Berachain, a popular Polychain-backed layer-1 network, is expected to launch its airdrop in 2024, according to most Polymarket users.
Berachain airdrop odds are rising
A Polymarket poll with over $669,000 in funds places the odds that Berachain will launch its token this year at 67%. This poll has been accurate before as users accurately predicted the recent Scroll (SCR) airdrop. They also predicted the confirmed Swell airdrop.
Another Polymarket poll with $55,528 places the probability of the Berachain airdrop happening this year at 72%, up from this month’s low of 42%.
Berachain is one of many upcoming layer-1 networks in the blockchain industry. It is also one of the best-funded platforms, having raised millions of dollars from well-known investors such as Polychain, Hack, Framework Ventures, and Brevan Howard Digital assets.
The network raised $42 million in April 2023, followed by another $100 million in March this year, giving it a unicorn status with a $1 billion valuation.
Berachain, which is focused on Decentralized Finance, has made a lot of progress since its last fundraising in March. It launched the public testnet bArtio B2 in June. It recently partnered with Binance, which integrated its testnet, raising the possibility that it will list the token when it goes public.
Berachain ecosystem is growing
Berachain has attracted several developers who have launched various projects on the network. For example, BEX is a platform for swapping tokens and providing liquidity, Honey is a platform for minting and redeeming Berachain’s native stablecoin, and Bend allows users to supply and borrow the $HONEY token.
Many mainstream networks have launched their airdrops this year. Wormhole (W), a leading bridging solution, launched its airdrop a few months ago, and has achieved a fully diluted valuation of $2.8 billion. ZKsync (ZK) has achieved an FDV of $2.6 billion, while EigenLayer is valued at $5.3 billion.
Berachain’s key challenge will be growing in a highly competitive market, where blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, Base, and Tron dominate. It will also compete with Injective, the DeFi-focused network backed by Mark Cuban, Binance, and Pantera.
Pi coin, one of the most anticipated crypto projects, is gearing up for its mainnet launch, possibly in December 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.
Pi developers are working to transition the network to the Open Network, which will allow pioneers to convert their tokens into fiat currencies.
As part of this transition, they are focusing on two key aspects. First, they are conducting Know Your Customer verification for millions of pioneers, a process they hope will eliminate bots.
There are signs that more pioneers—or Pi miners—are joining the network to complete the verification process. In a statement on Oct. 16, the developers requested more validators to join the network and reduce the wait time. These validators are rewarded in Pi coin, which they can eventually convert to fiat currencies.
As the Grace Period deadlines approach, more KYC Validators are needed to handle the recent influx of KYC requests, help reduce wait times for Pioneers awaiting verification and increase the throughput of the KYC process for the network to reach its Open Network goals. The…
Second, Pi Network is working to increase the number of decentralized applications on the network.
The goal is to ensure that Pi crypto coin will have adequate utility when it becomes a publicly traded coin. According to the developers, they will need at least 100 applications that solve real-world problems. The apps must also be unique and not mere clones of existing platforms.
Additionally, Pi Network will only move to the Open Network when external factors are favorable. They are hoping for a bull market in the crypto industry to boost the coin’s chances of performing well. Other external factors, such as wars, pandemics, and new regulatory issues, could also influence the mainnet launch.
Pi coin crypto and other tap-to-earn tokens
A common question is whether the Pi coin has any value. For now, the token does not have value as it remains in the enclosed mainnet, where it has been since December 2021.
When a coin is in an enclosed mainnet, it cannot be transferred to people outside the network. The coin will only gain value when it moves to the Open Network, either later this year or in 2025. It remains unclear at what price the token will start trading or what its fully diluted valuation will be when it launches.
However, judging by the recent performance of popular tap-to-earn tokens. Notcoin (NOT) token has retreated by over 77% from its highest point in May, while Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) has crashed by 71%. Other tokens like Pixelverse, Dogs, and Catizen have also slumped.
Since Pi Network was the original tap-to-earn network, there are rising odds that its token will drop after the airdrop as many pioneers may sell their tokens.
The DeepBook token was one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies on Oct. 15 after its much-awaited airdrop.
DeepBook (DEEP) token jumped to a high of $0.0380, up by over 261% from its lowest level on Monday. Its market cap rose to over $85 million, while its fully diluted valuation soared to $339 million.
