution clients) mitigates the risk of a network outage resulting from any bug in this software. This is a strength over most public blockchains, which currently each use a single client. Client concentration risk persists, however, as seen in the network’s only delayed finality event in May 2023.
  • Validators are not concentrated through a single cloud provider: the largest exposure hosted by a single provider is only 16% of validators.

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Altcoin

Neiro on ETH price doubles as crypto dump unfolds

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It was a sea of red in the crypto and stock markets on Friday, Sep. 6, as the market reacted to the mixed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed to $53,000, its lowest point since Aug. 7 while AAVE (AAVE) and Near Protocol (NEAR) fell by over 4%. 

The same sell-off occurred in the stock market as the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 indices fell by over 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap-heavy Russell 2000 indices were among the worst performers. Popular technology companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Broadcom fell by over 5%.

On the other hand, Neiro on ETH (NEIRO), a relatively new meme coin, was the best-performing asset as the Black Friday sell-off continued. Its token jumped by more than 100% to a high of $0.176, its highest swing since Aug. 5. 

It has surged by more than 538% from its lowest point this week, giving it a market cap of over $147 million. This rally occurred as the token went viral on social media, becoming the most shared token on X.

Neiro on ETH also jumped after Binance launched its USD-margined perpetual contracts. Data compiled by CoinGlass shows that the token’s open interest surged to a record high of $35 million. This open interest was mostly from Bybit, meaning the figure could increase when Binance is fully integrated.

In most cases, tokens tend to see more activity after being listed on Binance and other tier-1 exchanges. However, these gains are often short-lived as the market adjusts to the new normal. For example, Pyth Network surged after its Binance listing in February, only to drop to a record low this month.

The other risk for Neiro on ETH is that Bitcoin is about to form a death cross pattern, which could lead to further downside. Most altcoins tend to drop when Bitcoin is underperforming.

Still, a potential catalyst for Neiro and other coins is the weak jobs report, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a historically bullish signal.

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Altcoin

VanEck to close Ethereum futures ETF by late September

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VanEck announced today its decision to close and liquidate its Ethereum Strategy ETF, which is listed on the CBOE. 

The Ethereum (ETH) ETF fund (ticker symbol ‘EFUT’) will cease trading after the market closes on Sept. 16, according to a VanEck press release, with liquidation expected around Sept. 23.

Shareholders who still hold EFUT shares on the liquidation date will receive a cash distribution based on the net asset value of their holdings.

The decision follows VanEck’s regular evaluation of factors such as “performance, liquidity, assets under management, and investor interest, among others.” According to the release, these criteria and other operational considerations led to the fund’s closure. 

VanEck’s recent ETH moves

VanEck’s move comes after the approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded product, which may have influenced the decision to discontinue the futures-based ETF.

An ETP directly exposes an asset by holding it or its equivalent, like spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum. A futures ETF tracks the price of futures contracts, offering indirect exposure to an asset’s future price movements.

Investors may also receive a final distribution of any remaining net income or capital gains before the fund’s dissolution. For tax purposes, the company will provide a final report at year-end detailing any capital gains or losses associated with the liquidation, per the press release.

In January, VanEck announced the liquidation of its Bitcoin Strategy ETF, citing performance, liquidity, and low investor interest. The ETF, which primarily invested in Bitcoin futures, was set to be delisted after January 30.

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Altcoin

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows surge six-fold, Ether ETF outflows slow down

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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. saw a significant jump in net positive flows while spot Ether ETFs outflows slowed down.

According to data from SoSoValue, the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs logged outflows of $211.15 million on Sep. 5, a surge of over six times compared to the $37.29 million outflows recorded the previous day.

Fidelity’s FBTC led the lot with $149.5 million leaving the fund. Biwise’s BITB, Grayscale’s GBTC, and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust followed with recorded outflows of $30 million, $23.2 million, and $8.4 million, respectively. 

Notably, Fidelity’s FBTC also saw the largest outflows over the last seven days, with $374 million withdrawn, surpassing the $227 million in outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.

The largest spot BTC fund, BlackRock’s IBIT, with over $20.91 billion in total inflows, remained neutral on the day, along with the eight remaining BTC ETFs.

Total daily trading volume for the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped to $1.35 billion on Sep. 5, down from $1.41 billion the previous day. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 0.9% over the past day, trading at $56,327 per data from crypto.news.

Bitcoin’s price retreat happened as a sense of fear spread in the crypto industry. The closely watched crypto fear and greed index dropped to the extreme fear zone of 22, its lowest level in over a month, per data from Alternative. This fear is likely driven by ongoing concerns about a potential U.S. recession following a string of weak economic data.

Additionally, institutional demand for Bitcoin has weakened, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing outflows for seven consecutive trading days, shedding over $1 billion since Aug. 27.

Meanwhile, the nine spot Ether ETFs also showed bearish trends but with significantly smaller net outflows of $152.72K on Aug. 5 compared to the previous day, according to SoSoValue. Grayscale’s ETHE recorded $7.4 million in outflows, while the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust nearly offset this with $7.2 million in inflows.

The remaining seven spot ETH funds saw no activity on the day.

The total trading volume for the nine Ether ETFs fell to $108.59 million on Sep. 5 from $145.86 million on Sep. 4. At the time of publication, Ethereum’s (ETH) price dipped by 0.9%, exchanging hands at $2,378.

Ethereum’s fear and greed index also fell, reaching the fear zone of 34, reflecting growing uncertainty and cautious sentiment among investors in the market.

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Theo Crypto News

Altcoin

Dragonfly-incubated stablecoin AUSD goes live on Sui

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The Sui blockchain is broadening its stablecoin offerings by adding Agora’s AUSD, following its earlier launches on Ethereum and Avalanche.

Agora, a stablecoin company backed by Dragonfly, has launched its Agora Dollar (AUSD) stablecoin on Sui, the layer-1 blockchain network following the prior rollout on Ethereum and Avalanche.

The launch is part of Sui’s strategy to bolster its decentralized finance ecosystem and attract institutional users. To date, nearly $60 million in AUSD has been minted, with the majority of liquidity concentrated on the Ethereum network.

Agora Dollar’s concentration among blockchains | Source: DefiLlama

By integrating first-class assets like AUSD natively on the network, Sui is empowering developers and offering essential access to DeFi for a new class of institutional users.

Gap Kim, Global Head of Marketing for Sui Foundation.

As of Sept. 5, over 62% of AUSD’s liquidity is on Ethereum, with 37% on Avalanche, according to data from DefiLlama.

Agora bets on compliance with VanEck

In April, Agora raised $12 million in funding led by Dragonfly to fuel its stablecoin platform launch, emphasizing regulatory compliance. The funding round saw participation from other prominent investors, including Wintermute Ventures, Galaxy, and Consensys. Agora’s reserve fund is managed by VanEck, one of the world’s largest exchange-traded fund issuers, further cementing the company’s commitment to compliance.

Agora’s move to Sui aligns with the blockchain’s recent efforts to enhance its offerings. The launch follows Grayscale Investments’ introduction of two crypto investment trusts, including one offering exposure to Sui, which is “redefining the smart contract blockchain,” according to Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, head of product & research at Grayscale.

Looking ahead, Agora plans to continue expanding its reach by launching AUSD on other blockchains such as Arbitrum and Optimism, further solidifying its presence in the decentralized finance space.

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