What caused Bitcoin and Ethereum to plunge into a liquidation spiral? With traders losing millions, how did market conditions shift so quickly, and what’s next?
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The crypto market is playing a game of hide and seek, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) leading the charge as they hover around key price levels.
The entire crypto market has been in a state of distress, losing approximately 15% of its value between Jul. 29 and Aug. 28. The market cap has declined from $2.48 trillion to $2.11 trillion, reflecting the widespread bearish sentiment.
As of Aug. 28, Bitcoin has taken a fresh tumble, dropping over 4% in the last 24 hours to trade at $60,000 levels. This decline followed a near dip to $58,000 before a slight recovery.
Just a month ago, on Jul. 27, BTC was comfortably sitting at $69,400, marking a sharp decline of about 14%.
On Aug. 27, spot BTC ETFs experienced heavy outflows, with around $127 million pulled out, marking the first day of outflows after eight consecutive days of inflows. This shift could be a key factor behind the sharp correction we’re witnessing.
Meanwhile, ETH has mirrored BTC’ moves, with its price dipping nearly 4% to its current level of $2,500. However, ETH’ journey over the past month has been even rockier, experiencing a 22% drop in just 30 days.
The challenges for ETH have been intensified by spot ETH ETFs, which saw cumulative outflows of over $115 million between Aug. 15 and Aug. 27, with no signs of positive inflows.
Massive liquidations rock the crypto market
The recent sharp downturn in the crypto market can be traced to several interconnected events, creating a perfect storm for the sell-off we’re witnessing.
In the last 24 hours as of Aug.28, nearly $320 million in crypto positions have been liquidated, according to Coinglass data.
A vast majority of these liquidations hit long traders, who faced losses of $261 million, dwarfing the $58 million in short liquidations, indicating that many traders were betting on the market going up, but the market had other plans.
Bitcoin led the charge in these liquidations, with over $101 million wiped out. Of this, $82 million came from long positions, meaning traders who were confident Bitcoin would continue rising were caught off guard.
Ethereum wasn’t far behind, with nearly $96 million in liquidations, again with most coming from long positions. But why did the market take such a turn?
Just a few days ago, on Aug. 25, Bitcoin’ funding rate on the DyDx exchange hit its highest level since BTC’ all-time high in March, according to Santiment.
Funding rates are essentially payments exchanged between buyers and sellers of perpetual contracts to keep their positions open. When these rates spike, it often signals that traders are heavily favoring one side of the market, in this case, going long on Bitcoin.
This overconfidence in long positions was partly fueled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’ recent comments, where he hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September.
Many traders took this as a sign to load up on Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting the market to rally. However, when funding rates get too high in one direction, they can become a ticking time bomb.
Santiment analysts noted that extreme funding rates often lead to liquidations, driving the market in the opposite direction, which is exactly what happened here.
Adding fuel to the fire, news broke on Tuesday that a federal grand jury had returned a revised indictment against former President Donald Trump.
Trump, who has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate for the upcoming U.S. presidential election, could influence the market’ sentiment.
CNBC reported that the uncertainty around this political event likely caused traders to go “risk-off,” meaning they sold off their crypto holdings to move into safer assets like cash.
What’s next for the crypto market?
Despite the recent dip, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is still holding strong above crucial support levels.
Michaël van de Poppe, a respected crypto analyst, highlights that Bitcoin remains above a key level at $61,000. According to him, maintaining this level could pave the way for a new all-time high.
He notes that with the current momentum, especially with the excitement around Bitcoin ETFs, there’s a strong possibility that BTC could push higher if it holds this support.
Meanwhile, Ali Martinez, a technical and on-chain analyst, observed that a significant number of top traders on Binance are going long on Bitcoin. In fact, nearly 65.22% of them are buying the dip, betting on a rebound.
CryptoCon, a Bitcoin technical analyst, believes that the recent low volatility phase is nothing new and is part of Bitcoin’s typical mid-cycle behavior. He notes that this phase mirrors similar periods in previous cycles, such as those in 2021, 2017, and 2013.
According to him, those who are prematurely calling the top may soon find themselves left behind as the market resumes its upward trend.
However, not all analysts are entirely bullish. Emperor, another respected figure in the crypto space, offers a more cautious perspective. He has advised traders to be careful, particularly with Bitcoin’s failure to sustain above key monthly and quarterly levels.
Emperor suggests that the best strategy right now is to take quick trades rather than hold onto positions for too long.
He views the recent price action as a temporary setback rather than the start of a bearish trend but emphasizes the importance of managing risk and waiting for the price to react before making any large moves.
Caution ahead
For the crypto market to stage a meaningful rebound, BTC must first hold firmly above the critical $60,000 level. This support zone is essential for maintaining market confidence.
From there, the next challenge is to break through the $65,000 resistance, a level that has previously acted as a barrier.
If Bitcoin can clear this hurdle, it could pave the way for a broader market recovery, with ETH likely to follow suit. Once ETH stabilizes and gains upward momentum, other altcoins could also see a resurgence.
However, the U.S. presidential election race is heating up, and the candidates’ policies on crypto could largely impact market sentiment.
Additionally, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’ next move, with a possible interest rate cut in September that could either bolster or dampen market recovery efforts.
While the potential for Bitcoin to reach new heights exists, it’s important to always manage your risk carefully and avoid making impulsive decisions.
The crypto market is notoriously volatile, so staying informed and only investing what you can afford to lose is the best approach.
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