Developed by former Meta Platforms engineers, DeepBook has become one of the biggest players in the Sui (SUI) ecosystem. DeepBook offers a platform that provides higher liquidity, high throughput, low latency, and transparent trading.
Data shows that DeepBook has become one of the biggest players in the Sui Blockchain. According to DeFi Llama, the network handled over $65 million in volume in the last seven days. This makes it the third-biggest decentralized exchange network after Cetus and Turbos.
DeepBook distributed the DEEP tokens to 100,000 early supporters, who received the DBClaimNFT a few months ago. The token will be used to pay for trading fees on the DeepBook platform, provide liquidity, and facilitate governance of the network.
Dilution is a major concern
According to its website, DeepBook has a maximum supply of 10 billion DEEP tokens and an initial circulating supply of 2.5 billion.
The challenge, therefore, is that long-term holders can expect more dilution over the next seven years as the remaining tokens are released to the market. Token unlocks are highly dilutive since they introduce more coins into the market, reducing the value of existing tokens.
The next potential catalyst for the DeepBook token will be more exchange listings by centralized exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Most of the current trading happens on centralized and decentralized platforms like Bybit, Gate, MEXC, and Cetus.
DeepBook faces the risk of suffering a sharp reversal, as most newly listed tokens rise and then experience a significant decline. For example, Wormhole (W) token initially soared to $1.8632 after its airdrop and has since dropped by over 83%.
ZkSync (ZK) token initially rose to $0.2942 in June and has dropped by over 54% to $0.1337. Likewise, Hamster Kombat rose to $0.0132 and then plunged to $0.0040.
A potential hope for DeepBook’s token is that the crypto industry has improved, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to $66,000 and the crypto fear and greed index hitting the greed level of 60. Its token could continue rising if this crypto recovery continues.
Scroll, the fast-growing zero-knowledge layer-2 network, confirmed that it would launch its airdrop on Oct. 19.
Scroll (SCR) pre-market futures plunged to a record low of $1.18 on Friday, Oct. 11, as traders remained concerned about recent airdrops. Its lowest point was below its weekly high of $1.74.
Most recent high-profile airdrops have flopped. Wormhole’s token has retreated by over 83% from its listing price, Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) has dropped by 72% from its all-time high, and Catizen (CATI) has fallen significantly.
This retreat is partly because the broader crypto market is not doing wel, with the fear and greed index stuck below 45. Bitcoin has also failed to move above the resistance point at $65,000.
Another likely reason is that many recent airdrops leave a substantial number of tokens locked. Wormhole has 2.58 billion tokens in circulation against a maximum supply of 10 billion. Similarly, ZkSync has 3.6 billion tokens circulating and a maximum supply of 21 billion.
Scroll will have a maximum supply of 1 billion SCR tokens. Of these, 23% will go to contributing members, while 15% will be allocated for airdrops, with 7% in the first one. The rest will be distributed to investors, the foundation, and ecosystem growth.
To be fair, these futures don’t provide a clear picture of what will happen after the airdrop since they are offered by just one exchange, and their volume is relatively small. Its 24-hour turnover was just 854,320 contracts.
Scroll is embarking on its first step towards decentralization.
Scroll has emerged as one of the fastest-growing blockchains this year, attracting 103 developers in decentralized finance.
According to DeFi Llama, it has over 83,000 addresses and a total value locked of $807 million. It also has over $103 million in stablecoins, a good amount for a network that was launched a year ago.
The biggest dApps in its network are Pencils Protocol, AAVE, Tranches Yield, Tokan Exchange, and Kelp DAO. Pencils, the largest dApp in the ecosystem, is a farming network that allows its 709,000 users to generate returns.
Scroll has also become a notable player in the DEX industry, where its dApps handled tokens worth $178 million in the last seven days. These numbers make it a larger blockchain than Cardano, Near Protocol, and Algorand.
TON ecosystem tokens recently listed on major crypto exchanges have significantly dropped.
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The largest tokens by market capitalization in the TON ecosystem have seen a sharp decline in the past few days. Relative to the all-time high (ATH), the drop has reached 30-50%.
Notably, many of them were recently listed on major crypto exchanges. These include Dogs (DOGS), Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), and Catizen (CATI). The Toncoin (TON) token has also dropped significantly — more than 8% in a week.
Top TON ecosystem tokens by market capitalization | Source: CoinMarketCap
The market capitalization of the TON ecosystem tokens continues to decline — trading volumes fell by more than 27% to $675 million. The ratio of buy and sell orders on the Binance crypto exchange suggests that traders are rushing to get rid of once-coveted tokens.
DOGS plummeted by 58%, but developers have a plan B
Since its listing on Aug. 26, the DOGS token, 81.5% of which was supplied by the community, has plummeted by more than 58% to $0.0006599. It is noteworthy that there is no vesting period, therefore users were able to trade their DOGS immediately after the airdrop and, as a result, sell them immediately after the listing.
Amid the late token price collapse at the end of September, the DOGS team announced an upcoming token burn to reduce the total DOGS. Typically, token burning aims to increase its value — the number of unclaimed coins that need to be removed from circulation will be voted on by the asset holders.
Hamster Kombat did not live up to expectations after the airdrop
The excitement of the Hamster Kombat community turned bearish shortly after the token distribution. Despite the initial interest in the project, the active selling of HMSTR tokens led to their significant depreciation last week.
At the moment of listing, the coin price on some exchanges reached $0.014, but massive sell-offs quickly reduced the token’s value. Since its launch on Sep. 26, the token has lost 50% in value.
The catalyst for the fall was apparently the unsuccessful airdrop and listing. Users repeatedly complained about the unfair distribution of rewards, the postponement of dates and changes in rules, the low starting price of the HMSTR token trades, and the problem with selling HMSTR: the reward for many project participants for tapping the hamster was only a couple of dollars.
Such users needed help selling tokens since many exchanges restrict opening orders.
However, despite the rapid fall in the rate, open interest in HMSTR Futures remains stable. According to Coinglass, this figure has been at $60 million since the beginning of October.
HMSTR futures OI | Source: Coinglass
In many ways, Hamster Kombat repeated the story of Catizen — another Telegram-based project that disappointed users after the airdrop.
An unexpected change in the rules of the game or why they started to dump CATI
CATI also announced the rating of the leaders of the fall of tokens in the TON ecosystem: like other similar projects, the coin’s price has fallen by 50% since Sep. 20.
The rise and fall of Catizen are reminiscent of the path of Hamster Kombat. Shortly before the start of the distribution, the team unexpectedly changed the rules of the game.
Initially, 43% of the total supply of CATI tokens was intended for players. However, the developers unexpectedly changed the conditions, so the community got only 30%.
The community’s discontent was not limited to this. Soon after the airdrop, it turned out that user spending in the game influenced the criteria for distributing tokens. Those who invested money in the game, not time, received a significant advantage.
After this, many players shared stories about how they took leading places but received very few rewards. As a result, a wave of discontent with the hashtag #catizenscam swept through social networks.
1 Airdrop is on June/July 2 Most impt criteria is vKitty/s or cat level 3 Claimed tokens will be received before Sep 28 10AM UTC. 4 Airdrop is 43% 5 If you can’t hold you won’t be rich (then token dumps)
Airdrops are considered one of the most popular strategies for attracting users. Many projects launched on the Telegram platform used them.
For example, Dogs, Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and similar projects actively awarded users coins for simple actions. As a result, tokens distributed through airdrops cannot maintain long-term interest or preserve their value.
Airdrops, used to increase project engagement and distribute tokens more widely among users, have probably lost their former influence as users have become oversaturated with such strategies.
For example, KeyRock experts analyzed 62 airdrops in six blockchains since the beginning of 2024. The data showed that 88.7% of the tokens demonstrated a significant price decline within 90 days after the distribution. Only a few of them showed sustainability.
Token price movements after airdrops | Source: KeyRock
At the same time, small airdrops have shown greater resilience in the short term. This is probably due to the low selling pressure during the token launch. However, in the longer term, tokens still fall over three months.
Moreover, Telegram-based games are still young, and investors may still determine whether the demand for them will last. This also fuels users’ tendency to sell off tokens, which ultimately negatively affects their price.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn told crypto.news that newly launched tokens in the TON ecosystem often follow a typical hype cycle.
“Initially, short-term expectations tend to be excessively high, while long-term expectations are often underestimated.”
Maartunn, CryptoQuant analyst
He also visualized the number of Hamster Token transactions relative to all TON transactions. The trend line illustrates the classic hype cycle model.
Performance of the HMSTR token. Source: CryptoQuant
Among other recently launched coins, Hamster Kombat is one of the most popular. However, Maartunn noted that many meme coins will eventually fail; only those with good fundamentals and a strong network can survive.
EigenLayer’s token continued its strong recovery as investors bought the dip following last week’s airdrop.
EIGEN unlocks and TVL retreat
The EigenLayer (EIGEN) token rebounded, reaching a high of $3.86, its highest level since Oct. 2, and 26% above its all-time low.
EIGEN’s rebound occurred after the founder announced that the network was shifting focus to Web3 applications post-airdrop. This is important since EigenLayer does not have a consumer-facing application. Instead, it secures several actively validated services like AltLayer, Ethos, and Lagrange.
The rebound also came after a hacker stole 1,673,645 tokens valued at over $6.8 million. The hacker moved these tokens through a decentralized swap platform and then transferred the stablecoins to centralized exchanges.
Community Update:
In an isolated incident this morning, an email thread involving one investor’s transfer of tokens into custody was compromised by a malicious attacker.
As a result, 1,673,645 EIGEN tokens were erroneously transferred to the attacker’s address. The attacker…
EIGEN token holders face two significant risks ahead. First, there is a dilution risk since EigenLayer has 187 million tokens in circulation against a maximum cap of over 1.6 billion tokens.
According to the developers, the network will unlock and distribute 67 million tokens, or 4% of the initial supply, in the first year. These unlocks will happen every Tuesday over the next 12 months, with 3% going to Ethereum and liquid staking token stakers. 1% of the tokens will go to EIGEN stakers and operators.
Token unlocks are typically bearish because they increase the number of tokens in circulation, diluting existing holders.
The second risk is that demand for restaking is waning. According to DeFi Llama, EigenLayer’s total value locked has dropped to $10.7 billion, down from over $20 billion earlier this year. In Ethereum terms, the network secures 4.43 million Ethereum, down from the year-to-date high of 5.34 million.
A likely reason for this is that Ethereum (ETH) staking market cap has fallen in the past few weeks. It has retreated by almost 8% in the last 24 hours to $83 billion, according to StakingRewards.
On the hourly chart, the EIGEN token bottomed at $3.04 on Oct. 6 and then bounced back to $3.8, its highest point since Oct. 2.
It has risen above the 25-period moving average, and most importantly, it has formed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. In price action analysis, this is one of the most bullish signals in the market.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that EigenLayer’s token will bounce back and possibly retest the all-time high of $4.58, up by 23% from the current level.
After teasing the launch of the Magic Eden token ME in August, the Magic Eden Foundation has provided the latest update on when the airdrop will happen.
The Magic Eden Foundation has not released a launch date for the ME token. However, in its update on Sept. 30, it noted that a claim simulation will take place in October.
The token claim will be available via the Magic Eden Wallet.
ME token simulation in October
Anticipation for ME, as with other major recent platform token airdrops, is massive. To prepare the community, Magic Eden plans to simulate the token claim through its native wallet. According to the post on X, the project will launch a test token in the wallet to show the process of claiming ME tokens.
Magic Eden Wallet’s mobile version will allow users to connect all their wallets, including desktop, mobile, and hardware, and view their total ME claim from one interface.
ME tokenomics to follow
The token set for the simulation will be just a “simple test token.” Magic Eden has warned users not to get overly excited about it, as the token will not have any utility or value.
However, once the test exercise is completed, the ME Foundation will unveil the project’s tokenomics. It also plans to reveal the token generation event for ME after the simulation event. This TGE could catalyze further growth for Magic Eden.
In August, Magic Eden announced that the new ME token will be central to the non-fungible token marketplace’s decentralized autonomous organization. In addition to participating in DAO governance, holders will have other benefits, such as access to cross-chain trading in the web3 ecosystem.
Data for August 2024 showed that Magic Eden strengthened its grip on the NFT marketplace as its market share hit 37%.
In comparison, Blur’s market size fell to about 25%. Meanwhile, OpenSea, which recently received a SEC Wells Notice, saw its overall dominance shrink to 20%.
Hamster Kombat’s pre-market futures traded within a narrow band as anticipation grew for its upcoming airdrop and exchange listings.
The Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) token was trading at $0.011 on Sunday, Sep. 22 as the countdown to the airdrop continues. It has dropped by over 96% from its highest point this year.
Hamster Kombat airdrop is coming up
This price action is happening as the Hamster Kombat’s team prepares for the airdrop, which is expected to occur on Sep. 26.
Analysts believe that this will be one of the biggest airdrops this year due to Hamster Kombat’s popularity.
Over the past few months, the tap-to-earn platform has attracted over 300 million global users. It boasts a popular YouTube channel, amassing over 37.6 million subscribers since it was launched in May.
Its videos have been watched over 1.1 billion times.
Hamster Kombat’s X and Telegram accounts also have millions of actively engaged users. That number is growing with users receiving HMSTR tokens when they follow and engage with its platform.
Hamster’s airdrop will let fans accumulate the HMSTR tokens, and convert them into fiat currencies.
Historically, most tap-to-earn tokens often rise and then retreat after their airdrop. Notcoin (NOT), a popular platform with over 40 million users, initially jumped to a high of $0.02925 and then retreated by over 80% to the current $0.0078.
Similarly, Pixelverse soared to $0.1745 shortly after its airdrop and has crashed by over 90% to a record low of $0.0070.
Most recently, Catizen (CATI) surged to a record high of $1.20 and has pulled back by over 26% to the current $0.87.
The key challenge for tap-to-earn and play-to-earn platforms is how to keep their users engaged in the ecosystem, especially when the tokens are not doing well.
Some of the most popular play-to-earn tokens like Decentraland, Sandbox, Gala, and Axie Infinity have dropped sharply from their all-time highs as the number of users in their ecosystems fell.
Decentraland’s market cap has dropped from about $7 billion in 2021 to $576 million while Axie Infinity has moved from over $10 billion to $749 million.
Move-to-earn platforms like Sweatcoin and StepN, which were highly popular before their airdrops have all dropped sharply. Their market caps have dropped to $58 million and $348 million as activity in their networks has dropped.
The challenge is letting people become more engaged in the network when the token is not doing well. Therefore, there is a risk that Hamster Kombat’s token will rise initially and then retreat as the hype fades.
EigenLayer’s pre-market futures have bounced back after falling to a record low of $2.17 last week.
EigenLayer (EIGEN) rose to an intraday high of $2.73, up by over 25% from its lowest level on Sep. 7. However, it remains 30% below its all-time high.
OKX’s pre-market futures allow people to trade tokens before they are airdropped. These futures often have thin volumes, making them highly volatile, and their price action does not typically predict what will happen when the airdrop occurs.
The rebound came after the EigenLayer Foundation announced details of the second season of its stakedrop, set to begin on Sep. 17. The first season of the airdrop ended on Sep. 7.
This season will see 70 million EIGEN tokens allocated to stakers and operators with up to 10 million tokens going to ecosystem partners. Six million tokens will be allocated to the community, including open-source contributors and early supporters, while the remaining tokens will go to Protocol Guild.
1/ We’re excited to announce the EIGEN Season 2 Stakedrop in preparation for unlock!
Season 2 will recognize key contributors and participants across the ecosystem:
☑️ Stakers & Operators ☑️ Ecosystem Partners ☑️ Community
EigenLayer has become one of the biggest players in the crypto industry, where it offers staking solutions. Data by DeFi Llama shows that it has become the second-biggest player in the DeFi industry with over $10.9 billion in total value locked.
Restaking is a technology that allows Ethereum (ETH) stakers to reuse their tokens across other protocols. In addition to EigenLayer, other popular liquid staking solutions in the crypto industry include Symbiotic, Puffer Finance, and Renzo.
EigenLayer’s price during its airdrop is still unknown, but analysts expect it to be one of the biggest listings of the year. A Polymarket poll with $1.9 million in assets estimates that EigenLayer will have a fully diluted market cap of less than $10 billion.
